Hungry for Options?

Intermediate top

2012-02-06T23:16:00.000-05:00

All Indices, globally, have come a long way since my hesitantly bullish post in December. Its fun to re-read what I had written with so much hesitation. The markets have just achieved so much in so little time that I had no clue about timing. Having said that and having seeing such a rapid run up, I think its now prudent to lock in some gains and move to cash position. Usually shorting is not a good idea, however, if you are patient and disciplined enough, I think shorting some very-stretched and liquid equities may not be a bad idea. For example, XHB XLV NKE WMT HD INTC MSFT CAT GILD AMGN JCP are safer shorts at this stage. Moreover, I would buy longer term put spread on QQQ, which looks stretched and will correct to yield profits on the short side.

This coming correction may be short lived and that's one thing that needs to be watched very closely. The markets could correct for a week and rise sharply again to make new highs. I think currently the underlying feeling still is that the markets want to go higher as all signs suggest pricing to go north - e.g., LEI indicators, PMI, Employment numbers, good house in bad neighborhood thesis etc. Hence, once the correction starts, don't short and bet the farm. :). There may be a bigger correction in Summer'12.

Watch for $USD to bounce, which will correct precious metals again. TLT will get bid up on any correction but will eventually roll over once the correction ends abruptly.

Apple's iPhone derivative plays

2012-01-24T22:56:00.002-05:00

Derivative plays on Apple's success!!!

Watchlist

2012-01-24T00:02:00.010-05:00

1/30-12 : JCP AMGN MON HD MAR CAT K

RGLD XOM WMT MCD BA GOOG IBM AMZN

STX SUN JDAS AET AMED CERN

GLD NEM SSRI CCJ

QCOM INTC SMH QQQ (sell calls) JNPR

Hows 2012 for $SPX?

2011-12-26T23:07:00.000-05:00

Lately, since August'11, we all feel the increased volatility in all markets. $VIX shot up in August this year and reminded people of the horrible pricing action in 2008. Currently, there are many fundamental issues that remain unresolved - globally and locally! The tape conveniently chooses any of these events to justify the market pricing changes for any given day. However, its interesting to note the weekly $SPX chart over longer duration, say 10 years. It quickly becomes clear that the current market swings are nothing but a healthy attempt of the 50EMA (green line) to test the 150 EMA (red line). So far so good. 50EMA has not even closely approached the 150-200EMA yet. On a weekly chart, this 50EMA line doesn't cross over 150 or 200EMA often and when it does, it stays there for at least 2 years. Earlier this year in January, 50EMA has crossed over and above the 150-200 EMA. Hence, I would dare to think say that it'd stay over for another year at least. In other words, 2012 might be a positive year for all stock indexes. I cannot believe that I am writing this out (Remember, this blog was meant to be for record keeping of thoughts after fundamental and technical analysis - no emotions allowed :))

It sounds absurd as we constantly hear the tape that talks about all the issues we are facing globally. However, for reference, tape started on SubPrime issue much earlier than the actual crash in 2008. The market kept making new high on divergences in MACD, RSI and even NYHL. Similarly, the market may make new highs in 2012 on weakening fundamentals before finally crashing in 2013 onwards. Besides, 2012 is an election year. Thus, Ben and his team will do anything to ensure common man doesn't feel the economic boxing glove in his face.

No one can predict timing, but this is a general overview of how the scenario might unfold I feel. Lets watch this closely and see what happens.

Update 12/27/11 : As I looked at other weekly charts for 10 year timing, TLT looks like its ready to roll over, which is consistent with the scenario painted above. Oddly though, dollar may slow its decline and stay flat or higher with transitory wild swings either ways. Gold is a tough one to talk about - it currently looks like it wants to touch 1300s from where it broke out in Jan'11. SLV might get bid before gold will after it tests $25/Oz level in the near future (2-3 months). Crude looks like its headed higher... CVX, XOM look ready to make new highs

AMGN looks like a good buy on a pullback

Pay attention to UDR, AD ratio etc. when analyzing money flows between sectors and/or particular equity of interest for longer term investment

On rising markets - keep an eye on the following underperformers with relatively good fundamentals and/or earning estimates-

HES VLO ANR RIG PBR (energy plays on improving economy viewpoint)

SID GGB (Brazil 2016 play)

ESE(smart grid play - steady performer from earnings standpoint)

MCP REE (rare earth play in improving demand)

IPI CF (potash based on agri demand)

HSFT LFC (china plays)

GDXJ PAAS (Gold/Silver play)

STJ TEVA ILMN (Healthcare plays)

BRCM HPQ AAPL ARMH (technology plays)

CLWR RMBS ALU S (4G plays)

2011-11-04T00:44:00.000-04:00

MA NUAN ANF WMT INTC HUM GRMN K ILMN HON RGLD

list 10th oct 2011

2011-10-09T23:56:00.000-04:00

remx ptm brf ewz x anr aa cenx tbt nflx ilmn EPI CCJ URRE

Brazilian stocks - GFA GOL

China- LFC HSFT DANG

BMC

Market Notes

2011-08-08T22:05:00.000-04:00

22nd Sept. - TLT TEVA MHS ILMN ESRX HON GS LLL PAL SWHC DRYS REMX EWZ PBR ANR GFA DANG

20TH Sept - new highs -- amzn aapl COSt KMB ORLY DLTR BBBY PNRA GMCR PCLN ATHN FAST WFM bmy KO DUK ITC TJX SO V MA

Keep an eye on VXX, VIXY VIIX TLT, IEF & GLD - Would you believe that TLT is seeing bid up on a downgrade of USA to AA+ ... Go figure!!!! At some point the panic will subside and sanity will prevail... watch for TLT to break down at that point... Also, if GLD is a safe heaven due to perceived currency crisis - why isn't SLV rising? Why isn't GDX and GDXJ just stay put... even /CL is getting sold insanely... In theory, lower oil should reduce the operating costs for these gold miners...combine this will higher gold prices... GDX should rise to heaven!!!!!

$VIX has not made a white candle yet...

Watch FXF cree cstr

All high fliers are getting hammered- DECK CMG AMZN GOOG ANF CF MA CRM PCP NTAP TDC PCLN NFLX APKT ARUN ALTR CAVM === money is definitely leaving tech stocks..

Short - MMYT OPEN P LNKD

CSX AAPL acted funny

2011-03-31T00:46:00.000-04:00

3/30/11 - Market is rising again but key leaders like CSX and AAPL are notably weak.

3/31 - HMOs, WFMI, Industrials, Refiners, containers (SSW, DAC), IYT

entry points - MCD QCOM

State Union

2011-01-26T18:21:00.000-05:00

Yesterday's state union address by Obama clearly states that alternative energy is the next focus area when it comes to federal funding programs etc. The field of alternative energy is very wide and focusing on one technology or approach is futile at this point. Thus, I'll monitor everything and hopefully the cream will rise to the top by means of price action or earning reports.

Today's market action was interesting - looks like folks are ready to rise the precious metals train - gold, silver etc. Also, XLE, XLI, Refiners, OIH, and Coals were on fire. It'll be interesting to watch if this all reverses to the downside and today was just an odd day. I am in the latter camp. I believe that money is leaving quietly, the breadth is weak and everyone is bullish to the limits. The boat is almost ready to topple as the weight on one side is just not healthy for this boat to stay afloat. Finally, the market is almost making new highs but without $TRAN this time - Dow theory believers- you know what this means. The funniest thing is consumer discretionary stocks are making new highs and energy prices are rising too... There used to be a negative correlation between these two but then whoever said that these are normal times, need to think again.

New highs with too many gaps...

2011-01-14T14:52:00.000-05:00

This market is melting higher but leaving behind too many gaps in major stocks and indices alike... This makes me wonder if this move is meant to wipe out the weak shorts before the market comes down hard again to trade at realistic valuations...

NYAD

2010-12-15T07:56:00.001-05:00

NYAD

$NYUPV: Amongst favorites

$NYUD:$NYUPV: Use this to spot bottoms

$NYADV: Overbought/Oversold – bottom spotting

$NYUD:

$NYDNV: Ditto to $NYADV.

$NYAD: Divergence in this and major indexes leads to trend change

$NAAD: Similar to NYAD but for Nasdaq index.

$NYMO $NAMO: OB/OS oscillators

$NYLOW:

$NYHGH

$SPX w/ P/C Ratios:

Chart school on StockCharts.com

Observations...

2010-12-04T00:39:00.000-05:00

EUR, YEN got bid today and USD sold off hard on weaker jobs report - Bernanke is scheduled to be on 60 min. this weekend... Last time he was on 60 min. on March 8th 2009, the following day became a major major bottom... Lets see if there is any significance to his appearance on 60 min. again.

$RUT is leading... $NDX, $DAX are looking tired instead of acting as a leader... $SOX is leading... $BSE, $SSEC and $BVSP are lagging... $NYA50R and $NYHL are showing negative divergences with major indexes prices. A healthy abrupt correction of more than 10% should follow suit at some point.

Heads - GLD/SLV goes higher ... Tails - GLD/SLV goes higher

2010-11-30T13:24:00.000-05:00

The classic inverse correlation between the reserve currency, i.e., USD$, is no longer the case... Recently, US dollar has risen from 76 to 81 but gold, silver or even other industrial metals have not corrected at all...Oil? Same thing. The hard commodities are no longer inversely correlated to US dollar. At least thats what appears to be the case - correct? Yes, it may be so - in the short term. I would encourage for one to wait for some more time (no one can predict timing and this is where people get burnt) and see for themselves how the prices readjust to reality in a jiffy.

Currently, the only reason for the dollar to rise is because Euro is going down due to debt concerns - the whole world is ready to crank up the printing presses. So, metals and commodities are acting as safe heavens. Hmm......

With patience of cats, stamina/persistence like dogs and strength of a rhino = One mighty meal that covers for the entire year!

Tech weak - CSX weak - rest all strong

2010-11-04T15:43:00.001-04:00

Entry points...

2010-10-31T22:23:00.000-04:00

VMW SNDK ADS CREE TSO JPM SNCR NTRS MMM LM CLB DNDN DIN VMC MHS NILE NTRI AMED WTI WDC HAR ESRX OSG JCG LLL LMT GD RTN VLO CLF X PETS PLCE SHLD SVU TGT OPEN MPEL ATHR DNN GGC TSRA DORM DVN

ORCL AMZN AMSC BIG WFMI TIF SYNA

popped 11/2/10- MHS ESRX VMC XHB PHM DRWI BKD SPG CSTR SOHU

tanked 11/2/10- ADM CLX ENR SHOO ABC
Watch - PH UNP YUM MCD CTSH FLR JCI JRCC HUM DVA EBAY

Note - The open interest on $DXY is steadily rising while the prices are going down, which suggests that reversal at some point is bound to happen... the question is WHEN!

Insider sellers- ETN FFIV CAVM MAR CCL NTGR BRCM

Here we go again... Amazing momentum in Tech (SMH QQQQ)

2010-10-27T15:58:00.000-04:00

Its becoming a common practice to open lower and recover to close either unchanged or even higher (in case of QQQQ). The strength in technology is just amazing. The charts speak for themselves, just look at SMH XLK QQQQ. SMH broke out today making new highs. Key stocks to watch in that sectors - LRCX KLAC BRCM and so many others. Until stocks like PCLN CMG FFIV BIDU AMZN RVBD and many more hot ones that are just heading higher no matter what break down hard, this market seems to be wanting to touch the previous highs (in case of $SPX that comes out to be 1220)... $NDX is already officially making new highs.

Unless something changes soon, this market is setting up to make a parabolic move higher. The catalysts that I will be watching in the near future that can actually change the character of this market are the Fed's meeting announcement and the Employment report. Past these two major events and the election, we will get a clear idea of where this market wants to go. But the trick is it will be too late to take positions by then. So, the best bet is to play put spreads and not be a hero. I am cashing out on my trades every morning and sometimes get back in if I get lucky or just stay on the sideline. This is a traders market.

Tech stocks: NETL MRVL ATHR INTC MSFT ARUN SIMG LLNW CTXS VMW NTAP RHT DRIV CAVM ODFL CRM ILMN NTGR EQIX FFIV RVBD AKAM RFMD CREE BCSI ARMH IACI TQNT QLGC SYNA AEHR CSCD FORM STEC QTM XRTX WDC STX ANAD WFR KLAC LRCX BRCM QCOM JNPR HPQ IBM CTSH INFY CRUS FCS TXN NSM CSCO ACN NVDA ORCL ADBE VRSN RIMM AAPL BIDU PCLN TZOO EXPE INFN DELL YHOO EBAY GRMN GOOG SNE AMD XLNX ADSK SNDK ASML LLTC

Others: SGG JO UTA BIIB CSTR

Shorting massively...

2010-10-19T13:19:00.001-04:00

Today is the onset... Short ORCL (look chart above) QQQQ MO

OCt 26 - WATCH - NOV KMB PG VLO NTRS CMI COH ATI CIT ASH DD ARMH X ATHR VECO PCAR SHW aks

Oct 27 - COP PG AFL OII FFIV EQIX

Dilemma - everything makes sense in retrospect

2010-10-11T23:02:00.000-04:00

We are at a classic stage, which I am sure if I were to look in retrospect a month from now, will be very easy to read but as of now, i.e., in current time and day, it is not so clear. Let me explain what my dilemma is - if one looks at the action lately, it looks choppy. The market appears to be overbought, is acting like it is overbought (based on market action, # of stocks above 50D EMA and candlestick patterns). However, if one looks at $NASI, $NAMO, and the MOSC indicators - all of them suggest that there is still some room left for the bull to take the prices up before the market is fully overbought. On the same token, one can interpret that the market has overcome its recent resistance and has entered into a no-resistance zone until $SPX sees 1210 (almost 50 points from here) but then there is a divergence in the price action and $NYHL - suggesting that the breadth is a tad weaker. Lastly, $VIX overreacted to the downside today and $USD looks ready to bounce... FXY looks toppy suggesting dollar may rally but then Tokyo has to rally in sympathy as well... Contrarily, FXE looks toppy suggesting that the correction in commodities & precious metals is not far from us. So how shall one interpret this? Does one say that the breath($NYHL) is likely to improve as we see the prices test previous highs OR that the market prices are already past the resistance on weaker breadth and is ready to go south? One month from now, its going to be real easy to see this and agree with either scenario because it will all be after the fact. Until then though, we wait for confirmation and avoid getting burnt!

Too much of anything is often not good!

2010-10-08T15:30:00.000-04:00

Do you consider yourself to be a smart investor/trader? Oversmart may be? How does one become smart anyway? by acquiring knowledge you say? Its correct. If one wants to outsmart others around him/herself, they have to gain edge over others and knowledge is surely one way of getting that. So, why am I asking all this? Often times we get knowledge by reading, listening or whatever source of information you follow. Now, coming to the point, today's market action after the release of job report would leave many of us who know what it means - simply puzzled! Right? Were we being oversmart in anticipating the market direction based on our knowledge of the reality? I mean shouldn't the markets be selling off on a not-so-good report? Shouldn't this be scary? But no, market gods decide otherwise and take this as an opportunity to buy. Really? These buyers must be seeing something that we are not you may say? Well may be. Or maybe not. Lets see how this works.

Currently, if its a bad news, then the hopes for QE2 go up and the market goes up. Then the market should go down on release of good news/data, correct? Wrong! Hope is the name of the game... QE2 is inevitable and the market wants to rally regardless. The bottomline is that the shorter-term market reaction is sometimes violent and sometimes slow and it often is misleading. Over the longer term though, it catches up with the reality. For example, there were many who pointed out the subprime issue in 2007, and most of 2008 but they kept loosing money if they bet against market at the first sign on subprime problem. It took time before market caught up with the fundamentals. Net, you cannot fight momentum, positive or negative. Momentum is key and its very important to know which way it is so that you pick that early on and ride to profits.

Flip Flop again...

2010-10-07T22:43:00.000-04:00

Yesterday energy, precious metals were getting bids and today they silently sold off on heavy volume while the overall indexes didn't move much at all. It looks like regardless of tomorrow's report, the precious metals market is positioned to correct and dollar may rally to counter the correction or vice versa, i.e., the dollar may rally and the precious metals market corrects because of that... The correction could easily spill over into copper and other metal plays... heck the whole market could come down as a result... Wait and watch... Meantime, I bought put spread on QQQQ and am hoping for a jolt down before the market heads back up... Overall though the market still has room to run on the upside so am kinda kicking myself for this half-ass conviction on my existing put position on the Qs.

Sector rotation...

2010-10-06T15:45:00.000-04:00

Tech leaders are getting slammed today - look at FFIV AKAM RVBD VMW RHT CRM BIDU TDC NTAP CTXS etc. ( QLGC RAX ISLN ELX N )

Watch for - CTSH INFY ACN IBM KLAC JNPR SMH PFCB NTGR BWA NKE

While Energy, Cyclicals and Transport are making new highs ... e.g., FCX MMM UNP CSX COP CVX GWW CMI BUCY KO PEP VZ FLR AMSC BEAV

Watch for - GVA MLM VMC CAT CRK APA coals and Nat gas players, PDE, APC BP, XRT

Beware of the silly market commentators (websites, CNBC etc.)

2010-09-30T12:56:00.000-04:00

Including me - I guess I am a market commentator as well when I write my opinion here for myself. However, I know for a fact that I am not impacting millions (let alone a single other person other than myself). Idiots like Cramer, market commentators on MarketWatch.com and countless other websites cannot say the same. Their commentary does fall on some naive (non-financial inexperienced individual) ears leading those idiots to loose money in turn. Its mutual - the naive traders/investors are equally responsible for their actions. However, the naive crowd can say one important thing - i.e., they believed that the sources they thought they were listening to were credible sources (in terms of qualification, market-knowledge, experience).

Now, you see that the responsibility to broadcast the opinion of the so-called expert opinion lies on the shoulders of media, e.g., CNBC, Marketwatch etc. Now, they should know better. The argument can go on and on. The point is, its better that the naive folks learn as quickly as they can that these experts and their opinions are most of the times incorrect. Very few are right on the money. Until the naive folks learn to weed out the right vs wrong, it makes sense for them to keep learning and trying their trades on paper-trading platform to avoid getting burnt in real dollars.

In closing, here is an example from today -

Stocks turn because of whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat.... really? The headline below quotes the job numbers that are burried inside the manufacturing report - are you kidding me? I mean the GDP was above expectations, the overall PMI report came in much stronger than expected, weekly jobless claims came in better than expected.... but no, the job numbers built inside the PMI report mattered a whole lot more today than they ever did... Right!!!! How about the situation developing in Europe? Or a fly dying somewhere in Africa? Why are they conveniently ignoring the fact that the markets are overbought and may use any silly excuse to trade down? This is what I mean, i.e., sometimes these so-called headlines are very misleading and has got nothing to do with the reality. I'm sure if a naive person reads this headline below, he/she will think next time I better pay attention to those job numbers in the manufacturing report as it surely seems to be important!!!! Crazyyyyyyyy - you see?

Possible Correction? Sure... Bear/Crash? - Unlikely!

2010-09-30T11:32:00.000-04:00

50 Day EMA crossed above 200-day EMA in Aug 2009. It broke below that in July 2010 and now in September 2010, it is finally above the 200 day EMA. It is clear that crash is out of consideration for now. The market seems to be looking for direction and is going to flip-flop between the support and resistance depending on the news/momentum. It is critical to be aware of the short-term news and the long(er) term implications if you are a buy and hold investor. If you are a trader, then the implications you have to worry about are going to be short term as well. Earnings reporting starts next week. Data came in positive so be aware that there is more fire for bulls than for bears unless the earnings tell another story. Nevertheless, there are many signs that the markets are kinda overbought. So beware - a correction is a real possibility but a market crash or bear market is unlikely for now.

Bullish or Bearish going forward? - My Take

2010-09-08T08:26:00.000-04:00

$NASI and $NYSI just turned up - indicating strong buying pressure as these indicators don't usually flip-flop around. The participation in the recent rally was widespread, which just confirms the move in $NYSI and $NASI. AKAM FFIV and other leaders of the rally have not broken down in the recent move down. Earnings are strong overall. $NYA50R and relevant indicators still show room for a move higher. SENSEX is strong and has not shown any weakness.

The negative points are - prices are still below the 150EMA and 200EMAs and trending down. There are many prominent names in bear territory, RIMM, GOOG etc. Even AAPL is range bound. The fundamentals (PMI, leading indicators etc.) are weakening. China, Brazil are showing weakness and Europe situation is far from over. To top it all off, US housing ARM loans reset in 2011, so that is something to be aware of down the line.

The big thing to keep in mind is - TIMING. Fundamentals are short and long term, TECHNICALS always rule the prices in the meantime.

Keep an eye Trades - DO NKE UNP MCD PFCB

HMOs (AET CI HUM WLP UNH) are quietly rallying - keep an eye for entry or reversal off of resistance!

Picks

2010-06-15T23:48:00.001-04:00

ISRG MDR QCOM LMT GR BA FLR ADS

test

2010-06-09T13:47:00.000-04:00

ADS AMKR AMSC ATHN BYD COCO CSTR EQIX ESV FSLR IPI MED MWW MYL NTRI STEC
ABK ATHN ATPG COCO

ENER FEED GNK LIZ MF PCBC POZN

S&P 500: PE as of today's close = 17.27

2010-06-08T16:51:00.000-04:00

S&P Price/Earnings Ratio At 17.27, Up From 17.08

Last update: 6/8/2010 4:19:01 PM

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Tuesday was 17.27.

On Monday, the ratio ended at 17.08.

The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total adjusted earnings for the most recent year.

In 2009, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $61.50 a share.

Truth about Solar & Wind energy no one talks about...

2010-06-06T00:40:00.000-04:00

The South Texas Project nuclear plant produces 300 horsepower per acre of land used, about the same as natural gas, with oil close behind. Wind power produces 6.4 horsepower per acre, solar photovoltaic 36 hp per acre, biomass 2.1. Corn ethanol requires about 1,150 times as much land as nuclear to produce the same horsepower.

So, Solar & Wind as alternative sources of OIL? Really?

Last straw if you ask, Solar & Wind provide intermittent power supply so there is a need of some sort of a storage device, e.g., battery (Lithium Shortage anyone?), to be able to supply uninterrupted power supply.

Bottomline - Solar & Wind sources are overrated - its kinda cutesy to install a solar panel on your roof as long as (1) you care about getting the bragging rights of how green you've become and importantly (2) government is giving you cash back in form of incentives to go solar. Short Capitalism!!

godsend pullback - getting in

2010-06-04T10:22:00.000-04:00

todays the day when i go long.. until we test recent highs on spx (~1200)

Holding up well - GS GOOG

Keep Watching the strong ones - no damage to the stronger ones yet - NFLX BIDU AAPL DTV ARUN VRSN MELI AKAM SNDK APKT VMW NTAP FFIV DLB CRM CSTR SUMR ORLY AZO AAP CMG DECK ALK UAUA LCC Natgas (SM XEC PXD CXO CWEI CLR CHK NE OIH )

Breaking - CMI JOSB TSCO Retails Chemicals (MMM) TEVA

possible Shorts on retail breakdown - OPEN WFMI SHW TSCO WHR HD DLTR DG URBN PLCE LULU

Second article on Copper within an hour...

2010-06-03T12:00:00.001-04:00

Investors Creating Copper Price Volatility - CRM Associates

Last update: 6/3/2010 11:26:44 AM

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The traditional relationship between copper prices and inventories has been displaced by index and hedge fund investors, and an investment bubble with high-price volatility is being created, the president of Commodity Risk Management Associates said Thursday.

David Waite told the Metal Bulletin copper conference in New York that until very recently, when copper stocks fell, prices rose--and when stocks rose, prices fell. But there has been a change in the way the economic drivers influence copper prices: Stocks rose along with prices in July 2009 until March 2010, while falling stocks since then has translated into falling prices.

"Clearly there is something other than supply-demand involved," he said. According to Waite, investment in commodities by index and hedge funds, along with the sector rotation of these investors between commodities, equities and bonds, have been added to the traditional drivers such as the U.S. dollar and stocks.

Waite, who was involved with the setting up of the Red Kite metals-focused hedge fund in 2005, said increased price volatility will be the result of the speculative interest.

"The investment bubble may have created demand destruction, increased production and an unsustainable overhang of stocks--all financed by investment activity," Waite said. "The result could be massive price volatility, and if long-term investors lose interest in commodities, 'locust years' for metals," he added.

The equivalent of about 1.2 million metric tons of copper is tied up in index fund positions, Waite said, citing data by analysts at Bloomsbury Minerals Economics. "The index funds are holding virtual stocks that are as large as the physical market," he said.

Longer term, Wate said the threat of $4-a-pound copper prices could create a gradual increase in oversupply that, if financed by investment money, will lead to an overhang that the industry can't absorb.

Index funds also have changed since Goldman Sachs pioneered its commodity indexes, Waite said.

Waite noted that from 2004 to 2008, the buy-and-roll strategy by investors in indexes generated its yield from the backwardation, which is when future prices are lower than the cash price.

But since early 2008, the volume of the roll has been "killing the backwardation, despite the market shortage."

"By 2009, the yield of index funds has been decimated by the contango--when future prices are higher than the cash price--which was an outstanding year for the market bulls," he said. "Maybe there will never be a backwardation again."

Investors are now adjusting to the world they've helped to create, Waite told delegates, and are trading down the futures curve instead of just buying the nearby and rolling it. But investors still need to eventually roll positions, with it becoming increasingly more difficult to find buyers and sell positions more profitably, he said.

The future price structure for copper is now "inherently unstable," Waite said, being subject to swings in investment mood rather than supply-demand factors.

"These conditions encourage a permanent contango and the resumption of selective forward hedging by both producers and consumers," Waite said. "Investment buying coincides with physical surpluses and higher tolerated stock levels."

Here's where Crude inventories stand as of today..

2010-06-03T11:57:00.000-04:00

U.S. Oil Inventories:  For week ended May 28:

               Crude    Distillates    Gasoline    Refinery Use

EIA data:        -1.9       +0.5          -2.6          -0.3

Forecast:        +0.2       -0.7          -0.1          +0.1

Does anyone see rising prices on the horizon?... Eventually anyway ;)...

Buh Bye Copper? Buh Bye FCX et al?

2010-06-03T11:42:00.000-04:00

Copper Dominated By Speculators, Price To Collapse- Threlkeld

Last update: 6/3/2010 11:36:47 AM

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The doubling of copper prices through 2009 and into 2010 was "100% speculation" and will eventually collapse, the president of trading company Resolved Inc. said Thursday.

David Threlkeld told the Metal Bulletin copper conference in New York that citing Chinese demand for copper as a reason for the price gains was "absolutely ridiculous."

"It's like Enron accounting," he said. "For Chinese copper consumption to have apparently risen 43%, based on imports of 3.2 million metric tons in 2009, with no reported accumulation of stock, is absolutely ridiculous." Stocks in China are instead sitting in bonded warehouses, meaning they don't show up in official data and help drive prices higher.

But the "rampant speculation" that is behind the price rises will have to come to an end, Threlkeld said.

Threlkeld, who is widely accredited with blowing the whistle on the Sumitomo copper trading scandal in the 1990s, said eventually the copper market will unwind and prices collapse "because everyone who doesn't use it is long of it."

"We've no idea what's done in the over-the-counter market--no idea whether there's $1 trillion in open commodities positions--just like we didn't know in the credit mess," Threlkeld said. "The copper market has huge similarities to the housing market during the subprime crisis--overvalued assets, too much credit. If you're in the industry, the trick is to try and stay alive because the market is incredibly dangerous."

This means that copper no longer acts as a traditional economic indicator as a result, with around 90% of the money in copper invested by speculators and the remainder by the trade

Extremely oversold by all means...

2010-05-20T22:47:00.001-04:00

We enjoyed a nice bounce last time we were at these extreme readings on the technical indicators... Its that time again... All my indicators are showing extreme readings and a bounce is in cards on Friday for sure... If we get a swoosh down at the open, it'd be a gift in heaven as I'd add more there.. I am already long USO, MON and GILD (all AUG Spreads) ... If nothing else, I will cover the short leg of my bull-call spreads and hope for the long part of the spread to continue rising up with markets bouncing higher...

Interested in -

Shorting TLT, SDS

Long - Refiners, Fertilizers, Coals and Nat. Gas,

Watch - ATK NTAP VMW SNDK APKT AGO RDN ATI SNDK AKAM DNDN MMR FFIV CRM CREE CSTR NFLX WHR BGC FLR FLS CIR CRR Airlines (ALK LCC UAUA ALGT) AAP JAS

XRTX QTM STEC

Need follow thru - CF MOS GOOG PAY GPN GS

TIF CAB

6th May 2010 - Whats next...

2010-05-07T08:21:00.000-04:00

Today will go down in history! The faith of retail investors in the sanctity of markets is shaken forever (people have short memory so this shall pass with time). Some interesting things to note though -

1. Baltic dry index actually rose today

2. MOSC on $SPX is at all time lows, -350 reading is extreme and a immediate bounce is imminent

3. $USD is overbought - RSI is above 80 (correction in $USD will lead to bounce in commodities)

4. $USD and $GOLD rallied together - out goes the argument that they are inversely correlated..at least for today..

5. $NAMO, $NYMO are oversold - primed for a bounce, leading to a bounce in Market

6. $NYHL, $NYHGH are at extremes - primed for bounce

Potential problems to above points -

a. CPCE has not reached extreme yet

b. $NASI and $NYSI are still hanging towards the highs (much more room to come down)

c. $BPNYA, $BPSPX are still at or near highs - more come to come down

Overall, earnings are great, fundamentals, although manipulated, are still strong. Right now the market is sympathizing with the world events, especially in Europe and needed a reason to correct. Most importantly, the contrarian view can be that yesterday's spike down has washed away all the weak hands and now the market is free to go higher, much like how it washed away all the shorts in September'08 with a huge spike up, only to come crashing down afterwards in the first week of October'08. In short, the market does exact opposite thing first to cause a shift in sentiment and then acts exactly opposite when the masses are convinced otherwise.

No doubt longer term we should test the March'09 lows but its too early to go there I think. I am counting on a last spike up, maybe test 1300 on $SPX and then form a wide topping pattern before the real bear resumes in Sept-Oct'2010. After all, all those dollars that the fed is dumping in market has to find its way in stock markets on the bid side. Lets see, we are surely in for a treat.

Keep eye on - DB AIB NBG BCS ING BPOP - If the european financials break Feb lows (exception NBG, ING), look out!

Trade: Sell $VIX options - Sell calls or bear call spread!

Earnings - 4th May 2010

2010-05-04T08:53:00.000-04:00

5:50PM EOG Resources misses by $0.05, beats on revs (EOG) 113.56 +1.44 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.46 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.51; revenues rose 18.3% year/year to $1.37 bln vs the $1.22 bln consensus. EOG continues to target total co organic production growth of 13% for 2010.

5:48PM Unitrin beats by $0.14, misses on revs (UTR) 29.93 +0.68 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.77 per share, $0.14 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.63; revenues rose 0.9% year/year to $661.4 mln vs the $718.4 mln consensus.

5:39PM Granite Constr misses by $0.26, misses on revs (GVA) 33.86 +0.25 : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $1.09 per share, $0.26 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.83); revenues fell 36.5% year/year to $220.7 mln vs the $256.8 mln consensus. Co sees FY10 construction revs of $1.05-1.25 bln with gross profit of $11.5-13%. Large Project Construction segment revenue is expected to be $725-825 mln with a gross margins of 10-12%. Construction Materials segment revenue is expected to be $200-250 mln with corresponding gross profit margin between 12-13%.

5:34PM Salix Pharma: XIFAXAN 550 mg (rifaximin) demonstrated acute and sustained relief of non-constipation irritable bowel syndrome symptoms; data from target 1&2 presented at Digestive Disease Week (SLXP) 41.06 +0.91 :

5:29PM Anadarko Petro beats by $0.39, beats on revs (APC) 64.03 +1.87 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.81 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.39 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.42; revenues rose 74.8% year/year to $3.14 bln vs the $2.68 bln consensus.

5:18PM St. Mary Lnd/Expl beats by $0.19, beats on revs (SM) 40.20 -0.04 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.45 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.19 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.26; revenues rose 63.3% year/year to $212.9 mln vs the $199.7 mln consensus.

5:07PM Health Care REIT beats by $0.02, beats on revs; lowers top end of FY10 FFO range (HCN) 45.94 +1.01 : Reports Q1 (Mar) funds from operations of $0.75 per share, $0.02 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.73; revenues rose 10.1% year/year to $152.8 mln vs the $149.2 mln consensus. For FY10, co now sees FFO of $3.10-$3.20 (vs. $3.16 Thomson Reuters consensus), compared to the previous range of $3.10-$3.25.

5:04PM AsiaInfo beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus (ASIA) 27.82 -0.59 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.34 per share, ex-items, $0.05 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.29; revenues rose 24.5% year/year to $63.5 mln vs the $62.7 mln consensus. Co issues mixed guidance for Q2, sees EPS of 0.31-0.34, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.30 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees Q2 revs of $65-69 mln vs. $69.38 mln Thomson Reuters consensus. Gross margin was 61.5% vs 54% in 1Q09 and 57.7% in 4Q09.

5:01PM FMC Corp beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus; guides FY10 EPS in-line (FMC) 64.30 +0.66 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.34 per share, $0.04 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $1.30; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $756.5 mln vs the $738.5 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $1.15-$1.25 vs. $1.27 Thomson Reuters consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $4.45-$4.80 vs. $4.57 Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:51PM Orthovita reports EPS in-line, misses on revs (VITA) 4.08 +0.08 : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.02 per share, in-line with the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.02); revenues rose 11.1% year/year to $24.1 mln vs the $25.2 mln consensus. Gross margin rose to 69% from 68% last yr.

4:46PM Innophos Holdings beats by $0.06, beats on revs (IPHS) 29.39 +0.90 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.47 per share, $0.06 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.41; revenues fell 11.1% year/year to $169 mln vs the $153.4 mln consensus.

4:41PM FelCor Lodging beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY10 FFO above consensus (FCH) 8.25 +0.14 : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.17 per share, $0.04 better thanthe Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.21); revenues fell 0.9% year/year to $226 mln vs the $218.8 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY10, sees funds from operations of (0.47-0.30) vs. ($0.55) Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:35PM Yamana Gold misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line (AUY) 10.79 -0.08 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.10 per share, $0.01 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.11; revenues rose 62.1% year/year to $346.3 mln vs the $349.6 mln consensus. Production is expected to be in the range of 1.030 million GEO to 1.145 million GEO in 2010 consistent with previous guidance.

4:34PM Genco Shipping & Trading beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line (GNK) 23.95 +0.79 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.06 per share, $0.03 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $1.03; revenues fell 2.1% year/year to $94.7 mln vs the $94.9 mln consensus.

4:33PM Concur Tech beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus; guides FY10 EPS below consensus (CNQR) 43.27 +1.36 : Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $0.20 per share, $0.02 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.18; revenues rose 17.4% year/year to $72.8 mln vs the $70.1 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidancefor Q3, sees EPS of $0.17 vs. $0.20 Thomson Reuters consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $0.76 vs. $0.80 Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:33PM Array Biopharma beats by $0.04, beats on revs (ARRY) 3.71 +0.01 : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.30 per share, $0.04 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.34); revenues rose 206.7% year/year to $18.4 mln vs the $14.8 mln consensus.

4:27PM Beazer Homes beats by $0.72, beats on revs; announces 12.5 mln share offering, announces $300 mln senior note offering, announces 3 mln tangible equity units (BZH) 6.88 +0.31 : Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $0.10 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.72 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.62); revenues rose 6.2% year/year to $198.2 mln vs the $191.4 mln consensus. New orders from continuing operations: 1,673 homes, an increase year-over-year of 48.8%. Cancellation rate improved to 17.6% in the second quarter compared to 26.9% in the first quarter of this year and 29.8% in the second quarter of the prior year. Gross profit margin of 13.1% (18.3% without impairments and abandonments), compared to -11.9% (11.1% without impairments and abandonments) in the second quarter of the prior year. Backlog: 1,781 homes with a sales value of $394.5 million compared to 1,278 homes with a sales value of $296.3 million as of March 31, 2009.

4:23PM IRIS Intl reports Q1 results; reiterates FY10 guidance (IRIS) 11.86 +0.43 : Co reports Q1 EPS of $0.06 vs $0.08 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs rose 20% YoY to $26.0 mln vs $23.60 mln Thomson Reuters consensus. Co reiterates FY10 guidance for EPS of $0.40-0.43 vs $0.41 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $100-104 mln vs $101.33 mln Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:23PM Forest Oil misses by $0.05, misses on revs (FST) 29.92 +0.62 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.42 per share, $0.05 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.47; revenues rose 13.9% year/year to $221.9 mln vs the $227.3 mln consensus.

4:23PM Meadowbrook Ins beats by $0.06, misses on revs; raises FY10 operating income guidance (MIG) 7.85 -0.05 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.30 per share, $0.06 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.24; revenues rose 16.4% year/year to $174.2 mln vs the $176.9 mln consensus. Co issues raises guidance for FY10, sees operating income of $0.90-$1.00 per share vs. $0.93 Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:23PM Comstock beats by $0.06, misses on revs (CRK) 33.07 +1.01 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.16 per share, $0.06 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 55.1% year/year to $106.1 mln vs the $112.3 mln consensus.

4:21PM Annaly Mortgage misses by $0.10 (NLY) 17.11 +0.16 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.62 per share, $0.10 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.72.

4:20PM Pitney Bowes beats by $0.01, misses on revs; reaffirms FY10 EPS guidance, revs guidance (PBI) 25.88 +0.48 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.55 per share, $0.01 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.54; revenues fell 2.3% year/year to $1.35 bln vs the $1.38 bln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $2.30-$2.50 vs. $2.40 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees FY10 revs up 0%-3%, which calculates to roughly $5.57-$5.74 bln vs. $5.62 bln Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:20PM NetSuite reports EPS in-line, revs in-line (N) 14.55 +0.46 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.01 per share, in-line with the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.01; revenues rose 5.5% year/year to $43.9 mln vs the $43.7 mln consensus.

4:19PM AllianceBernstein beats by $0.12, beats on revs (AB) 32.19 +0.80 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.62 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.50; revenues rose 21.2% year/year to $725 mln vs the $702.4 mln consensus. Total assets under management as of March 31, 2010 were $501 billion, up $5 billion, or 1%, from December 31, 2009, and up $90 billion, or 22%, compared to March 31, 2009. Base fee revenues increased by $76 million, or 18%, due principally to higher revenue in the Retail and Private Client channels.

4:19PM Nutrisystem beats by $0.03, beats on revs (NTRI) 18.50 -0.83 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.15 per share, $0.03 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.12; revenues fell 1.9% year/year to $158.8 mln vs the $155.5 mln consensus.

4:17PM Sangamo BioSci misses by $0.09, misses on revs (SGMO) 6.45 +0.29 : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.09 per share, $0.09 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.00); revenues rose 106.2% year/year to $6.6 mln vs the $11.2 mln consensus.

4:17PM Universal Technical Institute beats by $0.06, beats on revs (UTI) 24.89 +0.93 : Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $0.25 per share, $0.06 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.19; revenues rose 18.5% year/year to $105.6 mln vs the $102.7 mln consensus. Student start growth of 22% for Q2 2010.

4:15PM Synchronoss Tech beats by $0.02, beats on revs (SNCR) 19.95 -0.48 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.14 per share, $0.02 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.12; revenues rose 18.6% year/year to $35.1 mln vs the $34.6 mln consensus.

4:14PM Airmedia beats by $0.01, misses on revs (AMCN) 6.26 -0.15 : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.10 per ADS, $0.01 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.11); net revenues rose 50.6% year/year to $47.8 mln vs the $49 mln consensus.

4:12PM McKesson misses by $0.03, misses on revs; guides FY11 EPS above consensus (MCK) 64.87 +0.06 : Reports Q4 (Mar) earnings of $1.26 per share, $0.03 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $1.29; revenues rose 1.6% year/year to $26.64 bln vs the $27.41 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY11, sees EPS of $4.72-4.92 vs. $4.70 Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:09PM Principal Fincl beats by $0.11, misses on revs (PFG) 30.26 +1.04 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.79 per share, $0.11 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.68. Book value per share up 212% YoY and 9% QoQ. "We delivered significant improvement in operating earnings, EPS, net income, AUM and book value per share, reflecting improved credit and equity market conditions, and our ongoing discipline around expenses and the investment portfolio."

4:08PM Unica beats by $0.02, beats on revs (UNCA) 9.77 +0.49 : Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $0.08 per share, $0.02 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.06; revenues rose 24.5% year/year to $29 mln vs the $27.2 mln consensus.

4:08PM Sykes Enterprises misses by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; lowers FY10 EPS in-line, revs in-line (SYKE) 22.57 -0.23 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.18 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.23; revenues rose 35.4% year/year to $275.2 mln vs the $268.4 mln consensus. Co issues mixed guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.28-0.32, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.32 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees Q2 revs of $305-310 mln vs. $317.33 mln Thomson Reuters consensus. Co lowers guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $1.33-1.50, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.50 Thomson Reuters consensus, down from $1.38-1.55; sees FY10 revs of $1.23-1.245 bln vs. $1.25 bln Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:07PM Pericom Semi beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (PSEM) 11.99 0.31 : Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $0.12 per share, $0.02better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 2.5% year/year to $36.7 mln vs the $35 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $40-$42 mln vs. $36.00 mln Thomson Reuters consensus. Gross margin for Q4 is expected to be in the 35-36% range, operating expenses in the $11.2-$11.7 mln range, and net income from unconsolidated affiliates PTI and JCP is expected to be approximately $0.6 mln.

4:07PM Cognex beats by $0.07, beats on revs (CGNX) 21.40 +0.49 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.22 per share, $0.07 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.15; revenues rose 39.6% year/year to $58.9 mln vs the $56.6 mln consensus.

4:06PM Qiagen beats by $0.01, beats on revs; reaffirms FY10 EPS in-line, revs in-line (QGEN) 23.07 +0.22 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.20 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.19; revenues rose 19.7% year/year to $264.4 mln vs the $260.4 mln consensus. Co reaffirms in-line guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $0.90-0.96, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.91 Thomson Reuters consensus; reaffirms FY10 revs of $1.12-1.17 bln vs. $1.15 bln Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:06PM Volcano beats by $0.01, beats on revs (VOLC) 24.40 +0.37 : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.02 per share, $0.01 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.03); revenues rose 35.9% year/year to $66.6 mln vs the $63.2 mln consensus.

4:06PM Rackspace reports EPS in-line, revs in-line (RAX) 19.15 +1.20 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.07 per share, in-line with the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.07; revenues rose 23.3% year/year to $178.8 mln vs the $177.7 mln consensus.

4:02PM Andersons beats by $0.16, misses on revs (ANDE) 37.00 +0.86 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.66 per share, $0.16 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.50; revenues rose 3.6% year/year to $722 mln vs the $748 mln consensus.

2:06PM Gaylord Entertain beats by $0.01, beats on revs (GET) 30.05 -3.71 : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.04 per share, $0.01 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.05); revenues rose 2.1% year/year to $216.7 mln vs the $212.6 mln consensus. Co reports Q1 Total RevPAR increased 1.5% y/y. As previously mentioned (see 9:47 comment), the co has withdrawn its FY10 guidance due to flood damage at Gaylord Opryland.

12:22PM iShares DJ Real Estate back vacillating near its early high (IYR) 54.40 +1.44 : The IYR was one of the weaker performers Friday after it setting a new 52-wk high of 55.00 off the open. Today it has continued to display relative strength with it currently back vacillating near its morning high of 54.40. Its 52-wk close high from last Thursday is at 54.66 -- PEI +8.2%, AIV +6.6%, CPT +5.2%, EQR +4.8%, SPG +3.6%, MAC +3.6%, BXP +3.5%, VNO +2.9%, KIM +2.6%, PLD +2.8%, PSA +2.4%, PCL +1.3%.

8:38AM Clorox beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; raises lower end of FY10 EPS guidance, reaffirms FY10 revs guidance; guides FY11 in-line (CLX) 64.70 : Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $1.16 per share, $0.07 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $1.09; revenues rose 1.2% year/year to $1.37 bln vs the $1.37 bln consensus. Co issuesmixed guidance for FY10, raises lower end of FY10 EPS guidance to $4.20-4.25 vs. $4.24 Thomson Reuters consensus vs $4.10-4.25 previously; reaffirms FY10 revs up 1-2%, equating to $5.50-5.56 bln vs. $5.54 bln Thomson Reuters consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY11, sees EPS of $4.50-4.65 vs. $4.63 Thomson Reuters consensus, with revs up 2-4% YoY vs the +3.3% consensus. Gross margin was roughly flat YoY.

8:33AM Mercury General beats by $0.19 (MCY) 44.99 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.85 per share, $0.19 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.66.

8:16AM Drew Industries beats by $0.03, beats on revs (DW) 25.65 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.33 per share, $0.03 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.30; revenues rose 105.6% year/year to $146 mln vs the $128.7 mln consensus.

8:06AM Sysco beats by $0.02, beats on revs (SYY) 31.54 : Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $0.42 per share, $0.02 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.40; revenues rose 2.4% year/year to $8.95 bln vs the $8.75 bln consensus.

8:03AM Administaff beats by $0.16, beats on revs (ASF) 22.14 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.16 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.07); revenues fell 0.9% year/year to $457.7 mln vs the $424.7 mln consensus, as worksite employees paid per month fell 7.8%, offset by a 7.5% increase in rev per worksite employee.

8:03AM Abbott Labs receives FDA approval for CREON to include dosing information for patients with chronic pancreatitis and pancreatectomy (ABT) 51.16 :

8:02AM Valeant Pharmaceuticals beats by $0.05, beats on revs; raises FY10 EPS guidance (VRX) 45.00 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.64 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.59; revenues rose 30.4% year/year to $232 mln vs the $224.7 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $2.65-2.90 vs. $2.59 Thomson Reuters consensus, and up from prior guidance of $2.45-2.70.

8:02AM Arrow Elec beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (ARW) 30.50 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.76 per share, $0.16 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.60; revenues rose 23.9% year/year to $4.24 bln vs the $4.08 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.78-$0.86 vs. $0.66 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees Q2 revs of $4.3-$4.6 bln vs. $4.24 bln Thomson Reuters consensus.

7:06AM Bridgepoint Education beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides FY10 EPS in-line, revs in-line (BPI) 25.71 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.49 per share, $0.15 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.34; revenues rose 85.2% year/year to $156.1 mln vs the $143.8 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $1.86-1.88 vs. $1.87 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees FY10 revs of $688.2-691.2 mln vs. $690.10 mln Thomson Reuters consensus. Total student enrollment is expected to be between 69,000 and 71,000. Total student enrollment at BPI increased 56.5% to 65,788 students in Q1. New student enrollments for 1Q10 were up 44.6% YoY.

6:13AM Integra beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY10 EPS in-line, revs in-line (IART) 45.43 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.63 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.57; revenues rose 7.3% year/year to $172.7 mln vs the $171.1 mln consensus. Co reaffirms in-line guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $2.60-2.75, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $2.68 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees FY10 revs of $715.0-735.0 mln vs. $726.05 mln Thomson Reuters consensus.

6:11AM NICOR misses by $0.01, beats on revs; reaffirms FY10 EPS guidance (GAS)43.51 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.33 per share, $0.01 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $1.34; revenues rose 7.4% year/year to $1.19 bln vs the $0.93 bln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $3.10-3.30, includes $31.7 mln pre-tax net recovery and may not be comparable to $3.05 Thomson Reuters consensus.

1:48AM Berkshire Hathaway reports 1Q10 results (BRK.B) 77.00 : Co reports 1Q10 operating earnings of $2.22 bln vs 1.71 bln in 1Q09. Co reports 1Q10 operating earnings, including investment and derivative gains/losses, of $3.63 bln vs $(1.53) bln in 1Q09.

Flat-out wrong... again!!!!

2010-04-01T12:06:00.001-04:00

So, it seems that the tax-selling theory doesn't hold true... Until it does... I am still in the camp that the market is way too overbought and am expecting a sector rotation soon, i.e., money out of XLY, XRT and move into new sectors... refiners and energy plays could be the next place where money may move throughout the summer... Today's action could be a wash-out move unless $SPX closes above 1181... Else, this could be a move to shake out all the weak hands... I have a hedged poftfolio right now.. i.e., short XRT, HD and long CHK... MON looks interesting but am gonna sit on the sidelines until MON releases its earnings next week...

Pankaj

Other considerations -

Breakouts - NFLX CREE LVS WYNN WFR ERTS FWLT CAT CMI JOYG BUCY

Long Side -KLAC ABT NTAP GPRE JRCC CNX AMSC NTRI FSYS MED SUN TSO CVX ESLR FLR SOlar stocks ( TSL SOLF CSIQ YGE) ARD FLIR GMXR SD IRE IO GTI FTK

Short Side - PEP DRI TEVA FDX CMG CMI BUCY CEPH CLF WLT BIDU GYMB (Careful with WLT, BUCY et al. - very high beta)

23rd March and beyond

2010-03-16T02:15:00.000-04:00

I am sticking my neck out and calling out that the major selling wave will probably hit us after 23rd March but before the end of the month! I am already positioned short...if the market sells off tomorrow on Fed announcement, I will start booking profits and wait for the market to bounce even higher before going total in on the short side.. again most like after 23rd March... Why so specific? I have an indicator that I am looking at, and if the market does indeed sell off, then I have a lot of thinking to do about that indicator... Lets see...

Beware of the tax-related selling!!!

2010-03-08T13:46:00.000-05:00

So its been a while I posted...the reason if you had to ask, I was really on the side lines initially and then I went to India for a month-long vacation. I am slowly catching up with the news and market conditions now. Anyway, I thought I should jot down my thoughts on my observation, i.e., the market bottomed last year around March 9th and guess when all the big boys got in.. right around that time +/- 10 days ... So, if they are up big and they are completing one year since their purchase, what do you think their most logical step will be now? ... You guessed it right... SELL SELL SELL.. the market is up since Feb 8th and this move will suck in a lot of suckers, only to get trapped in the selling frenzy to come later this month... Heck, next week I think... lets see ...

Take it as the market gods giveth ...

2009-12-19T09:34:00.000-05:00

Lately all my big short positions yielded 5% return, i.e., short VZ and long SDS... I was lucky/smart to take whatever I could get and not wait for the precipitous drop that many, including me, are waiting since god knows how long. Surprisingly one of my money maker trade was on the long side, i.e., NITE... was lucky to nail the exact bottom on this one and am already out with good profits...planning to re-enter again on Monday on minor pullbacks...

So what happened to the dollar - market inverse correlation?... The prices just proved again that the masses are rarely correct in their prognoses. Lately the masses are expecting a correction early in next year and I am sure thats not how its going to play out.. the difficulty now is to predict how else can and will it play out... Until then, keep watching the prices.... am on the sidelines...

So it begins.. slowly but surely...

2009-12-08T23:26:00.000-05:00

Dollar finally managed to close up two days in a row above its 50DMA... the commodities are the best place on the short side ... keep watching stocks like GOOG break down hard soon. Meantime, I am positioned short, not too heavily short yet but soon it will be time to go in heavy...

cheers..

Phew!The correction that never comes!

2009-12-07T08:24:00.000-05:00

The market is driving the bulls and mostly the bears (like me) nutsssssssss!! The key is not to be emotional and the best solution is either for the market to show a clear bearish breakdown or break to the upside (unlikely). Meantime, stay on the sidelines if you are getting anxious. Else, get ready to loose capital.

Pankaj

Dubai it is... I was wondering if it was gonna be Greece!

2009-11-26T09:47:00.001-05:00

It is a calm morning. I woke up a little late than usual since the "New Moon" saga lasted until 1AM last night with my wife. As usual, I grabbed my cereal bowl and made my way straight to my office to read the financial news and take a gauge on global markets. The first thing I read is all about Dubai being on thin ice financially. Wow! Until 2 days ago, there was nothing about Dubai in media and today that city-state is in dire straights all o a sudden? WoW! I figured we needed some catalyst, just something to roll over and I was hoping that it was either going to be Jamie replacing Timmy OR Greece defaulting on its debt.. But no, it turned out to be Dubai... I will take it anyway for a healthy, I mean 20% correction towards the 200EMAs...

I lost on some trades and got stopped out of my shorts yesterday because the market just showed crazy behavior on thin volume... not surprising, but still unsual... The dollar tanked, EUR and YEN popped higher like nobody's business and Gold is on steroids everyday lately, nothing new there.

Now, going into Friday and next week, I am happy that the uncertainty is KILLED! Bulltards are dead!!! Bears will rule the markets for a while( at least 2-3 weeks) now!!!

A fresh hunt for possible short candidates starts right now...

Cheers......

AMZN - Cleared all walls ... So far...!

2009-11-15T07:21:00.000-05:00

AMZN has stayed above all the resistance walls for the most part since I mentioned how it was hitting resistance every which way... It is trading roughly in $30 channels and the next resistance, top of channel, is around $150. Could it go that high? Who knows, the momentum may just surprise us all.. I am not comfortable buying at these levels, but some folks make good money buying high and selling higher!

Good luck!

BDI very strong lately.. Solar, DryBulk shippers getting bids?

2009-11-13T22:43:00.001-05:00

BDI has gone straight up since I last mentioned it on 1st Nov.... and the shippers have not moved at all... The rise in BDI is really making the situation very confusing, i.e., the commodities, e.g., iron ore, coal etc. are finding home from other countries to china.. so this definitely is a good sign from recovery point of view... Solar stocks, especially Chinese solar stocks seem to have a good bid today across the board... Refiners, e.g., WNR, TSO, VLO are also worth keeping an eye on... Not sure if they are ready to move up yet but the sentiment in these sectors are at all-time low and so is the short interest and hence they may move way before the fundamentals catch up, if they ever will...I am definitely not in the recovery camp but there is no harm in trading over others' optimism in short term and ride the train until it stops :)...

The $DXY, on the other hand, is getting trashed. Everyone is expecting a bounce and so am I. This makes me worry whether the market will trick all of us, like it always does, and take $DXY to the woodsheds for one last capitualtion move lower. This surely will cause a spike in the equities. This scenario is best and we will wait and see how this unfolds. Meantime, if the $DXY closes above $76.3, hallelujah!

Since the dollar is trashed lately, the commodity equities have already spiked and who knows how much of recovery is already baked into the prices. The market is surely showing signs of distribution but its not as overbought as it once was... so it may just grind higher earlier next week... mind you, it can come crashing down anytime though.. I am going to wait for that one long red candle that will confirm the next big downward move, which will lead us to test 200EMAs on Indexes for once and all.. Note that $RUT is showing weakness, the emerging markets are split as well...China & Brazil are weak and India is rallying with no obvious signs of weakness... Waiting for a confirmation before I am going to go all in... Meantime, I own 50 put contracts of WMT...

Cheers...

Out of STEC, ENER calls, entered NDAQ calls

2009-11-03T12:32:00.001-05:00

Since the market gods granted my wish by going higher yesterday and today (at least the ones I owned, i.e., ENER, STEC), I am going to cash in my positions and enter into a better Risk-reward longs... I am long NDAQ call spread, long SRS call spread (hedge), long UNG call spread... I think we may continue rally even after the FOMC tommorow and may be the Friday's report will bring everything crashing down.. No one can say what exactly will be the path downwards but I feel that we eventually will resume to the downside and any pop to test 1100 on $SPX will be a gift from heavens...Chances are that we are going to see $SPX test 1100 sooner than I thought we would.... I am going to be positioned long in the meantime and will wait for FOMC announcement tomorrow before jumping full in, mostly on the long side (hopefully)... If we tank tomorrow (less likely), I will cash out and wait for the dust to clear and look for signals then to enter either short or long depending on what the $DXY does after the FOMC announcement.

PS: I think STEC could pop higher on earnings today but am not going to gamble on it.. I got the pop that I was looking for and am now happy with whatever I could get in profits.. :)

EDIT: 5PM: Lucky I was out of STEC calls... the POS stock is trading $7 down after hours on not-so-great guidance(soft revenue)! Its Massoud playing AAPL thinking he would sandbag earnings by guiding low but he forgot that AAPL ACTUALLY beats the low-guided earnings heftily and consistently... Phew!

Intermediate bounce likely.. Look at BDI...

2009-11-01T11:19:00.001-05:00

We are sitting at much oversold levels and possibly just should (wishful thinking) bounce if not just grind sideways until the FOMC decision comes out later this week... that could be the next big catalyst for the dollar to shoot higher and the market to tank! Is Bernanke ready for a big makeover? (change from Helicopter Ben to a stingy Scholar?)

Meantime, BDI is rising steadily... its in an uptrend with prices nicely bouncing off of 5EMA consistently... Until that changes, BDI will continue its upward trend.. It would be interesting to see how it performs this week... Who knows, this may a sign that the market is not ready for the BIG correction that everyone is waiting for...

I am positioned long for the coming week...long Dec 27 STEC and Jan 17 ENER calls and no puts at all... Makes me wary but am taking the risk based on the oversold readings that I see in the Index charts and am well aware that the oversold market can always stay oversold for long (er) time and may continue its slide but am comfortable to be long these calls from risk-reward POV...

Cheers...

NKE - Insider unloading heavily - Should you?

2009-10-25T22:26:00.000-04:00

Since Oct 14, one of the NIKE directors has sold most of his holdings in a rapid manner... Is this relentless selling going to be a harbinger of something ominous to come at NIKE? Or does the Director just needs to raise some cash ( some 100 millions or more) to feed his starved and shivering chuwawa?

Will wait and see... meantime, I am long 65-60 Put Spread!

Note of caution: Insiders rarely get it right... Case in point, STEC 10% owner sold all of his shares in Aug. at 24-29 and then the shares hit $40! Ouch! Also, I mentioned Jeff Bezos selling his shares, tiny amount that is, in May in the 80s and now AMZN is trading at $119. Nevertheless, I am short NKE because I think short term the move upward is overdone!

AMZN - Hitting wall every which way!

2009-10-25T11:39:00.000-04:00

AMZN is trading in $26 channels and is at the top of the latest $26 channel. Besides it is also at the top range of the bearish rising wedge resistance line and finally the forward PE is ~ 50. Could it still rise above this massive resistance wall? - just to trap some bulls like it trapped some bears earlier this year when the bears thought that AMZN is going to hell, even to single digits, only to trap them and shoot sky high since then!

This is a tricky monster stock - there is not much short interest now to justify the run in the prices lately. Its clear that this is sheer buying frenzy that was started by the big boys, which eventually will suck in some retailers only when it reaches extreme (125 anyone?) just to wash out all shorts and suck in new longs only to make them weep later?

AMZN - am gonna watch you like a hawk!

EDIT: Monday 10:40AM - If the AMZN train continues to close 2-3 days positively, it may just go towards the higher end of the new $26 challenl starting from 119, i.e., it may test the $145 area before any weakness... I, for one, think that so much upward movement is unlikely given the overbought levels its sitting at right now... you never know for sure what this crazy stock will do though.. so, until then I am long Nov 120-115 put spread, got in at 124 this morning.. and I am ready to close it as soon as I see AMZN trading over today's high from this morning..

Earnings - 22nd Oct 2009

2009-10-22T22:43:00.000-04:00

6:34PM Bucyrus beats by $0.35, beats on revs (BUCY) 42.53 -0.05 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.21 per share, $0.35 better than the First Call consensus of $0.86; revenues rose 4.6% year/year to $675.8 mln vs the $623.4 mln consensus.

4:19PM Synaptics beats by $0.06, beats on revs (SYNA) 23.66 +0.93 : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.48 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.42; revenues rose 3.7% year/year to $119.6 mln vs the $116.4 mln consensus. Q3 gross margin of 40.4% vs. 40.6% street expectation. "We saw a sharp year-over-year increase in our mobile touchscreen business, where we are working with the top handset makers to broaden penetration of capacitive touchscreen phones around the world. Synaptics won a number of important new designs during the quarter, and design activity remains robust,"

4:18PM Western Digital beats by $0.31, beats on revs (WDC) 37.11 +1.25 : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $1.25 per share, $0.31 better than the First Call consensus of $0.94; revenues rose 4.3% year/year to $2.2 bln vs the $2.06 bln consensus. WDC reports Q1 hard drive shipments of 44.6 mln compared to 40 mln in Q4. "In the September quarter, we leveraged our organization-wide agility to respond to unexpectedly robust demand and again generated strong financial results. As we enter the December quarter, demand remains strong and our product line-up, availability and cost profile position us to benefit from continuing growth opportunities."

4:18PM Chipotle Mexican Grill beats by $0.20, reports revs in-line (CMG) 87.77 +4.29 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.08 per share, $0.20 better than the First Call consensus of $0.88; revenues rose 13.8% year/year to $387.6 mln vs the $388.2 mln consensus. Full year comparable restaurant increases in the low single digits. For FY10, co sees flat comparable restaurant sales.

4:15PM Align Tech beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (ALGN) 15.38 +0.44 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.13 per share, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 5.5% year/year to $79.3 mln vs the $73.8 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.08-$0.10 vs. $0.06 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $77.5-$81 mln vs. $76.58 mln consensus.

4:12PM Sunpower beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS in-line, revs above consensus (SPWRA) 33.30 +0.94 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.42 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.40; revenues rose 56.4% year/year to $466 mln vs the $420.1 mln consensus. SPWRA reports gross margin 20.7% compared to 22.6% in Q2. Co issues mixed guidance for FY09, sees EPS of 1.15-1.25 vs. $1.21 consensus; tightens FY09 revs to $1.425-1.50 bln from $1.35-1.70 bln vs. $1.43 bln consensus.

4:08PM Deckers Outdoor beats by $0.34, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (DECK) 91.74 +2.25 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.59 per share, $0.34 better than the First Call consensus of $2.25; revenues rose 15.8% year/year to $228.4 mln vs the $227.7 mln consensus. DECK raises guidance, sees Q4 EPS growth of 5%, up from prior guidance of -4% and vs -3.5% consensus; co sees revs growth of +4%, up from prior guidance to decrease slightly YoY and vs +0.3% consensus. Q4 (Dec) guidance equates to EPS of $4.25 vs. $3.90 consensus; sees Q4 (Dec) revs of $315.60 mln vs. $303.85 mln consensus. Deckers Outdoor guidance also assumes a gross profit margin of approximately 47.0%, compared to previous expectations of 47.5%. "In addition to exceeding expectations, our third quarter results highlight our efforts to further diversify our product lines, expand our share of the market, and control expenses. Our UGG brand sales continue to be led by our core boot category, with the performance of several new styles driving the strong start to the fall selling season. Our focus on broadening the depth of our collections has enabled us to increase shelf space and attract new consumers to the brand. At the same time, we had a positive response to our more technical line of closed toe, light hikers, which will help establish our Teva brand as a true year-round brand and provide important momentum for spring 2010. Our Simple brand is also experiencing solid sell-through as ecoSNEAKS continue to perform well at major accounts such as Nordstrom and Journeys. We are very pleased with our ability to successfully execute our business plan in what continues to be an uncertain economic environment. We remain focused on effectively managing our expenses and inventory levels and are moving forward excited about the many long-term domestic and international growth opportunities that lie ahead for the Company." UGG brand net sales for the third quarter increased 19.1% to $212.8 million compared to $178.7 million for the same period last year. The sales gain was primarily attributable to an increase in domestic and international shipments of fall product versus the same period a year ago. During the third quarter, the Company repurchased approximately 300,000 shares of its common stock under its stock repurchase program for a total of approximately $20.0 million."

4:06PM Amazon.com beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (AMZN) 93.45 +0.03 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.45 per share, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.33; revenues rose 27.8% year/year to $5.45 bln vs the $5.03 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $8.12-9.12 vs. $8.11 bln consensus. AMZN sees Q4 operating income of $300-425 mln vs $372 mln consensus. Co said, "Kindle has become the #1 bestselling item by both unit sales and dollars - not just in our electronics store but across all product categories on Amazon.com. It's also the most wished for and the most gifted. We are grateful for and energized by this customer response... Earlier this week we began shipping the latest generation Kindle. Its 3G wireless works in the U.S. and 100 countries, and we've just lowered its price to $259."

7:36AM ITT Educational beats by $0.03, beats on revs (ESI) 110.43 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.00 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $1.97; revenues rose 33.5% year/year to $339.6 mln vs the $335.3 mln consensus.

7:35AM Celgene beats by $0.02, beats on revs (CELG) 54.58 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.56 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.54; revenues rose 16.8% year/year to $692 mln vs the $671.2 mln consensus. Co reports Q3 sales of Revlimid $450 mln vs. $429 mln consensus; Vidaza $103 mln vs. $108 mln consensus, Thalomid $110 mln vs. $102 mln consensus.

7:13AM Laboratory Corp beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides FY09 EPS above consensus (LH) 68.85 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.22 per share, $0.07 better thanthe First Call consensus of $1.15; revenues rose 4.4% year/year to $1.19 bln vs the $1.18 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $4.84-4.89 vs. $4.81 consensus; the Company expects revenue growth of approximately 4%, consensus 4.57%.

6:46AM J. Crew raises Q3 guidance above consensus (JCG) 37.74 : Co issues upside guidance for Q3 (Oct), sees EPS of $0.54-0.59 vs. $0.36 First Call consensus, prior guidance $0.30-0.33. The Company's third quarter fiscal 2009 expectations reflect a high single digit increase in comparable store sales; a low single digit increase in Direct sales; and a gross profit margin increase of approximately 500 basis points as compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2008 which was 41.6% of revenues. This compares to the Company's previous guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2009 of a mid-single digit decline in comparable store sales; a low to mid-single-digit decline in Direct sales; and a 100 basis point increase in gross profit margin.

6:36AM Dow Chemical beats by $0.14, beats on revs (DOW) 25.50 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.24 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the First Call consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 6.4% year/year to $12.05 bln vs the $11.85 bln consensus. Co said, "The economic outlook for the rest of 2009 appears to be stabilizing withstrong growth in Asia Pacific, especially China, and other emerging geographies. The global economy is now on firmer footing, and, in our view, the United States economy is beginning a slow and tenuous recovery, with unemployment continuing to be a drag on consumer spending. Therefore, our 2009/2010 operating plans do not count on material improvements in market conditions, and we remain tightly focused on those factors we can control, such as costs, capital and cash flow management. Dow has already begun to benefit from the smooth integration of Rohm and Haas and the decisive actions we took to accelerate our restructuring efforts and cost synergies. We have also made significant improvements to our balance sheet, strengthening our financial structure and providing more flexibility in how we execute any further divestitures, which will be made on a timely and strategic basis."

6:33AM Alexion Pharma beats by $0.08, beats on revs; raises non-GAAP EPS guidance and Soliris net product sales guidance (ALXN) 44.13 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.29 per share, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $0.21; revenues rose 34.1% year/year to $102.6 mln vs the $98.3 mln consensus. Full-year 2009 financial guidance for non-GAAP diluted earnings per share is being revised upward, from the previously announced range of $1.01 to $1.06, to a higher range of $1.15 to $1.18, not comaparable to the GAAP consensus of $0.76. Alexion is revising upward its previously announced guidance for worldwide Soliris net product sales, from a previous range of $368 to $378 million, now to a higher range of $383 to $385 million for the full-year 2009.

6:10AM Check Point Sftwr beats by $0.03, beats on revs (CHKP) 30.10 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.52 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.49; revenues rose 17.0% year/year to $233.6 mln vs the $230.7 mln consensus.

6:09AM Travelers beats by $0.30; raises FY09 EPS guidance (TRV) 48.02 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.61 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.30 better than the First Call consensus of $1.31. Co raises guidance for FY09, sees EPS of 5.30-5.50 vs. $5.28 consensus, up from previous guidance of $4.80-5.05. Book value for the quarter jumped 22% QoQ to $51.24 per share. The current quarter underwriting gain reflects a GAAP combined ratio, excluding net favorable prior year reserve development and catastrophe losses, of 92.5 percent, as compared to 91.8 percent in the prior year quarter. This increase of 0.7 points primarily resulted from reduced underwriting margins related to pricing and loss cost trends, higher non-catastrophe weather-related losses within Personal Insurance as well as the impact of the company's recently announced direct to consumer initiative. "These results were driven by underwriting profitability in each of our business segments and increased net investment income, as our non-fixed income portfolio yield improved to a positive level. "We were once again successful in achieving positive renewal rate changes across all of our business segments, although net written premiums were down modestly, largely attributable to declining economic activity in recent... With improved stability in the capital markets we deployed excess liquidity that we accumulated over the past several quarters. We repurchased $1 billion of common shares in the quarter in contrast to our past practice of reduced share repurchases during the catastrophe season. Given our strong earnings performance and cash position and more stable capital markets, we increased our regular quarterly dividend by 10 percent to $0.33 per share. In addition our Board of Directors has approved an additional $6.0 billion of common share repurchases."

6:08AM Potash beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus (POT)102.48 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.82 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.81; revenues fell 64.1% year/year to $1.1 bln vs the $1.04 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.65-0.85 vs. $1.18 consensus. N. American potash producer shipments improved from the previous quarter, but third-quarter volumes were still more than 50% below the same quarter in 2008 and year-to-date totals were nearly 70% lower than in the first nine months of last year. In July, India signed new contracts with global potash producers, which co believed would inspire buyer confidence in other markets. This failed to materialize, as potash buyers appeared to respond instead to their perception of market conditions and risks, including healthy producer inventories, lack of engagement by Chinese buyers and a late US harvest. Moreover, large inventory writedowns in nitrogen and phosphate taken by dealers over the past year limited the appetite for additional inventory risk. As a result, dealers and farmers continued to buy potash only on an as-needed basis, putting pressure on spot market pricing.In phosphate, US producer solid fertilizer domestic sales volumes moved closer to historical levels, while offshore volumes rose slightly as India continued to import significant quantities and shipments to Brazil increased in advance of its key planting season. In nitrogen, lower domestic natural gas costs allowed North American producers to be more competitive, contributing to a 24% decline in ammonia imports to the US compared to last year's third quarter. Lower winter wheat plantings and continued deferral by fertilizer buyers reduced urea demand and prices in the quarter. Co anticipates global potash demand in 2010 will approximate 50 million tonnes. Co now expects 2009 potash gross margin to fall within the range of $0.7-$0.9 billion and total shipments to be 3.0-3.2 million tonnes.With lower forecast potash volumes, POT now anticipates 2009 annual effective tax rate will be in the range of 10-12%, with the fourth quarter at approx 26-27%. Provincial mining and other taxes are forecast within a range of 3-4% of total potash gross margin in the year as a result of lower volumes and pricing.

3:10AM AU Optronics beats by $0.01, beats on revs (AUO) 9.82 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.26 per ADR, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.25; revenues rose 8.4% year/year to $3.5 bln vs the $3.21 bln consensus. Co reports operating margin of 6.8%.

Earnings - 21st Oct 2009

2009-10-21T21:23:00.000-04:00

4:21PM Edwards Lifesci beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line; raises FY09 EPS guidance, sees revs above consensus (EW) 71.10 -0.53 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.71 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.70; revenues rose 7.3% year/year to $325.7 mln vs the $313.8 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.82-0.86, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.83 consensus. Co raises FY09 EPS guidance, issues upside FY09 rev guidance, sees EPS of $3.02-3.06, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.03 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $1.305-1.325 bln vs. $1.29 bln consensus. "In addition, Critical Care sales growth stepped up during the quarter. This quarter's results were also highlighted by strong international transcatheter valve sales growth and the recent approval of 2010 reimbursement in Germany. We also continued to make steady progress on U.S. approval and next generation systems. Underlying growth increased substantially from a first half rate of 2.0 percent, driven by strong sales from our FloTrac and pressure monitoring products."

4:15PM Amgen beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; guides FY09 EPS above consensus (AMGN) 59.40 +1.26 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.49 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.22 better than the First Call consensus of $1.27; revenues fell 1.6% year/year to $3.81 bln vs the $3.79 bln consensus. Co reported drug revs as follows: Enbrel $924 mln vs. $906 mln consensus; Neulasta $871 mln vs. $890 mln consensus; Aranesp $685 mln vs. $697 mln consensus; Epogen $663 mln vs. $645 mln consensus; Neupogen $339 mln vs. $327 mln. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $4.90-5.05 vs. $4.88 consensus; sees FY09 revs at the upper end of the $14.4-14.8 bln range vs. $14.7 bln consensus. The company still expects 2009 capital expenditures to be less than $600 mln. The company also announced that it has received a Complete Response Letter issued by the FDA for the BLA for Prolia in the treatment and prevention of bone loss due to hormone ablation therapy (HALT) in breast and prostate cancer patients. The Complete Response Letter on the Prolia HALT applications requested additional information regarding the safety of Prolia in patients with breast cancer receiving aromatase inhibitor therapy and patients with prostate cancer receiving androgen deprivation therapy. Specifically, the FDA has requested results from additional adequate and well-controlled clinical trials demonstrating that Prolia has no detrimental effects on either time-to-disease progression or overall survival.

4:09PM VMware beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (VMW) 44.93 +0.29 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.24 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.20; revenues rose 3.7% year/year to $489.8 mln vs the $474 mln consensus. VMW reports Q3 operating margin of 22.2% vs. 21.6% consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $540-560 vs. $523.00 mln consensus. Sees Q1 revs down sequentially (Q1 consensus is for $513 mln). "Our solid third quarter results were driven by strength in the US Federal sector, increased transaction volumes and particularly robust growth in our maintenance renewals... While the economic environment remains challenging, we have improved visibility into our business and believe that the next two quarters will follow seasonal patterns. We are planning fourth quarter revenues to be between $540 and $560 million, with the first quarter of 2010 down sequentially."

4:08PM Lam Research beats by $0.11, beats on revs (LRCX) 35.85 -1.15 : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.03 per share, $0.11 better thanthe First Call consensus of ($0.08); revenues rose 46.3% year/year to $318.5 mln vs the $287.5 mln consensus. Ongoing gross margin for the September 2009 quarter was $131.3 million or 41.2%, compared to ongoing gross margin of $67.8 million, or 31.1%, for the June 2009 quarter -- may not be comparable to 38.1% First Call consensus.

4:07PM Equinix beats by $0.17, beats on revs; guides FY09 revs above consensus (EQIX) 97.75 -0.44 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.47 per share, $0.17 better than the First Call consensus of $0.30; revenues rose 31.2% year/year to $227.6 mln vs the $224.1 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees FY09 revs of $875-880 mln vs. $871.98 mln consensus. Co says "Equinix delivered strong results in the third quarter, driven by solid demand and sound execution across all areas of the business... As we have continued our disciplined expansion strategy throughout the challenging macroeconomic climate of the past several quarters, we are well positioned to continue building upon our global market leadership position, and we continue to see a strong opportunity in front of us as the economy begins to recover." Capital expenditures in the third quarter were $88.7 mln, of which $14.7 mln was attributed to ongoing capital expenditures and $74.0 mln was attributed to expansion capital expenditures. Total year cash gross margins are expected to range between approximately 63% and 64%. Cash selling, general and administrative expenses are expected to be approx $160.0 mln. Adjusted EBITDA for the year is expected to be between $395.0 and $400.0 mln. Capital expenditures for 2009 are expected to be in the range of $390.0 to $400.0 mln, comprised of approx $60.0 mln of ongoing capital expenditures and $330.0 to $340.0 mln of expansion capital expenditures.

8:07AM Northrop Grumman beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus (NOC) 49.79 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.29 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the First Call consensus of $1.18; revenues rose 4.1% year/year to $8.73 bln vs the $8.58 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $5.00-5.15 vs. $4.85 consensus. Third quarter 2009 earnings included a net tax benefit of $75 million, or $0.23 per share, primarily for final settlement of the Internal Revenue Service's (IRS) examination of the company's 2001, 2002 and 2003 tax returns. In the third quarter of 2008 the company recognized net tax benefits totaling $21 million, or $0.06 per share.

8:05AM Freeport-McMoRan beats by $0.73, misses on revs; reinstates $0.60 per share annual dividend (FCX) 78.63 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.07 per share, $0.73 better than the First Call consensus of $1.34; revenues fell 10.2% year/year to $4.14 bln vs the $4.24 bln consensus. Consolidated sales from mines for third-quarter 2009 totaled 1.0 bln pounds of copper, 706 thousand ounces of gold and 16 mln pounds of molybdenum, compared with 1.0 bln pounds of copper, 307 thousand ounces of gold and 19 mln pounds of molybdenum for third-quarter 2008. Consolidated sales from mines for the year 2009 are expected to approximate 4.0 bln pounds of copper, 2.5 mln ounces of gold and 56 mln pounds of molybdenum, including 915 mln pounds of copper, 425 thousand ounces of gold and 14 mln pounds of molybdenumfor fourth-quarter 2009. Consolidated unit net cash costs (net of by-product credits and excluding Tenke Fungurume) averaged $0.50 per pound for third-quarter 2009, compared with $1.29 per pound for third-quarter 2008. Assuming average prices of $1,000 per ounce for gold and $10 per pound for molybdenum for the fourth quarter of 2009, consolidated unit net cash costs are estimated to average approximately $0.60 per pound for the year 2009. "Our third-quarter results reflect strong operating performance, high volumes from our Grasberg mine and improved commodity prices for our products - copper, gold and molybdenum. We are benefiting from improvements in our cost structure, particularly at our North America mines. We are positioned to pursue additional investments and growth opportunities within our existing asset base, when economies in the developed countries recover. Our strong performance in 2009 has enabled our Board to reinstate a cash dividend for our shareholders. We will continue to focus our cash flows on strengthening our balance sheet, investing in our future growth and providing cash returns to shareholders."

8:03AM Piper Jaffray beats by $0.07, beats on revs (PJC) 54.88 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.47 per share, $0.07 better than the First Call consensus of $0.40; revenues rose 62.8% year/year to $119.7 mln vs the $108.7 mln consensus.

7:34AM FLIR Systems beats by $0.03, beats on revs; anticipates FY09 EPS to be slightly above its recent outlook (FLIR) 28.95 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.38 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.35; revenues rose 3.2% year/year to $285.6 mln vs the $281.1 mln consensus. Backlog of firm orders for delivery within the next twelve months was approx $608 mln at September 30, 2009, an increase of $10 mln during the quarter. Backlog in the Government System's division was $487 mln, up $20 mln during the quarter due to strong U.S. demand. Backlog in the Commercial Vision Systems division was $93 mln, down $15 mln during the quarter due to a significant order cancellation resulting from a delay in project timing. Backlog in the Thermography division was $28 mln, up $5 mln during the quarter. Outlook: Based on the financial results for the quarter, and the outlook for the remainder of the year, co expects FY09 EPS to be slightly above the most recent outlook. Co also announces acquisition of OmniTech Partners for $42 mln in cash (immaterial to FLIR EPS in FY09 and FY10).

Earnings - 20th Oct 2009

2009-10-20T23:49:00.000-04:00

6:07PM Tupperware beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY10 EPS above consensus (TUP) 44.01 -0.26 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.54 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.42; revenues rose 0.2% year/year to $514 mln vs the $486.2 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $2.84-2.89 vs. $2.73 consensus; sees FY09 revs growth of 5-6%, which equates ~$2.27-2.29 bln vs. $2.06 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $3.33-3.43, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.20 consensus; co sees FY10 revs growth of 6-8% in local currency, and with a 6% benefit from foreign exchange is an increase of 12-14% reported.

4:34PM Cymer beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (CYMI) 38.85 -0.12 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.36 per share, $0.19 better than the First Call consensus of $0.17; revenues fell 16.5% year/year to $92.3 mln vs the $82.2 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs to be comparable to Q3 revs, which equates to ~92.3 mln vs. $90.62 mln consensus. Co said, "In Q3, we responded to increased demand that resulted in Q3revenue increasing almost 50%, as compared to the prior quarter. In Q4, we anticipate maintaining this increased level of demand for light sources and Installed Base Products."

4:33PM Walter Energy beats by $0.18, beats on revs (WLT) 65.87 -0.05 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.45 per share, $0.18 better than the First Call consensus of $0.27; revenues fell 9.9% year/year to $278.3 mln vs the $222.8 mln consensus.Co says "Our third quarter performance illustrates the strong demand for our high quality coking coal... We continue to see improving market conditions for our product and we are on track to achieve sales of approximately 3.5 mln tons in the second half. This performance supports our plan to produce and sell approximately 8 mln tons in 2010, with the startup of the Mine No. 7 East longwall in early January 2010." The Company expects to ship 126,000 tons of hard coking coal at 2008-2009 carryover pricing of approximately $315 per metric ton in the fourth quarter 2009. Coking coal production is expected to be between 1.4 and 1.5 mln tons in the fourth quarter, with production costs expected to average between $65 and $70 per ton. "We expect continued improvement in market conditions for the remainder of 2009, Moving into 2010, we are seeing increasing demand for premium mid- and low-vol coals from our key product destinations, as well as Asia, with port constraints in Australia continuing to make high-quality coking coals a scarce resource." Walter Coke is expecting improved sales and a return to profitability in the fourth quarter 2009, driven primarily by increased orders from the domestic steel industry. Capital expenditures were $14.9 mln in the third quarter, totaling $67.3 mln for the year. The Company expects full-year capital expenditures of approximately $85 mln. sales of approximately 3.5 mln tons in the second half. This performance supports our plan to produce and sell approximately 8 mln tons in 2010, with the startup of
the Mine No. 7 East longwall in early January 2010."

4:10PM Gilead Sciences beats by $0.11, beats on revs (GILD) 46.12 -0.69 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.78 per share, $0.11 better than the First Call consensus of $0.67; revenues rose 31.4% year/year to $1.8 bln vs the $1.75 bln consensus. 3Q Drug Sales and First Call Consensus: Truvada $620.6 mln vs. $625 mln consensus; $605.3 mln vs. $604 mln First Call Consensus; Viread $169.7 mln vs. $158 mln First Call Consensus; Amibsome $77.0 mln vs. $72 mln Consensus

4:09PM Seagate Tech beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus (STX) 15.55 +0.00 : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.58 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the First Call consensus of $0.47; revenues fell 12.2% year/year to $2.66 bln vs the $2.62 bln consensus. Seagate Tech reports gross margin 24.5% vs 23.3% consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $2.75-2.85 bln vs. $2.75 bln consensus. For the December quarter, the company is planning for the overall industry demand for disk drives to be 153-160 million units. Gross margin as a percent of revenue to be near the high end of the company's targeted range of 22-26% (consensus calls for 23.2%). During the first fiscal quarter, STX reduced short-term borrowings and long-term debt by approximately $465 mln primarily with the maturity of its $300 mln floating rate senior notes and by paying down its revolving credit facility by $150 mln. "At a time when economic conditions remained challenging we are very pleased with the company's financial performance, delivering strong revenues, margins and cash generation... The company has returned to its operating model well ahead of our expectations of six months ago and now expects to sustain gross margin of 22-26%. Although mission critical enterprise demand in particular has yet to recover to historical levels, we benefitted from our time-to-market product delivery to customers integrating our notebook, desktop and enterprise drives." While visibility has improved throughout the calendar year, the ongoing uncertainty in global economic conditions makes it difficult to predict product demand and other related matters, which makes it more likely that Seagate's actual results could differ materially from current expectations.

4:08PM Cree beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (CREE) 41.16 +0.05 : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.30 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $0.22; revenues rose 20.5% year/year to $169.1 mln vs the $164.5 mln consensus. Cree reports gross margin 43.6% vs 40% consensus and co guidance. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.28-0.30, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.23 consensus; sees Q2 revs of $180-190 mln vs. $173.18 mln consensus. Targeted non-GAAP earnings exclude expenses related to the amortization of acquired intangibles of $0.02 per diluted share, and stock-based compensation expense of $0.06 per diluted share. "We are benefitting from continued LED lighting adoption and high factory utilization and are well positioned for solid growth in Q2. As a result of the recent equity offering, we have the balance sheet to invest in the growth of our business as we look to continue to lead the LED lighting revolution."

4:08PM SanDisk beats by $0.49, beats on revs (SNDK) 21.47 +0.01 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.75 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.49 better than the First Call consensus of $0.26; revenues rose 13.8% year/year to $935.2 mln vs the $787.9 mln consensus. SanDisk reports gross margin 46.6% vs 31.3% consensus. Co says, "We are encouraged by improved industry fundamentals and our increasingly diversified global markets, which bode well for further growth in Q4 and in 2010."

8:12AM Peabody Energy beats by $0.26, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus (BTU) 43.37 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.49 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.26 better than the First Call consensus of $0.23; revenues rose 24.6% year/year to $1.67 bln vs the $1.42 bln consensus. Co issues raises/issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.60-1.80, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.48 consensus; co also raises FY09 EBITDA guidance to $1.2-1.3 bln vs the $1.14 bln consensus. Given the high rate of deliveries to satisfy U.S. customer commitments, the co is targeting '09 sales of approximately 190 mln tons in the United States and 21-23 mln tons in Australia. Total co sales are expected to be 235-245 mln tons, including Trading and Brokerage contributions. For 2010, growing demand in the Pacific is driving higher Australia sales projections of 24 to 27 mln tons, or 15% above 2009's targets, with minimal capital required. In the United States, BTU is targeting '10 volumes of 185 to 195 mln tons, in line with '09's expectations and 5-15 mln tons lower than 2008. Peabody's 2010 PRB volumes are expected to decline up to another 5 mln tons from 2009's estimated 138 mln tons, and approximately 20-25 mln tons below peak operating levels in late 2008. Third quarter 2009 sales volumes totaled 63.5 mln tons, compared with 65.6 mln tons in the prior year period. U.S. sales reflect planned Powder River Basin (PRB) reductions. Australia sales of 6.5 mln tons were 30% above the second quarter due to higher seaborne thermal volumes and record metallurgical coal shipments. Australian metallurgical coal exports were 2.7 mln tons, nearly triple the pace of 1H09. U.S. revenues per ton increased 11% over the third quarter of last year due to higher realized prices in both the Midwestern and Western regions. Peabody's third quarter realized revs for Australia averaged $82 per ton, including $125 per ton for seaborne metallurgical coal and $72 per ton for seaborne thermal coal. Compared with the second quarter of 2009, Australian realized prices increased 33% due to a larger mix of seaborne metallurgical coal. 3Q09's Australian revs per ton were below year-ago levels due to lower annual pricing for seaborne coal contracts that began April 1.

8:04AM Precision Castparts misses by $0.09, misses on revs (PCP) 104.72 : Reports Q2 (Sep) earnings of $1.54 per share, $0.09 worse than the First Call consensus of $1.63; revenues fell 27.6% year/year to $1.3 bln vs the $1.39 bln consensus. "From a top-line perspective, overall sales declines seem to be bottoming out in the second quarter. Aerospace destocking is slowing, and our schedules show that we are closing the gap between orders and aircraft build rates. A gradual ramp begins in the third quarter, although some of our customers appear to be holding off orders as they approach their fiscal year ends. By the fourth quarter, we start to see schedules firming up and aligning more closely with current aircraft build rates beginning in March and carrying through the first quarter of fiscal 2011 and beyond. In addition, oil and gas and chemical processing orders are getting some traction and showing gradual sales upside in the third and fourth fiscal quarters. As sales increase, we have every expectation of driving those volumes across our improved cost structure and of aggressively leveraging every opportunity for upside performance."

8:02AM Cirrus Logic beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs above consensus (CRUS) 5.86 : Reports Q2 (Sep) earnings of $0.11 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 4.5% year/year to $55.7 mln vs the $55.7 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $58-62 mln vs. $53.96 mln consensus. Gross margin is expected to be between 52 percent and 54 percent; and combined R&D and SG&A expenses are expected to range between $23 million and $25 million, which include approximately $2 million in share-based compensation and amortization of acquisition-related intangibles expenses. Gross margin for the quarter was 52 percent, down from 56 percent in the quarter a year ago and flat compared to 52 percent reported for the previous quarter.

7:38AM Caterpillar beats by $0.58, misses on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus; guides FY10 revs in-line (CAT) 57.85 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.64 per share, $0.58 better than the First Call consensus of $0.06, revenues fell 44% YoY to $7.3 bln vs $7.47 bln First Call consensus. Co issues guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.85-2.05 vs. $1.49 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $32-33 bln vs. $33.07 bln consensus. Co sees FY10 revs up 10-25% from midpoint of FY09 guidance; equates to ~$35.75-40.625 bln vs $33.14 bln First Call consensus, in part driven by the end of dealer inventory reductions which significantly impacted sales in 2009. "We are pleased with this quarter's profit given the severe economic environment and with our sales well below end-user demand as dealers continue to aggressively draw down inventories... During the quarter, our primary focus continued to be on trough management and operational execution. We lowered production as dealers continued to cut inventories, we reduced costs, maintained positive price realization, lowered inventory, delivered positive operating cash flow and improved our financial position... We believe the third quarter marked the low point for Caterpillar sales and revenues in what has been the toughest recession since the 1930s. We are seeing encouraging signs that indicate a recovery may be underway... However, the world economy is still facing significant challenges. There is uncertainty about the timing and strength of recovery... While 2010 will still be a difficult year, we expect improvement in our top line from the lows of 2009, and it's critical that we manage on the way up as well as we did in the face of declining volume. As a result, we've already started planning for an upturn. When it comes, it can come quickly, and we, our dealers and our suppliers will be prepared"

7:37AM BlackRock beats by $0.17, beats on revs (BLK) 230.43 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.10 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.17 better than the First Call consensus of $1.93; revenues fell 13.2% year/year to $1.14 bln vs the $1.13 bln consensus. Third quarter new business results reflected increasing demand for higher return investments, driving net inflows of $14.5 bln in equities, balanced, fixed income and alternative investments, and net outflows of $26.4 bln in cash management. "Improving investor sentiment was the most important factor in third quarter results. Clients are putting money back to work in the markets, driving inflows in equities and bonds, and outflows in money market funds industry-wide. This shift drove the rally in global stocks and tighter credit spreads, as well as a favorable revenue mix in net new business. Assets under management increased $61.6 bln to $1.435 trln at September 30, 2009. Net new business in long-dated investment products totaled $14.5 bln. In contrast, net outflows in cash management were $26.4 bln and distributions from advisory accounts totaled $4.6 bln. BlackRock Solutions business remained strong, with seven net new assignments added during the quarter. Year-over-year, AUM has increased $176.2 bln or 14%, including net new business of $133.4 bln, and BlackRock Solutions has added 56 net new assignments. Our pipeline of wins funded or to be funded totaled $42.5 bln as of October 15, 2009. "The BGI transaction remains on target for a December 1, 2009 closing."

7:03AM Pfizer beats by $0.03, beats on revs; raises FY09 guidance above consensus (PFE) 17.98 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.51 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.48; revenues fell 2.9% year/year to $11.62 bln vs the $11.41 bln consensus. Co raises guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $2.00-2.05 vs. $1.98 consensus, prior guidance $1.90-2.00; sees FY09 revs of $49-50 bln vs. $48.43 bln consensus, prior guidance $45-46 bln. Co said, "During the first nine months of 2009, we have continued to deliver on our 2009 financial commitments and our longer-term cost-reduction target. Completion of both the Wyeth acquisition and associated integration plans is a testament to the hard work and dedication of talented colleagues throughout the organization. Looking ahead, we anticipate that our broad portfolio of products and increased investment in high-growth opportunities will better position us to generate consistent earnings growth and continue to deliver on our commitments."

6:18AM Lexmark beats by $0.20, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus (LXK) 22.57 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.65 per share which excludes $0.52 per share for restructuring-related activities which includes $0.34 per share for additional restructuring charges the co is announcing today, $0.20 better than the First Call consensus of $0.45; revenues fell 15.3% year/year to $958 mln vs the $901.3 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.50-$0.60 vs. $0.47 consensus. The co also announces additional restructuring initiatives designed to streamline its world-wide organization to improve operating efficiencies and effectiveness. This October 2009 plan includes reductions primarily in the areas of manufacturing and supply chain, service delivery overhead, marketing and sales support, corporate overhead, and development. The company expects these actions to be principally complete by the end of the first quarter of 2011. These October 2009 actions are expected to impact about 825 positions worldwide and will result in total pre-tax charges of approximately $120 mln with approximately $33 mln incurred in the third quarter of 2009. Lexmark expects these October 2009 actions will generate savings of approximately $70 mln in 2010 and ongoing savings of $110 mln beginning in 2011 with approximately 60% impacting operating expense and 40%impacting cost of goods sold.

1:38AM Allegiant Travel beats by $0.05, beats on revs (ALGT) 39.63 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.68 per share, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of $0.63; revenues rose 13.9% year/year to $133.1 mln vs the $130.5 mln consensus. "Cost per passenger excluding fuel declined to $50.31 in the third quarter from $53.33 in the prior year, which understates the improvement since system load factor was 3.8% lower than last year. Please note these figures include bonus accrual, which has increased significantly in 2009 since it is tied to profitability and therefore further disguises underlying cost improvement. Excluding bonus accrual, cost per passenger excluding fuel declined to $4." Co reports load factor in 3Q of 89.9% 93.8% in 3Q08.

Victim of Cognitive Dissonance....

2009-10-12T23:55:00.000-04:00

http://hungryforoptions.blogspot.com/2009/03/ken-lewis-is-back-with-more-good-news.html

I was looking at my previous posts from last six months (check the one above for example) and boy was I disappointed to notice how I was hypnotized all along with my negativity.... the term psychologists use for this behavior is cognitive dissonance. I surely was thinking in only one direction and that was my reality back then. I even feared (correctly so) that March 9th would go down in history as the day that marked the bottom for this crazy financial crisis... Looking back, it surely did just that... I definitely learnt something valuable this year that I thought I had learnt before and is often heard everywhere, i.e., trend is your friend. All I tried to do all year long is to pick a top, while missing out on the biggest rallies that I have seen lately in many specific equities.

I still feel one thing that I've felt all along, i.e., the market is overbought and I just don't want to be the last one holding the bag buying stocks right at the top. This fear has kept me from buying and stay bought all this last 400+ points on $SPX. I guess Buffet is somewhat correct in saying, "buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy". I would modify this and say "Buy early when others are still negative, and sell early when other are still positive". I guess we are almost at a point where the negativity is still there and so I think we may just go one more leg higher before coming crashing down. Unless, the earnings this week act as a catalyst that just does the job of making everyone realize that the worst may still yet to come.

I am still going to wait it out and am prepared to sell as soon as I see that first big spike in $VIX for 2 days in a row!

Two possibilities as always... I am leaning towards Bearish!

2009-10-10T09:26:00.000-04:00

My Saturday commentary seems to be right on the money from last two Saturdays... Fortunately I put my money where my mouth is, so I am a tad bit happy this past 2 weeks... ;)..

Now, as of yesterday the current situation has become very interesting... I mean -

1. the $DXY is all coiled up with positive divergences all over (ready to shoot high any moment, which will be a catalyst for markets to dive lower)

2. The markets are still way overbought in terms of # of stocks above 50EMA is still in the 70s - 80s.

3. The market leaders like AAPL, GS etc. are faltering (fundamentals of AAPL and GS may be sound but they are just way too overbought) and leadership is changing to commodities once again as stocks like FCX and coal plays are spiking higher on weaker dollar

In a nutshell, market just needs an excuse now (any excuse) to start this sell-off.. Nevertheless, the contrarian in me thinks that the market may just (just for heck of washing the weak bears out of their short positions) spike higher to $1120 -$1150 on $SPX, which is the 150-200EMA on weekly chart. Thus, I am playing it cautious right now as I feel that this spike is likely, quite likely if I may add since $VIX is also sitting right at 23 level and its unlikely that this level will hold as it has touched it sooo many times already. It may just go below 23, touch 18, before it spikes... it all depends on the earnings and dollar next week..

Bottomline - I am not holding anything big... just wait and watch the $VIX and $DXY...

PS: Note that $VIX still has not closed below 23! It would be need to close below 2 days in a row for the $SPX to see the target of 1120. If $VIX bounces off of the 23 support and keeps doing that for some time, I would assume that this would be the intermediate top and 980 on $SPX is definitely in the cards then. Lets see how it unfolds these coming weeks.

Intermediate(3-4 days) bottom established?

2009-10-03T10:18:00.000-04:00

Seems like we just may go higher for the next 3-4 trading days given the open high, low close on $VIX that seems to work for me... I closed all my shorts again and I am net long again... If we open lower on Monday, I will start buying for the short term rally that is due over the next week... We may resume our downtrend once AA opens it mouth and disappoints everyone... this negative report from Alcoa will set the bearish tone for the earnings season and I would look for stocks that led the rally to break down hard, e.g., AAPL, GS etc.

This is it..next week will be quite telling

2009-09-27T01:14:00.000-04:00

If we rally hard on Monday, we may just be lucky to see another top formation (I doubt this will happen though). If we sell-off again on Monday, look out below to 980 on $SPX .... I personally have sold all my puts and am ready with my firepower to load them back up depending on how the market behaves on Monday or the whole next week.... the next big catalyst is the employment report on Friday... If we do rally into that report, the hell will break loose on Friday regardless of what the report says... It will be interesting to see what the market does early next week... Although I don't think that the market has any juice left to rally, I hope it does rally into the Employment report on Friday... Lets see...

Here we go....

2009-09-23T10:43:00.001-04:00

It seems like today is the day we've been waiting for... Dollar will strengthen ... bearish Oil report will cause that or vice versa... and we will need to see the stocks that raised their estimates higher this morning, e.g., XLNX, GIS etc. close in red... Besides, $VIX didn't close below 23, so we have a clear stop-loss if the thesis doesnt play out....

Cheers..

A gap up and close in red would be ideal...

2009-09-20T23:32:00.000-04:00

Waiting for something like that to happen... is it this coming week that we form a intermediate top? Or is it the next one? I think it is this week for sure. The scenario may not play out just like what I have described in the title of the post but who knows it may be the Fed meeting that may cause a close in red and that may still be OK... lets see how this week unfolds....

Hold on to your horses bears..... we are going to get a chance to get fat again before the winter hibernation!!!

Analyst's (Goldman) call on Refiners!

2009-09-19T09:45:00.000-04:00

Guess when the Goldman guy made his call to sell SUN and other refiners? Yep, right at the bottom!! These stupid analysts look at the charts and then come out and make their calls - nothing more - Epitome of incompetence on the street!!

'V' for VICIOUS!

2009-09-16T23:47:00.000-04:00

ASH has bounced back viciously, much more than the market overall! We are at interesting crossroads now. Looking back, China bottomed first, $NDX (and even $RUT) led the US rally while $SPX lagged... Now the leaders are loosing steam and the $SPX is catching up somewhat... Overall, the market is at an inflection point and patience is key! I feel the pain for missing much of this rally lately. Nevertheless, this is strictly business and so I encourage myself to stay focused, just like a big cat would and only pounce at the right time to make a kill for sure and not waste energy trying and failing over and over! Lastly, watching the $USD closely - it may continue lower and the market may keep chugging along. I am going to wait for it to turn however long it may take - one week or 1 month.

Intraday reversal would be a gift from heavens today!!!

2009-09-11T08:48:00.001-04:00

Yea, I saw that... I saw that the market closed at a new high for this year yesterday... I still can not get long comfortably since the market is way too overbought and is staying that way for so long. I am long calls of some equities that lagged the rally and not so for any obvious reasons - e.g., CEPH, VRSN etc. These calls are a hedge against my puts on COST, and my short position in SDS, JPM!

My hands are itching to go and build a huge short position --- all I need to see is one sign of weakness and I hope to see it soon!!!! I keep saying that...and the market proves me wrong... this is quite humbling experience... I'm glad that this learnings are not costing me heftily because of my hedged portfolio but am hoping to go all-in in one direction, i.e., to the downside. Wait and see.

Pankaj

Interesting developments today...

2009-09-09T23:59:00.001-04:00

Some conflicting things happened today -

GS - Broke higher from its recent highs

AAPL - didn't do much on Steve Jobs showing up - closed in red on good tape on high vol.

UNG - closed negative

IYT - Closed at a new high

$VIX - still didnt make a new low (shows positive divergence)

Metals - Weak on good tape

and on and on.... some show breakouts and some show weak technicals... Bull or Bear? I can't make my mind now.. Am still steering towards bearish since the uber-bear blogs are also turning bullish (atleast they think that we are headed to see 1070 or 1100 on SP500). Besides, the market is still way tooo overbought for soo long that any pullback is not only likely all of sudden but it will also be healthy! The dollar seems to be stabilizing, $vix is behaving as if we are going to see a spike up...besides the Volume overall is still low... So, fireworks are coming for sure and I am tired of waiting... :). Today's close is crucial and will tell us a bit more about if we are indeed heading for 1100 on S&P500 or if we break below to test the 200EMA, i.e., 957!

Pankaj

EDIT: 10:20AM - Thursday: The way the market is acting, it seems that it may just go higher... I mean I don't see what can break this market down now... the consumer sentiment tomorrow? Well, we all know that consumer sentiment will be just fine and this market goes higher regardless of whether the news is negative or positive... so its all good.. Just buy stocks, will ya? ... Yayyy!!!!!

Short until $VIX closes below 23!

2009-09-05T09:15:00.000-04:00

I still believe that selling pressure will mount once the HF crowd returns from their vacations next week and take profits on their swollen positions (swolen on low vol. by retail crowd) ... So, unless we see a close on $VIX under 23, I would be short....

Flatline today on thin vol... super boring..

2009-09-04T15:57:00.000-04:00

I am not going long and am not selling my puts either... today was a non-event day and I don't care where the market closes today...

Wow.. Jobs report n NO firweworks? What will be the next catalyst?

2009-09-04T10:40:00.000-04:00

The Unemployment report came and gone - no big deal! So, what is going to be the big deal? This market is absolutely boring the heck out of me and my puts are loosing the premiums as time goes by - not a good situation to be in. If we close positive today and close strong, I am going long and keep my puts as is as an insurance. Phew!!

One hope I have is the 3Pm onward action.. keeping fingers crossed....

Something nice about CNBC trader shows...

2009-09-01T16:25:00.001-04:00

My earlier posts talked about how every Tom, Dick and Harry on the street was anticipating a correction last week. But then did you watch CNBC? All of their shows turned bullish late last week, e.g., in addition to the Cramer snippet in my earlier post, the options action traders saw massive call buying in COP and put buying in $VIX (thanks for Scott Nations for confirming that).

Now you see, the blabbering that goes on CNBC can really get you SCREWED... Ignore those SOBs on CNBC... they are losers and they'll soon make you one if you hear their opinion and act on it - not that I didn't knew this earlier, but just reinforcing my beliefs! Bloomberg is relatively better, only relatively though!!

I made some good profits today by sticking to my gut and analysis! Sold half of my puts, only to reload on any bounce that we may get tomorrow or day after tomorrow.

This is what I was waiting for...Cramer says....

2009-08-27T23:16:00.000-04:00

“We know the pullbacks in this market are shallow,” Cramer said. “So I think it’s wrong to worry about a tidal wave sell-off capsizing this thing.” --- Source CNBC

No need to worry, the pullbacks are shallow, buy the dips and there should be no worry about a sell-off. This is exactly what I was waiting for. Now I feel more comfortable being short. :).

Lets see how it goes.

super bearishness in blogosphere is downright scary!

2009-08-25T21:18:00.000-04:00

The widespread anticipation of a massive correction within Blogosphere, even on shows like FastMoney and such, is downright scary!!! Although I think that the market is way overbought and needs to correct, I wonder if the market is going to do the exact opposite, as it always does, and go even higher and touch 1200!!! I will stay short until the market ($SPX) closes above 1040.

Edit 11:30PM: I read my own post (seen above) after a couple of hours of posting it and I said to myself, 'Yep, the market will surely convince every last bear to become bullish before it goes down finally" and I wonder if my post reflects a (tiny?) bull in me, which in turn should be indicating that the top is near- how near? -Dont ask, Dont tell - no one really knows!! So am keeping short until the condition mentioned in my post is met...

We must close in red today for bear case to hold....

2009-08-24T12:13:00.001-04:00

Sugar high!

2009-08-21T21:50:00.001-04:00

Did I mention sugar high? Yep, saccharine high! You know what I am thinking, the blogosphere is soooo negative still that it is just better to have bought the dips lately... after all the money managers are worried about performance anxiety and they have to show that their funds are tracking markets, so they are buying and buying big! God knows when this NEW house-of-cards will collapse, but when it does, it will be rock and roll all over again! Meantime, I still think that the market is overbought and it can stay overbought for quite some time.... Yay!! I am just thrilled that the recession is over and now we can go about doing our business!

Today or sometime next week will mark as a top!

2009-08-21T14:08:00.000-04:00

Some insider selling is witnessed in AMZN, MHS, STEC and looking at the tired nature of good-earning stocks and junk flying to moon, its obvious that this is not going to last long at all ... this party should be over in the next week or so.. Time to add to the existing short (painful positions) and keep adding atleast until we see a close above 1050 on $SPX, which is my stop loss point. A reversal today and a close near the lows or red would be very encouraging!

Less Clunkers on the road means bad news for AZO, AAP, ORLY?

2009-08-14T00:13:00.000-04:00

For now, just ponder on the title of the post.

Earnings - 11th Aug 2009

2009-08-12T00:15:00.000-04:00

7:54AM Tongxin International reports Q2 EPS of $0.39; revs increased 50.2% YoY to $34.8 mln (no ests) (TXIC) 8.20 : Significant quarter-over-quarter sales increases were directly attributed to increased sales to existing customers, new contracts the continued recovery of the manufacturing sector after factory quotas and shutdowns were ordered by Beijing in April, May and June 2008 in preparation for the Summer Olympics. Net profit margins were 12.7% for the quarter which is a 200-basis point improvement in net margins from 10.6% reported the second quarter of 2008... Based upon continued strong growth in the Chinese domestic market and anticipated improvement in exports to Vietnam, co is revising earnings guidance and providing revenue guidance for 2009. Revenues are estimated to be $120.0 million for the calendar year, 2009. Net income is forecasted to increase to $14.7 million, an 18.5% increase from previously issued guidance. Earnings per basic share outstanding are forecasted to be $1.30 compared to previous guidance of $1.10 based on 11.3 million shares. As of June 30, 2009 the company had 12.9 million diluted shares outstanding (based upon the Treasury Method).

7:06AM Bridgepoint Education beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (BPI) 19.34 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.34 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the First Call consensus of $0.23; revenues rose 122.2% year/year to $110.9 mln vs the $99.2 mln consensus. Total student enrollment at Bridgepoint Education's academic institutions, Ashford University and University of the Rockies, increased 101.3% to 45,504 students at June 30, 2009, compared with 22,607 students at the end of the second quarter of 2008. As of June 30, 2009, 99% of the total student population accessed their classes exclusively online. Combined new student enrollments for the second quarter of 2009 at both of Bridgepoint Education's academic institutions were approximately 14,600, an increase of 80.2%, compared with combined new student enrollments of approximately 8,100 for the second quarter of 2008. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.00-1.02 vs. $0.87 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $425-430 mln vs. $406.53 mln consensus. Total student enrollment is expected to be between 48,000 and 49,000 at December 31, 2009.

12:34AM GeoEye beats by $0.07; misses on revenue; issues upside guidance for FY09 (GEOY) 24.95 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.46 per share, $0.07 better than the First Call Consensus of $0.39; revenues increased 112% year/year to $72.7 mln vs $73.85 mln consensus. Revenues related to contracts with the U.S. Government, the co's largest customer, were $47.5 mln for the second quarter of 2009, representing 65.3% of total revenues for the period. Co issues upside guidance for FY09; sees revenue of $270.0-280.0 mln vs $269.46 mln consensus. Co sees FY09 EPS of $1.10-1.37 vs $1.10 consensus.

12:27AM Federal Agricultural Mortgage reports 2Q09 results (AGM) 9.09 : Reports Q2 (Jun) net income of $25.4 mln, or $2.49 per diluted common share, for the three months ended June 30, 2009 (no estimates available). Q209 results compare to second quarter 2008 net income of $21.4 mln, or $2.13 per diluted common share, and $33.5 mln, or $3.31 per diluted common share, for 1Q09. Second quarter 2009 results were driven by gains in the values of financial derivatives and recoveries of previously-recorded losses related to loans for ethanol plants. Farmer Mac's core earnings were $4.7 mln for second quarter 2009, compared to $4.8 mln for 1Q09 and $7.1 mln for 2Q08.

Earnings - 10th Aug 2009

2009-08-10T23:09:00.000-04:00

6:02PM KongZhong beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus (KONG) 13.16 +0.24 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.06; revenues rose 37.4% year/year to $32.3 mln vs the $31.4 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $34-35 mln vs. $32.09 mln consensus.

5:10PM Mindray Medical beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY09 revs below consensus (MR) 29.87 +0.16 : Reports Q2 (Jun) GAAP earnings of $0.29 per share, including amortization and termination payments, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.27; revenues rose 9.9% year/year to $160.1 mln vs the $151.9 mln consensus. Co issues guidance for FY09, sees FY09 EPS growth of 10% YoY; sees FY09 revs growth at least 10%, which equates to revs of at least $602.3 mln vs. $617.63 mln consensus

4:12PM Providence Service Corp beats by $0.01, beats on revs (PRSC) 11.59 +0.67 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.40 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.39; revenues rose 10.9% year/year to $191.8 mln vs the $186.9 mln consensus. While visibility in 2009 continues to improve, pending the completion of state budgets, the Company will refrain from providing additional guidance for 2009.

4:11PM McDermott beats by $0.03, misses on revs (MDR) 21.32 -0.20 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.40 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.37; revenues fell 12.7% year/year to $1.56 bln vs the $1.59 bln consensus. At June 30, 2009, the co's consolidated backlog was $9.5 bln.

4:07PM Fluor beats by $0.02, misses on revs; guides FY09 EPS in-line (FLR) 57.49 -0.72 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.93 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.91; revenues fell 8.3% year/year to $5.29 bln vs the $5.81 bln consensus. New project awards for the second quarter were substantial at $6.8 billion, compared with $6.4 billion in new awards a year ago. Current quarter awards included a large mining project and a $1.3 billion oil sands project. Consolidated backlog rose to $30.9 billion, up from $29.1 billion last quarter, but down 6 percent from a year ago primarily due to cancellations and scope reductions of Oil & Gas projects during the first quarter. Co issues in-line guidancefor FY09, sees EPS of $3.80-4.10 vs. $3.81 consensus.

4:05PM Qiagen beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (QGEN) 18.98 +0.05 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.24 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.21; revenues rose 10.2% year/year to $240.2 mln vs the $232 mln consensus. Co issues guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $0.90-0.94, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.88 consensus, prior guidance $0.88-0.94; sees FY09 revs of $920-970 mln vs. $959.04 mln consensus.

8:08AM Priceline.com beats by $0.27, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS and revs above consensus (PCLN) 131.31 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $2.02 per share, $0.27 better than the First Call consensus of $1.75; revenues rose 17.5% year/year to $603.7 mln vs the $575.1 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $2.70-2.85 vs. $2.52 consensus; sees Q3 revs up 19-23% YoY, or roughly $669-691 mln vs. $613.49 mln consensus. Year-over-year increase in total gross travel bookings of ~20% - 26%; Year-over-year increase in international gross travel bookings of ~21% - 29% (an increase of approximately 30% - 39% on a local currency basis); Year-over-year increase in domestic gross travel bookings of approximately 20%. "Priceline.com's 2nd quarter performance reflects the impact of improving demand, but also shows the impact of lower year over year unit prices. Priceline.com continued to gain market share globally in the 2nd quarter as worldwide hotel room night reservations grew 44%, reflecting solid performance in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Airline ticket sales grew 14% despite fee reductions introduced by our competitors during this period to compete with our low price positioning, and growth in rental car days was steady at 15%. Internationally, our hotel business experienced gross travel bookings growth of 14%, or approximately 32% on a local currency basis."

7:31AM Hormel Foods raises FY09 guidance, sees EPS of $2.36-2.42 vs $2.29 First Call consensus (HRL) 36.12 : Co raises FY09 EPS guidance to $2.36-2.42 from $2.15-2.25, vs $2.29 First Call consensus. "A strong performance from our Refrigerated Foods segment, an improved performance by our Jennie-O Turkey Store segment and continued solid results from our Grocery Products segment, allowed us to deliver a stronger than expected third quarter. We also benefited from better investment performance in our rabbi trust."

6:40AM Carrizo Oil & Gas beats by $0.12, beats on revs (CRZO) 20.52 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.29; adjusted revs fell 12.9% year/year to $48.8 mln vs the $43.8 mln consensus. Production volumes during the three months ended June 30, 2009 were 7.89 Bcfe, 29 percent higher compared to 6.10 Bcfe during the second quarter of 2008. The increase was largely due to new production contributions from Barnett Shale development. Carrizo's average oil sales price decreased 50 percent to $56.95 per barrel compared to $113.90 per barrel for the second quarter of 2008 and the average natural gas sales price decreased 30 percent to $6.08 per Mcf compared to $8.68 per Mcf for the second quarter of 2008. The above prices include the impact of cash-settled hedges.

6:37AM Zhongpin beats by $0.03, misses on revs; reaffirms FY09 EPS guidance, revs guidance (HOGS) 12.21 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.36 per share, $0.03 better thanthe First Call consensus of $0.33; revenues rose 17.7% year/year to $161.8 mln vs the $170.7 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.50-1.63 vs. $1.54 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $780-810 mln vs. $769.16 mln consensus. Co said, "As a result of the education consumers have received about the recent A(H1N1) virus, they increasingly are focusing on food safety, which highlights the importance of high-quality products and stringent testing procedures. Highest quality and stringent testing are the foundation of Zhongpin's modernized, safe, and hygienic processing facilities. With China's live hog prices and pork prices beginning to recover during the latter part of the second quarter, we expect that the upward trend is likely to continue in the cooler second half of 2009, when pork consumption typically increases. Further supporting that outlook is China's economy, which is expected to grow at higher rates than in the first half of 2009."

6:32AM Cypress Biosci beats by $0.02, beats on revs (CYPB) 9.06 : Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.23 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.25); revenues rose 480.0% year/year to $5.8 mln vs the $2.3 mln consensus.

6:32AM China Fire & Sec Grp beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus, reaffirms FY09 revs guidance (CFSG) 16.53 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.29 per share, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.23; revenues rose 35.9% year/year to $22.7 mln vs the $22.3 mln consensus. Co issues raises EPS guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.00-1.05 vs. $0.98 consensus, prior guidance $0.93-1.00; sees FY09 revs of $88-95 mln vs. $91.92 mln consensus.

6:09AM GTX beats by $0.05, beats on revs (GTXI) 9.42 : Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.31 per share, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.36); revenues rose 26.9% year/year to $3.8 mln vs the $3.4 mln consensus.

6:06AM Chindex beats by $0.18, beats on revs (CHDX) 13.15 : Reports Q1 (Jun) earnings of $0.25 per share, excluding the impact of the change in fair value of outstanding warrants,$0.18 better than the First Call consensus of $0.07; revenues rose 41.3% year/year to $45.3 mln vs the $43.1 mln consensus. Revenue from the Medical Products division increased 86% to $23.3 mln from $12.5 mln in the prior year period, and revenue from the Healthcare Services division increased 13% to $22.0 mln from $19.6 mln in the first quarter of fiscal year 2009. Revenue performance reflects increased medical products sales, including revenue from the sale of two daVinci units, and year over year growth in inpatient and outpatient revenue in the Healthcare Services division.

5:06AM General Steel reports EPS in-line, beats on revs (GSI) 5.74 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.04 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the First Call consensus of $0.04; revenues rose 5.7% year/year to $409 mln vs the $371.6 mln consensus. Gross margin was 5.5%, compared to 4.0% in the previous quarter and 5.9% in the second quarter of 2008. The increase in total revenues was predominantly due to increased shipment volume at the co's Longmen JV, which in the first half of 2009 increased 51.3% year-over-year, and Baotou Steel Pipe JV, which in the first half of 2009 increased 41.7% year-over-year. The co noted that these increases in shipment volume helped to offset lower selling prices and declines at its Daqiuzhuang Metal subsidiary. The increase in total revenues was also attributable to the co's Maoming acquisition, which took place on June 25, 2008.

4:14AM Perfect World beats by $0.08, beats on revs (PWRD) 37.33 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.72 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $0.64; revenues rose 56.5% year/year to $76.3 mln vs the $73.2 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for 3Q09; sees revenue of RMB547.0-563.0 mln vs RMB520.26 mln. This reflects expected growth of the newly launched "Battle of the Immortals" and other existing games.

Earnings - 6th Aug 2009

2009-08-06T22:39:00.000-04:00

8:43AM Alexandria RE beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY09 FFO above consensus (ARE) 46.18 : Reports Q2 (Jun) funds from operations of $1.59 per share, $0.16 better than the First Call consensus of $1.43; revenues rose 11.6% year/year to $121.4 mln vs the $118.5 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees FFO of $5.60 vs. $5.45 consensus.

8:35AM Diodes beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus (DIOD) 19.36 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.06 per share, excluding non-recurring items,$0.07 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.01); revenues fell 10.4% year/year to $103.9 mln vs the $98.6 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs +10-15% sequentially or roughly $114.3-119.5 mln vs. $104.50 mln consensus.

8:33AM World Wrestling beats by $0.09, misses on revs (WWE) 13.41 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.27 per share, $0.09 better than the First Call consensus of $0.18; revenues rose 7.0% year/year to $138.8 mln vs the $140.6 mln consensus. "We expect continuing economic uncertainty in the back half of the year. However, we believe that the strategic decisions we have made, and our ongoing commitment to manage operating costs, position us well to maximize the financial potential of our global brands."

8:13AM JMP Group beats by $0.14, beats on revs (JMP) 8.82 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.20 per share, $0.14 better than the single analyst estimate of $0.06; revenues rose 74.4% year/year to $37.5 mln vs the $28.4 mln estimate. Investment banking revenues were $10.6 mln for the quarter, compared to $10.8 mln for the second quarter of 2008. Net brokerage revenues were $9.4 mln for the quarter, compared to $8.7 mln for the second quarter of 2008.

8:12AM Wendy's reports EPS in-line, misses on revs (WEN) 4.75 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.06 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the First Call consensus of $0.06; revenues rose 191.6% year/year to $912.7 mln vs the $928.1 mln consensus. The Company continues to expect to achieve average annual adjusted EBITDA growth in the mid-teens through 2011. The Company remains on track with its key profit initiatives targeting a total of $160 million in annualized incremental EBITDA by the end of 2011. These targeted improvements include $100 million from improving Wendy's company-operated restaurant margin by 500 basis points and $60 million from achieving synergies and overhead reductions.

8:05AM Fuqi Intl beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides Q4 (Dec) EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY09 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (FUQI) 24.40 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.45 per share, $0.14 better than the First Call consensus of $0.31; revenues rose 50.7% year/year to $100.8 mln vs the $92.8 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.40-0.44 vs. $0.37 consensus; sees Q3 revs of $121.5-131.3 mln vs. $119.67 mln consensus. Co issues mixed guidance for Q4 (Dec), sees EPS of $0.52-0.59 vs. $0.53 consensus; sees Q4 (Dec) revs of $177.5-185.5 mln vs. $156.13 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.83-1.94 vs. $1.65 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $509.2-527.0 vs. $477.99 mln consensus. "As a result of the successful offering as well as market opportunities, we are raising our revenue and net income guidance for the remainder of this year. We believe that we have laid the foundation to successfully build a fully-integrated wholesale and retail operation that can capture a sizeable market share in the growing Chinese middle class market. We are enthusiastic about our future growth prospects, and believe we have the vision to build the leading jewelry provider in China."

8:03AM Gap Inc reports July comparable sales of -8.0% vs -8.6% Briefing.com consensus; sees Q2 EPS of $0.30-$0.32 vs $0.28 First Call consensus (GPS) 16.77 : Co reports July comparable sales of -8.0% vs -8.6% Briefing.com consensus. Co issues upside Q2 EPS guidance, sees EPS of $0.30-$0.32 vs $0.28 First Call consensus, reports total net sales of $3.24 bln vs $3.25 bln First Call consensus.

8:02AM Huntsman misses by $0.14, misses on revs (HUN) 7.36 : Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.27 per share, $0.14 worse than the First Call consensus of ($0.13); revenues fell 35.6% year/year to $1.87 bln vs the $1.96 bln consensus.

7:47AM Diana Shipping misses by $0.01, beats on revs (DSX) 14.27 -0.18 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.39 per share, $0.01 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.40; revenues fell 31.0% year/year to $59.8 mln vs the $57.3 mln consensus.

7:33AM Suburban Propane beats by $0.13, misses on revs (SPH) 43.57 : Reports Q3 (Jun) loss of $0.23 per share, $0.13 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.36); revenues fell 39.6% year/year to $184.4 mln vs the $222.2 mln consensus.

7:20AM Alliant Tech beats by $0.14, beats on revs; raises FY10 EPS and rev gudiance above consensus (ATK) 78.98 : Reports Q1 (Jun) earnings of $2.09 per share, $0.14 better than the First Call consensus of $1.95; revenues rose 7.5% year/year to $1.21 bln vs the $1.16 bln consensus. Co issues raises guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $8.45-8.60, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $8.21 consensus, up from $8.05-8.25 previously; sees FY10 revs of $4.80-4.85 bln vs. $4.78 bln consensus, up from $4.73-4.80 previously. The results were driven by top line sales growth, improved operating margins, reduced share count, and the absence of $15 million in charges in the prior-year quarter related to program performance in the company's spacecraft structures business.

7:12AM ANSYS beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; guides FY09 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (ANSS) 31.35 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.43 per share, $0.07 better than the First Call consensus of $0.36; revenues rose 11.7% year/year to $124.2 mln vs the $122.6 mln consensus. Co issues mixed guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.40-$0.42 vs. $0.41 consensus; sees Q3 revs of $123.4-$129.4 mln vs. $130.10 mln consensus. Co issues mixed guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.66-$1.76 vs. $1.61 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $510-$528 mln vs. $520.61 mln consensus. Co states, "While the global environment remains challenging, our revenues were within the range of our outlook with the ANSYS organic business stable in constant currencies. Our non-GAAP earnings exceeded the upper end of the range and were further supplemented by approximately $.02 of favorable tax benefits. We continued to deliver on our stated objectives of strong operating margins and cash flows, even during a time when the exact timing of business intake patterns is difficult to predict."

7:11AM Canadian Solar beats by $0.58, beats on revs; expects higher MW shipments for FY09 (CSIQ) 16.12 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.49 per share, $0.58 better thanthe First Call consensus of ($0.09); revenues fell 46.3% year/year to $114.2 mln vs the $94.1 mln consensus. Q209 shipments were 48.2 MW, including 39.5 MW of conventional high efficiency polysilicon modules, 7.0 MW of proprietary e-Modules, and 1.7 MW of cells and solar application products. Gross margin was 20.2% and net margin was 15.5%, compared to 1Q09 negative gross margin of 7.9% and 1Q09 negative net margin of 9.7%. Sales in Europe increased 86% to $66.9 mln in 2Q09 from $36.0 mln in 1Q09. Co also experienced strong sales growth in Asia and America, with sequential gains of 188% and 500%, respectively, over 1Q09. Based on the market situation, forecast and current order book, co expects to have shipments of approx 90 MW to 100 MW in 3Q09. CSIQ expects shipments of approx 260-270 MW for the full year 2009, up from prior guidance of 200 MW to 220 MW.

7:09AM King Pharms beats by $0.06, beats on revs (KG) 9.26 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.32 per share, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.26; revenues rose 12.1% year/year to $445 mln vs the $438 mln consensus. "Today's announcement of strong second quarter earnings underscores the successful and rapid integration of the Alpharma acquisition." Mr. Markison continued, "More importantly, we believe we are moving closer to an EMBEDA(TM) approval and recently defined a clear regulatory path forward for REMOXY(R). We also remain excited about the prospects for ACUROX(R), and look forward to meeting with the FDA next month. We believe that all three of these products represent a potential first in class opioid formulation designed to deter some of the more common forms of misuse and abuse."

7:07AM DIRECTV misses by $0.03, reports revs in-line (DTV) 25.76 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.40 per share, $0.03 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.43; revenues rose 8.6% year/year to $5.22 bln vs the $5.18 bln consensus. Net subscriber additions of 224,000 increased 74% from last year's second quarter due to a 17% increase in gross subscriber additions to 1,048,000 and an average monthly churn rate of 1.51%. The increase in gross additions was mainly due to the first full quarter of marketing the AT&T/DIRECTV bundle as well as higher demand for HD and DVR services. DIRECTV U.S. ended the quarter with 18.31 million subscribers, an increase of 7% over the 17.16 million subscribers reported on June 30, 2008.

7:07AM Neutral Tandem beats by $0.02, beats on revs; raises FY09 guidance (TNDM)32.18 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.31 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.29; revenues rose 44.1% year/year to $41.2 mln vs the $40.4 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY09, sees FY09 revs of $162-168 mln vs. $164.90 mln consensus, up from previous guidance of $158-165 mln. Billed minutes for the full year of 2009 are estimated to be between 85 billion minutes and 88 billion minutes, an increase from the previous forecast range of 83 bln minutes to 87 bln minutes. Billed minutes for Q2 increased 50.0% to 21.3 bln minutes for the three months ended June 30, 2009, compared to 14.2 bln minutes for the three months ended June 30, 2008.

7:04AM Teradata beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus (TDC) 24.92 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.36 per share, $0.11 better than the First Call consensus of $0.25; revenues fell 7.5% year/year to $421 mln vs the $413.9 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.22-1.28 vs. $1.18 consensus. For the full year, the co continues to expect selling, general and administrative expenses to be flat to down from 2008. Within this previously discussed expectation, the company expects higher selling expense, as well as higher research and development expense and amortization of capitalized software in the second half of the year, compared to these items in the first half of the year.

6:22AM China Information Security Technology beats by $0.03, beats on revenue; reaffirms FY09 revenue guidance (CPBY) 3.79 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.17, excluding items, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.14; revenues increased 4.4% year/year to $25.8 mln vs $24.69 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY09, sees revenue of $94.0-98.0 mln vs $95.54 mln consensus. Sees net pro-forma net income of $26.0-28.0 mln, excluding non-cash expenses.

6:16AM Stereotaxis beats by $0.01, beats on revs (STXS) 4.96 : Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.18 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.19); revenues rose 18.7% year/year to $12.6 mln vs the $11.3 mln consensus. Co also announces that its Board of Directors has named Daniel Johnston, as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective November 15, 2009.

6:07AM Western Refining beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line (WNR) 6.73 : Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.11 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.15); revenues fell 52.8% year/year to $1.58 bln vs the $1.57 bln consensus.

5:14AM Canadian Natrl Res beats by $0.08, beats on revs (CNQ) 63.20 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.18 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $1.10; revenues fell 42.6% year/year to $2.54 bln vs the $1.73 bln consensus. Total crude oil and NGLs production for Q209 was 365,672 bbl/d, an increase of 11% from the previous quarter.

4:38AM Orion Marine beats by $0.07, misses on revs; sees 16-21% revenue growth in Q3; announces contracts valued at approx $29.0 mln (ORN) 23.51 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.28 per share, $0.07 better than the First Call consensus of $0.21; revenues rose 5.5% year/year to $70.8 mln vs the $73.8 mln consensus. Revenue growth for the quarter was lower than the co's second quarter revenue growth goal of 8% to 12% as a result of delays in project start dates related to fluctuations in timeframes for permitting, contract award, and notices to proceed from the customer. For FY09, co is tracking potential bid opportunities of $4.0-4.5 bln of which approx $800 million could be liquidated in 2009. Given current backlog and potential bid opportunities, ORN expects Q309 revenue will grow 16-21% year/year. Q3 EBITDA margin goal is 15-17%. Co remains comfortable with its previously stated FY09 year-over-year revenue growth goal of 12-16% and its FY09 EBITDA margin goal of 14-18%. However, given the timing shifts of revenue during the second quarter and expected low material pricing which could reduce overall contract values, ORN believes its revenue growth for the FY09 could reasonably be at the lower end of the stated FY09 revenue growth goal range. Also, the co believes the favorable EBITDA margins experienced in the first and second quarters will boost its full year EBITDA margin towards the middle to upper end of its FY09 EBITDA margin goal range. Seperately, co announces they were awarded contracts valued at approx $29.0 mln.

2:15AM Unilever plc reports 2Q09 results (UL) 26.21 : Co reports 2Q09 EPS of EUR0.33, ex-items. Underlying sales growth was 4.1%. Volume growth was 2.0%, with all regions positive. Growth driven by improved execution, innovation and increased marketing spend. Advertising and promotion spend increased by 50 bps. Operating margin before one-time items was down by 60 bps (including 30 bps of margin dilution from disposals), in line with expectations.

1:23AM Seaspan misses by $0.03, beats on revs (SSW) 7.10 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.23 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.26; revenues rose 27.1% year/year to $69.8 mln vs the $68 mln consensus.

1:20AM Tenaris beats by $0.18, beats on revs; expects sales and operating income will be lower in 2H09 than 1H09 (TS) 31.57 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.58 per ADS$0.18 better than the First Call consensus of $0.40; revenues fell 32.6% year/year to $2.1 bln vs the $2.03 bln consensus. customers. Shipments of tubular products fell 47% year on year and 19% sequentially, with the US and European markets being particularly affected. Operating margins, particularly in North American welded pipe operations, are being affected by very low production levels and our decision to maintain our industrial system and human resources prepared for the future recovery in demand.Demand for co's pipes from the global energy industry has been affected by the decline in oil and gas drilling activity and the actions taken by customers to adjust to reduced cash flows and a less favorable market outlook, including procurement delays and cancellations and the postponement of new project activity. Demand in the US and Canada has been further affected by extraordinarily high levels of OCTG inventories. Demand for pipes from the industrial and power generation segments remain at low levels. Co expects shipments for large-diameter pipes for pipeline projects in South America, in the second half of the year, to remain close to the levels shown during the first half, however the order backlog continues to decline as new projects are postponed. Steel and steelmaking raw material costs have stabilized and in recent weeks have shown some increase. However costs, particularly at our North American welded pipe operations, will continue to be adversely affected by low production levels and the high cost of raw material inventories procured under different market conditions, partially offset by the actions taken to reduce our structural costs. With low levels of demand likely to persist until the end of the year and prices adjusting downwards they expect that our sales and operating income will be lower in the second half of the year than the first. Co expects that there will be a recovery in shipments going into 2010 but that our revenues may not recover to the same extent considering the lagged effect of price declines in results.

1:13AM Ormat Tech beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides FY09 revs in-line and increases Product Segment revenue guidance for FY09 (ORA) 40.33 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.35 per share, $0.07 better than the First Call consensus of $0.28; revenues rose 24.9% year/year to $100.2 mln vs the $92.5 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidancefor FY09, sees FY09 revs of $382.0-400.0 mln vs. $390.69 mln consensus. With the delay in the commercial operation of North Brawley, co expects their 2009 Electricity Segment revenues to be $252.0-260.0 mln. ORA also expects additional revenues of approx $9 mln from share of electricity revenues generated by Mammoth that is accounted for under the equity method. With regard to Product Segment, co increases guidance for 2009 revenues and expect them to now be between $130.0-140.0 mln.

12:44AM InterOil beats by $0.14, misses on revenue (IOC) 29.55 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.24 per share, $0.14 better than the 0.10 First Call consensus; revenues declined 32.1% year/year to $148.5 mln vs $188.52 consensus. During the quarter, InterOil's Midstream Refining segment generated a net profit of $9.6 mln, compared with a net profit $11.3 mln for the same quarter in 2008. Throughput averaged 21,574 barrels per day in 2Q09 vs 21,694 in the comparable period a year ago. Capacity utilization, based on 36,500 barrels per day operating capacity was 39% for the quarter as compared to 30% in the same quarter of 2008.

Earnings - 5th Aug 2009

2009-08-06T00:45:00.000-04:00

8:37AM XTO Energy beats by $0.05, beats on revs; provides production guidance and raises capital budget (XTO) 42.60 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.87 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of $0.82; revenues rose 17.4% year/year to $2.27 bln vs the $2.15 bln consensus. 2Q09 production was 2.89 bln cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) per day, up 32% from the second quarter 2008 level of 2.20 Bcfe per day, and up 6% sequentially from 2.73 Bcfe per day in first quarter 2009. The co is raising its targeted annual production growth to 20% for 2009. This guidance reflects a lower rig count and anticipates involuntary curtailment in the second half of 2009 due to high natural gas storage levels. The estimated ranges of average daily production for the remainder of 2009 are: 2,270-2,290 MMcf for natural gas, 19 MBbl for NGL, and 68 MBbl for oil. Total gas equivalent is estimated to be 2,792-2,812 MMcfe. Realized natural gas and oil prices are expected to average below the NYMEX prices due to regional differentials. The co is increasing its budget for development and exploration expenditures from $2.75 bln to $3.1 bln. Expenditures for construction of pipeline infrastructure, compression and processing facilities will increase from $450 mln to $500 mln.

8:19AM Calgon Carbon Correction: Co reported Q2 EPS of $0.11 vs the $0.16 consensus (CCC) 13.17 : In our 8:05 comment we incorrectly reported CCC Q2 EPS of $0.18, when in fact the company reported Q2 EPS of $0.11. Our original comment has been deleted... CCC actually reported Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.11 per share, $0.05 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.16; revenues fell 5.0% year/year to $103.1 mln vs the $102.6 mln consensus. The decline in net sales was attributable to the comparably strong U.S. dollar, which resulted in a $6.0-mln negative impact on sales from currency translation, and lower demand for certain activated carbon and service products due to the global economic slowdown. Markets that were appreciably affected by the decline in demand included: potable water, environmental water treatment, industrial processes, and food. The sales decline was partially offset by favorable pricing in certain markets. In the second quarter of 2009, equipment sales increased 5.4% versus the comparable period in 2008 due to higher revenue from ultraviolet systems. Consumer sales were comparable to the second quarter of 2008.

8:04AM Polo Ralph Lauren beats by $0.26, beats on revs (RL) 63.79 : Reports Q1 (Jun) earnings of $0.76 per share, $0.26 better than the First Call consensus of $0.50; revenues fell 8.1% year/year to $1.02 bln vs the $1.01 bln consensus.

7:41AM Cardtronics beats by $0.12, beats on revs; raises FY09 rev and EPS guidance (CATM) 4.55 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.17 per share, ex-items, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.05; revenues fell 1.9% year/year to $124.6 mln vs the $118.7 mln consensus. Co raises guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $0.40-0.50, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.22 consensus, up from previous guidance of $0.12-0.22; sees FY09 revs of $470-480 mln vs. $469.33 mln consensus, up from previous guidance of $460-470 mln. Excluding the impact of unfavorable foreign currency exchange rate movements, year-over-year revenues increased by 3%. These increases were primarily attributable to higher gross margin rates in 2009. Key drivers of margin improvement were a more favorable revenue mix, lower vault cash rental costs (due to lower market interest rates) and the results of mgmt's efforts to reduce other operating costs.

7:40AM Owens Corning beats by $0.40, misses on revs (OC) 19.24 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.49 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.40 better than the First Call consensus of $0.09; revenues fell 22.6% year/year to $1.22 bln vs the $1.34 bln consensus. Gross margin as a percentage of sales was 21% in the second quarter of 2009, compared with 16% in the same period of 2008. The quarter was highlighted by continued strong performance in Roofing sales, which were up 14% compared with the second quarter of 2008. The prolonged downturn in the U.S. housing market led to lower sales of insulation and other building materials. Composites sales were lower because of global economic weakness, which began in the fourth quarter of 2008. The business environment is expected to remain challenging through 2H09. Capacity will remain curtailed; costs and capital spending will be lower compared to 2008. The co is on track to deliver $160 mln in cost savings during 2009. Capital expenditures will be approx $225.0 mln, which is a reduction of about $140.0 mln compared with 2008, in each case excluding precious metal purchases.

7:32AM Almost Family beats by $0.04, beats on revs (AFAM) 31.59 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.71 per share, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.67; revenues rose 53.8% year/year to $74.9 mln vs the $69.2 mln consensus. Co says "We're pleased to report strong operating results for the second quarter. In the midst of great public debate about health care reform, we're continuing to demonstrate that home health care represents the lowest cost, highest quality way to keep the frail homebound elderly out of high cost institutional care and in their homes where they want to be. Over the course of 2009 we plan to continue our strategic efforts to grow and expand our business. We also plan to work hard to help the Administration, Congress and all those working on comprehensive health care reform understand how important home health care is as a part of the solution to lowering health care costs and ensuring access to care for all America's seniors."

7:32AM Transocean misses by $0.24, misses on revs (RIG) 80.33 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $2.79 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.24 worse than the First Call consensus of $3.03; revenues fell 7.6% year/year to $2.88 bln vs the $2.94 bln consensus.

7:14AM Georgia Gulf reports Q2 results (GGC) 32.20 : Co reports Q2 EPS of ($2.13) vs $18.01 in 2Q08; total net loss of $3.0 mln compares to net income of $27.9 mln during 2Q08. Sales fell 38% YoY to $524.3 mln vs the $550 mln consensus. The decrease in sales is primarily due to lower prices resulting from lower feedstock and energy costs and lower volumes driven by extremely difficult North American housing and construction market conditions. As of June 30, 2009, the Company had $112.0 mln of liquidity, consisting of $104.3 mln of cash on hand as well as $7.7 mln of borrowing capacity available under its revolving credit facility. Additionally, as of June 30, 2009, the Company had $87.8 mln outstanding under its $175 mln accounts receivables securitization facility.

7:11AM Lumber Liquidators beats by $0.02, beats on revs; raises FY09 guidance (LL)17.18 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.25 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.23; revenues rose 11.8% year/year to $143.1 mln vs the $139.3 mln consensus. Co raises FY09 EPS guidance to $0.85-$0.91 from prior guidance of $0.76-$0.86 vs. $0.84 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $528 mln-538 mln, up from prior guidance of $515-530 mln vs. $527.92 mln consensus.

7:09AM Marsh McLennan beats by $0.01, misses on revs (MMC) 21.50 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.33 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.32; revenues fell 13.3% year/year to $2.63 bln vs the $2.76 bln consensus. "Overall, we have made excellent progress strengthening our operating companies while at the same time managing through the worst effects of the economic recession."

7:08AM LoJack beats by $0.13, beats on revs (LOJN) 4.68 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.13 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.04); revenues fell 31.1% year/year to $35.4 mln vs the $34.6 mln consensus. During the second quarter of 2009, the company did not repurchase any shares. As of June 30, 2009, the company had an outstanding authority to repurchase 1,681,778 shares.

7:08AM Newstar Financial misses by $0.15 (NEWS) 2.38 : Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.30 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.15 worse than the First Call consensus of ($0.15). Allowance for credit losses increased to 3.86% from 2.81% in prior quarter as charge-offs increased slightly to 2.66% and non-performing loans increased to 6.68%. Net interest income increased to $23.61 mln vs $22.16 mln in 2Q08.

7:08AM Orbitz beats by $0.18, reports revs in-line (OWW) 3.73 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.12 per share, $0.18 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.06); revenues fell 18.6% year/year to $188 mln vs the $188.4 mln consensus. Global gross bookings were down 12% (10% on a constant currency basis) for the quarter compared with the year earlier period. This decline was primarily due to lower air fares and lower average hotel rates, partially offset by growth in total transactions. "Despite a challenging economic and travel environment, our domestic air transaction growth rate increased by 22 percentage points versus the first quarter 2009, and our dynamic packaging product continued to post strong volume growth as a result of the value we provide to customers who 'get it together and save. Internationally ebookers delivered strong net revenue growth as we realize the benefits of the new global platform."

7:06AM Procter & Gamble beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line; guides FY10 EPS in-line (PG) 55.46 : Reports Q4 (Jun) earnings of $0.80 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.79; revenues fell 10.6% year/year to $18.66 bln vs the $19.32 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.95-1.00 vs. $1.00 consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $3.65-3.80 vs. $3.76 consensus. "In fiscal 2010, we will accelerate investments in innovation, portfolio expansion and consumer value to grow our core business and to serve more consumers in both developed and developing markets," said Chief Executive Officer Bob McDonald. "We will also continue to drive simplification efforts and leverage P&G's scale to increase productivity, improve execution and lower costs. All of these investments are focused on strengthening the capabilities required to improve more lives more completely in more parts of the world and deliver sustainable long-term growth."

7:06AM Agrium beats by $0.54, beats on revs (AGU) 47.08 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $2.35 per share, $0.54 better than the First Call consensus of $1.81; revenues rose 5.7% year/year to $4.09 bln vs the $3.4 bln consensus. Co said, "The outlook for our businesses and products remains strong and we are starting to see signs of improving demand fundamentals as we approach the fall season. Our Retail crop protection and seed businesses in particular delivered excellent results and we ended the season with normal crop nutrient inventories in our Retail business. We continue to anticipate a recovery in potash demand later in the second half of 2009." Regarding Agrium's proposal to acquire CF co said, "We remain fully committed to acquiring CF, with continued conviction that an Agrium and CF combination would create significant value for all stockholders and other stakeholders. We will continue to press CF to execute a mutually beneficial merger agreement despite the fact that CF has so far ignored a clear mandate from their stockholders' to conclude a transaction with us. Our offer remains far superior to any alternative articulated by CF, including remaining independent or paying a premium for Terra."

7:04AM Intl Flavors beats by $0.03, misses on revs (IFF) 36.42 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.65 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.62; revenues fell 10.7% year/year to $568.3 mln vs the $583.6 mln consensus. Fragrance sales declined 7.0% in local currency versus the second quarter.

7:04AM Dean Foods reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line; guides FY09 EPS in-line (DF) 21.34 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.43 per share, in-linewith the First Call consensus of $0.43; revenues fell 13.6% year/year to $2.68 bln vs the $2.81 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees EPS of at least $0.30 vs. $0.34 consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY09, sees EPS of at least $1.60 vs. $1.67 consensus. "Commodities continue to be favorable, and our efforts to drive costs out of the business are getting traction and increasingly impacting results. While we see continued competitive activity in our fluid milk operations and are cautious about diminished commodity favorability in the future, our businesses carry significant momentum into the second half of the year."

7:03AM Garmin beats by $0.32, beats on revs (GRMN) 27.18 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.83 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.32 better than the First Call consensus of $0.51; revenues fell 26.6% year/year to $669 mln vs the $657.1 mln consensus. Gross margin for the overall business in the second quarter was 52.6% with all four segments posting year-over-year margin improvement. Operating margin increased from 13.3% to 29.8% in the current quarter on a sequential basis and from 26.2% in the year-ago quarter. "While the macroeconomic conditions continue to dampen consumer demand, we are encouraged by the 53% sequential improvement in revenues in the second quarter. We are also pleased with the solid margins and earnings in the quarter achieved by the various initiatives that we have taken to improve productivity, reduce expenses and utilize the strength of our balance sheet."

7:01AM WNS beats by $0.04, beats on revs; reaffirms FY10 revs guidance (WNS) 12.45 : Reports Q1 (Jun) earnings of $0.30 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.26; revenues rose 11.2% year/year to $136.7 mln vs the $95.7 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY10, sees FY10 revs of $385-390 mln vs. $390.69 mln consensus.

6:52AM Devon Energy beats by $0.12, beats on revs (DVN) 61.23 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.71 per share, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.59; revenues fell 41.1% year/year to $2.09 bln vs the $1.92 bln consensus. Combined oil, gas and natural gas liquids production averaged 719 thousand Boe per day in the second quarter of 2009. This is the highest average daily production of any quarter in Devon's history and compares with 643 thousand Boe per day in the second quarter of 2008. Average daily production in the second quarter increased five percent sequentially, compared with 685 thousand Boe per day produced in the first quarter of 2009.

6:51AM Overseas Shipholding beats by $0.37, beats on revs (OSG) 35.92 : Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.29 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.37 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.66); revenues fell 34.0% year/year to $282.7 mln vs the $260 mln consensus. For the quarter ended June 30, 2009, the co reported time charter equivalent revenues of $248.4 mln, a 36% decline from $386.1 mln in 2008. The decline in TCE revenues was due to lower daily TCE rates earned by all of the Company's international flag vessel classes, offset by a 77 day increase in revenue days. "As we expected, a convergence of events caused tanker markets to deteriorate in the first half of 2009. The global economic contraction led to a sharp decline in world demand for oil, notably in OECD countries, which in turn resulted in significant OPEC production cuts. This situation was exacerbated by an increase in vessel deliveries across our core segments. We expect the trend toward an oversupplied vessel market to moderate as very tight ship finance markets and the weakening financial condition of less well-capitalized ship owners and shipyards result in a contracting tanker orderbook. The single hull phase-out over the next eighteen months will further benefit the economics of the global tanker trading fleet."

6:47AM Foster Wheeler beats by $0.36, misses on revs (FWLT) : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.98 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.36 better than the First Call consensus of $0.62; revenues fell 23.1% year/year to $1.31 bln vs the $1.36 bln consensus. Co said, "The company's net income in the second quarter of 2009 was driven by very strong EBITDA generation. Specifically, the company reported an increase in consolidated EBITDA in the second quarter of 2009 as compared to the average quarter of 2008, excluding the impact of approximately $17 million of unfavorable currency translation. The increase was due to outstanding commercial and operational performance in both of our business groups. In addition, the strong performance of our Global Engineering and Construction Group was bolstered by its ability to capture available profit enhancement opportunities during the quarter. Also, our Global Power Group's performance benefited from the actions it has taken over the past several years in the pursuit of commercial and operational excellence."

6:33AM Donnelley & Sons beats by $0.06, misses on revs (RRD) 14.46 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.37 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.31; revenues fell 19.4% year/year to $2.36 bln vs the $2.41 bln consensus. Gross margin decreased to 25.4% in the second quarter of 2009 from 26.7% in the second quarter of 2008 due to price and volume declines and lower by-products recovery, offset in part by the benefits of our continued productivity efforts and lower variable compensation expense. "We continued to be impacted by the global economic recession during the second quarter, as most of the end-markets that we serve experienced reduced demand. The pace of decline was similar to that which we experienced during the first quarter and consistent with our expectations."

6:04AM Quanta Services beats by $0.04, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus (PWR) 23.44 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.20 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.16; revenues fell 15.4% year/year to $813.4 mln vs the $860.6 mln consensus. Co issuesdownside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.23-0.24, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.28 consensus; sees Q3 revs of $840.0-870.0 mln vs. $1.04 bln consensus. "Despite an environment of economic turmoil, with customers awaiting government funding and most of the country still struggling with uncertainty, our market outlook shows improvement for the second half of this year," said John R. Colson, chairman and CEO. "Our focus on effectively maintaining margins during the current economic environment should position us well as spending by our customers returns. We continue to receive indications from our customers that 2010 and 2011 will reflect further strengthening in our end markets."

5:55AM PetroQuest Energy beats by $0.02, beats on revs (PQ) 3.68 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.15 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.13; revenues fell 40.5% year/year to $55.3 mln vs the $53.8 mln consensus. Production for the second quarter of 2009 was 8.6 Bcfe, compared to 8.4 Bcfe for the comparable period of 2008. For 3Q09, co estimates production volume of 80-85 MMcfe/d. For FY09, co estimates production volume fo 90-100 MMcfe/d.

3:25AM Baker Hughes misses by $0.05, beats on revs (BHI) 41.97 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.46; revenues fell 22.1% year/year to $2.34 bln vs the $2.25 bln consensus. Chad C. Deaton,chairman, president and chief executive officer, said, "Our second quarter results reflect trends in the North America and International markets. For North America, the decline in activity has been severe; however, in recent weeks the market has been stabilizing. We believe the decline in the US rig count is now behind us and we expect a gradual increase in drilling activity beginning in 2010. Pricing deterioration has slowed and with our cost cutting efforts we expect the second quarter 2009 to have marked the bottom for North America profitability. "Internationally, the decline in activity has been less severe and isolated to specific geographic areas. The recent strengthening of oil prices provides support for customer activity in the second half of 2009 and sets the stage for incremental growth in spending in 2010; however, price concessions negotiated in the first half of 2009 will drive international profitability lower in the second half of the year."

3:04AM T-3 Energy Services beats by $0.06, beats on revs (TTES) 13.40 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.38 per share, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.32; revenues fell 17.6% year/year to $55.8 mln vs the $50.8 mln consensus. During the quarter, industry declines and the seasonal spring break-up in Canada caused average worldwide rig counts to decrease at more than twice this rate, or 25%. For the quarter, revenues on items destined for delivery to customer locations outside the U.S represented 61% of total revenues, which is sequentially up from 56% and reflects the co's continued success in international markets. Net bookings for the quarter were $41.8 mln compared with $46.1 mln in the prior quarter, and backlog decreased to $45.4 mln at June 30 vs $59.4 mln at March 31, 2009. Gross margins were 37% for 2Q09, compared to 38% for the first quarter.

12:38AM Douglas Emmett reports in-line; narrows FY09 FFO guidance (DEI) 11.44 : Reports Q2 (Jun) funds from operations of $0.32 per share, in-line with First Call consensus of $0.32; revenues declined 9.8% year/year to $139.8 mln vs $143.04 mln First Call consensus. Co narrows FY09 FFO guidance range to $1.25-1.29 (previous $1.24-1.30), excluding non-recurring items, vs $1.28 First Call consensus.

12:27AM American Capital misses by $0.13, misses on revs (ACAS) 3.61 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.09 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.13 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.22; revenues fell 46.8% year/year to $140 mln vs the $192.7 mln consensus. Realized (Loss) earnings decreased to ($1.41) per diluted share for the quarter ended June 30, 2009, compared to $0.95 per diluted share for the prior year quarter. The Realized (Loss) earnings for the quarter included a realized loss of ($196) million, or ($0.90) per diluted share, related to the sale of portfolio co Consolidated Bedding. Co declares $1.07/share dividend (10% cash/90% stock).