23rd Sept 2026

 LONG - 

AI data center buildout plays! 

VRT

• Deepest moat: Vertiv (VRT) — spec lock-in + installed base creates near-irreplaceable position

• Best risk/reward: Trane Technologies (TT) at ~28x forward vs. VRT at ~48–53x, with similar data center tailwinds

• Highest growth rate: Comfort Systems USA (FIX) and Modine (MOD) — both growing data center revenue 70%+ y/y

• Most diversified safety: Schneider Electric (SU.PA) — data center is only ~15% of revenue, so AI capex slowdown hits less

GLW 

GEV

SYM CARR 

FSLR

 DOCN

    P

COST 

UBER

INOD 

APP

GLD

SLV

Crypto HYPE 

SOFI

DRAM SKHY ARM AMD HPQ DELL CBRS MRVL ANET AKAM LITE COHR AVGO

BTCI etc. 

CRWD

ALAB 

CRDO

NVDA 

Asymmetric Ideas: invest in robotics parts and supply chain, supply chain of AI buildouts, cybersecurity GLW

Med companies - ZBH MDT SYK ISRG

SHORT: XOM CVX - look at their monthly chart plus politics will solve for oil price

13F Q1 2026 - Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness LP (CIK 0002045724) latest 13F is for Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), filed May 18, 2026.

 

Bonde method entry points

Here’s a Bonde-style watchlist built from the philosophy of finding stocks with strong momentum, then waiting for consolidation or a clean breakout setup.

Watchlist

Ticker	Why it fits	Practical setup to watch
APP	Strong momentum and large upside expectations from analyst coverage .	Watch for a tight consolidation above recent highs and a breakout on volume.
DASH	Analyst-favored growth name with meaningful upside .	Look for a pullback that holds prior breakout support.
CRM	Large-cap momentum/growth candidate with upside listed by analysts .	Best if it builds a base after a strong run.
ANET	Featured among strong earnings-growth names .	Watch for a continuation breakout after a shallow pullback.
DDOG	Included in the high-upside analyst list .	Prefer a tight range and rising relative strength before entry.
INTU	Appears in both upside and earnings-acceleration lists .	Look for a breakout from consolidation, not a chase after extended moves.
GOOGL	Analyst-favored growth name with strong earnings profile .	Wait for a low-risk base breakout.
FICO	Very high upside estimate on the analyst list .	Only interesting if it forms a controlled pause after strength.
AEVA	Recently strong performer in the up-and-coming stock list .	Use as a high-risk, high-volatility momentum candidate.
AXTI	Very large 1-year gain in the recent “up-and-coming” list .	Watch for continuation after a first consolidation.

Why these names

Bonde’s approach emphasizes stocks that already showed short-term momentum and are then pausing in consolidation, because that is where breakouts tend to form. The momentum-ranking material also stresses focusing on the strongest stocks in the market and prioritizing a smaller, higher-quality watchlist rather than a long one. That means the goal is not “cheap stocks,” but stocks with strength, sponsorship, and a clean technical setup.

Breakout rules

A good Bonde-style setup usually has three things: prior upside momentum, a pause or tight range, and then a breakout with volume. For entries, the cleanest version is buying as price clears the consolidation high, or on a controlled pullback that holds support before turning back up. If the stock is already far extended, it is usually better to wait than to chase.

 

Can MMM be like GE after the CEO change? GO LONG MMM!!!

Commodities Entry points

NATGAS (ET PAA KMI NWN ENB ) , Grains and Corn managed-money futures positions (hedge funds) have reached the most extreme net short (vs. open interest) since 2006. Diminishing bear market room in corn (grains) may be turning attention toward crude oil. Courtesy: McGlone BI posts. 

On a separate note -  

The implied volatility of call options on gold has plummeted to one of its lowest levels in history. Last time volatility was this subdued, gold experienced a 75% rally in the subsequent years.

While these returns may appear modest in today’s speculative environment, such movement in a macro asset of this magnitude could unleash other important trends that are long-overdue.

Currently priced for failure, the mining industry stands out as one of the best distressed opportunities, in my view. Additionally, it's worth noting that historically, every gold cycle has synchronized with a cycle for other commodities, often boosting the valuations of resource-rich economies like emerging markets.  

The drop in implied volatility of call options on gold to historically low levels may signal an upcoming surge in gold prices, potentially impacting the mining industry and related markets. Here are the key points to consider:

- Historically, low volatility in gold options has been followed by substantial price increases, given gold's role as a major macro asset.
- The undervalued mining industry may see growth if gold prices rise, offering potentially high returns for investors.
- Gold cycles have historically impacted broader commodity cycles, driving up the value of resource-rich economies.
- Increasing exposure to gold and related industries could provide portfolio diversification and help manage risk during uncertain economic periods.

In summary, this situation may present promising investment opportunities in the mining industry and related markets. It's important to conduct thorough research and assess individual risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

Lastly, the delinquencies are at 20 year high. 

Massive insider sells across the board - 

WMT Insiders sold, JPM's Dimon sold, Bezos sold 

Good Entry points !!

 DIS

IFF

PYPL

 SQ

CCJ

Oil ( OIH upstream pipelines) & Gas (XOM CVX) , CLB, FTK? 

Silver (sivr) 

Gold (NEM RGLD)

MMM (?) 

ABNB

Reaching Euphoria - all time highs...

 The markets have rallied substantially since the  March'20 bottom. SPACs, IPOs craze is visible in all forums, especially fueled by the new generation of Robinhood traders. Tiktok videos are being made on stock trading. Youtube channels are pumping names and creating significant moves. These are unprecedented times where stimulus money is flowing in - the traders are buying/selling without commissions, and their relatively young age guarantees that they've not had major learnings of how the market forces truly work. The new normal due to fed put and unlimited QE and stimulus has run it's course and may inflate the tulip bubble even further - no one can time a top. Nevertheless, the charts and the sentiments are definitely flagging caution. 

Credits: Citigroup research