Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Out of STEC, ENER calls, entered NDAQ calls

Since the market gods granted my wish by going higher yesterday and today (at least the ones I owned, i.e., ENER, STEC), I am going to cash in my positions and enter into a better Risk-reward longs... I am long NDAQ call spread, long SRS call spread (hedge), long UNG call spread... I think we may continue rally even after the FOMC tommorow and may be the Friday's report will bring everything crashing down.. No one can say what exactly will be the path downwards but I feel that we eventually will resume to the downside and any pop to test 1100 on $SPX will be a gift from heavens...Chances are that we are going to see $SPX test 1100 sooner than I thought we would.... I am going to be positioned long in the meantime and will wait for FOMC announcement tomorrow before jumping full in, mostly on the long side (hopefully)... If we tank tomorrow (less likely), I will cash out and wait for the dust to clear and look for signals then to enter either short or long depending on what the $DXY does after the FOMC announcement.


PS: I think STEC could pop higher on earnings today but am not going to gamble on it.. I got the pop that I was looking for and am now happy with whatever I could get in profits.. :)

EDIT: 5PM: Lucky I was out of STEC calls... the POS stock is trading $7 down after hours on not-so-great guidance(soft revenue)! Its Massoud playing AAPL thinking he would sandbag earnings by guiding low but he forgot that AAPL ACTUALLY beats the low-guided earnings heftily and consistently... Phew!

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Intermediate bounce likely.. Look at BDI...


We are sitting at much oversold levels and possibly just should (wishful thinking) bounce if not just grind sideways until the FOMC decision comes out later this week... that could be the next big catalyst for the dollar to shoot higher and the market to tank! Is Bernanke ready for a big makeover? (change from Helicopter Ben to a stingy Scholar?)

Meantime, BDI is rising steadily... its in an uptrend with prices nicely bouncing off of 5EMA consistently... Until that changes, BDI will continue its upward trend.. It would be interesting to see how it performs this week... Who knows, this may a sign that the market is not ready for the BIG correction that everyone is waiting for...

I am positioned long for the coming week...long Dec 27 STEC and Jan 17 ENER calls and no puts at all... Makes me wary but am taking the risk based on the oversold readings that I see in the Index charts and am well aware that the oversold market can always stay oversold for long (er) time and may continue its slide but am comfortable to be long these calls from risk-reward POV...

Cheers...

Sunday, October 25, 2009

NKE - Insider unloading heavily - Should you?

Since Oct 14, one of the NIKE directors has sold most of his holdings in a rapid manner... Is this relentless selling going to be a harbinger of something ominous to come at NIKE? Or does the Director just needs to raise some cash ( some 100 millions or more) to feed his starved and shivering chuwawa?

Will wait and see... meantime, I am long 65-60 Put Spread!

Note of caution: Insiders rarely get it right... Case in point, STEC 10% owner sold all of his shares in Aug. at 24-29 and then the shares hit $40! Ouch! Also, I mentioned Jeff Bezos selling his shares, tiny amount that is, in May in the 80s and now AMZN is trading at $119. Nevertheless, I am short NKE because I think short term the move upward is overdone!

AMZN - Hitting wall every which way!


AMZN is trading in $26 channels and is at the top of the latest $26 channel. Besides it is also at the top range of the bearish rising wedge resistance line and finally the forward PE is ~ 50. Could it still rise above this massive resistance wall? - just to trap some bulls like it trapped some bears earlier this year when the bears thought that AMZN is going to hell, even to single digits, only to trap them and shoot sky high since then!

This is a tricky monster stock - there is not much short interest now to justify the run in the prices lately. Its clear that this is sheer buying frenzy that was started by the big boys, which eventually will suck in some retailers only when it reaches extreme (125 anyone?) just to wash out all shorts and suck in new longs only to make them weep later?

AMZN - am gonna watch you like a hawk!

EDIT: Monday 10:40AM - If the AMZN train continues to close 2-3 days positively, it may just go towards the higher end of the new $26 challenl starting from 119, i.e., it may test the $145 area before any weakness... I, for one, think that so much upward movement is unlikely given the overbought levels its sitting at right now... you never know for sure what this crazy stock will do though.. so, until then I am long Nov 120-115 put spread, got in at 124 this morning.. and I am ready to close it as soon as I see AMZN trading over today's high from this morning..

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Earnings - 22nd Oct 2009

6:34PM Bucyrus beats by $0.35, beats on revs (BUCY) 42.53 -0.05 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.21 per share, $0.35 better than the First Call consensus of $0.86; revenues rose 4.6% year/year to $675.8 mln vs the $623.4 mln consensus.

4:19PM Synaptics beats by $0.06, beats on revs (SYNA) 23.66 +0.93 : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.48 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.42; revenues rose 3.7% year/year to $119.6 mln vs the $116.4 mln consensus. Q3 gross margin of 40.4% vs. 40.6% street expectation. "We saw a sharp year-over-year increase in our mobile touchscreen business, where we are working with the top handset makers to broaden penetration of capacitive touchscreen phones around the world. Synaptics won a number of important new designs during the quarter, and design activity remains robust,"

4:18PM Western Digital beats by $0.31, beats on revs (WDC) 37.11 +1.25 : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $1.25 per share, $0.31 better than the First Call consensus of $0.94; revenues rose 4.3% year/year to $2.2 bln vs the $2.06 bln consensus. WDC reports Q1 hard drive shipments of 44.6 mln compared to 40 mln in Q4. "In the September quarter, we leveraged our organization-wide agility to respond to unexpectedly robust demand and again generated strong financial results. As we enter the December quarter, demand remains strong and our product line-up, availability and cost profile position us to benefit from continuing growth opportunities."

4:18PM Chipotle Mexican Grill beats by $0.20, reports revs in-line (CMG) 87.77 +4.29 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.08 per share, $0.20 better than the First Call consensus of $0.88; revenues rose 13.8% year/year to $387.6 mln vs the $388.2 mln consensus. Full year comparable restaurant increases in the low single digits. For FY10, co sees flat comparable restaurant sales.

4:15PM Align Tech beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (ALGN) 15.38 +0.44 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.13 per share, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 5.5% year/year to $79.3 mln vs the $73.8 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.08-$0.10 vs. $0.06 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $77.5-$81 mln vs. $76.58 mln consensus.

4:12PM Sunpower beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS in-line, revs above consensus (SPWRA) 33.30 +0.94 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.42 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.40; revenues rose 56.4% year/year to $466 mln vs the $420.1 mln consensus. SPWRA reports gross margin 20.7% compared to 22.6% in Q2. Co issues mixed guidance for FY09, sees EPS of 1.15-1.25 vs. $1.21 consensus; tightens FY09 revs to $1.425-1.50 bln from $1.35-1.70 bln vs. $1.43 bln consensus.

4:08PM Deckers Outdoor beats by $0.34, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (DECK) 91.74 +2.25 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.59 per share, $0.34 better than the First Call consensus of $2.25; revenues rose 15.8% year/year to $228.4 mln vs the $227.7 mln consensus. DECK raises guidance, sees Q4 EPS growth of 5%, up from prior guidance of -4% and vs -3.5% consensus; co sees revs growth of +4%, up from prior guidance to decrease slightly YoY and vs +0.3% consensus. Q4 (Dec) guidance equates to EPS of $4.25 vs. $3.90 consensus; sees Q4 (Dec) revs of $315.60 mln vs. $303.85 mln consensus. Deckers Outdoor guidance also assumes a gross profit margin of approximately 47.0%, compared to previous expectations of 47.5%. "In addition to exceeding expectations, our third quarter results highlight our efforts to further diversify our product lines, expand our share of the market, and control expenses. Our UGG brand sales continue to be led by our core boot category, with the performance of several new styles driving the strong start to the fall selling season. Our focus on broadening the depth of our collections has enabled us to increase shelf space and attract new consumers to the brand. At the same time, we had a positive response to our more technical line of closed toe, light hikers, which will help establish our Teva brand as a true year-round brand and provide important momentum for spring 2010. Our Simple brand is also experiencing solid sell-through as ecoSNEAKS continue to perform well at major accounts such as Nordstrom and Journeys. We are very pleased with our ability to successfully execute our business plan in what continues to be an uncertain economic environment. We remain focused on effectively managing our expenses and inventory levels and are moving forward excited about the many long-term domestic and international growth opportunities that lie ahead for the Company." UGG brand net sales for the third quarter increased 19.1% to $212.8 million compared to $178.7 million for the same period last year. The sales gain was primarily attributable to an increase in domestic and international shipments of fall product versus the same period a year ago. During the third quarter, the Company repurchased approximately 300,000 shares of its common stock under its stock repurchase program for a total of approximately $20.0 million."

4:06PM Amazon.com beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (AMZN) 93.45 +0.03 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.45 per share, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.33; revenues rose 27.8% year/year to $5.45 bln vs the $5.03 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $8.12-9.12 vs. $8.11 bln consensus. AMZN sees Q4 operating income of $300-425 mln vs $372 mln consensus. Co said, "Kindle has become the #1 bestselling item by both unit sales and dollars - not just in our electronics store but across all product categories on Amazon.com. It's also the most wished for and the most gifted. We are grateful for and energized by this customer response... Earlier this week we began shipping the latest generation Kindle. Its 3G wireless works in the U.S. and 100 countries, and we've just lowered its price to $259."

7:36AM ITT Educational beats by $0.03, beats on revs (ESI) 110.43 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.00 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $1.97; revenues rose 33.5% year/year to $339.6 mln vs the $335.3 mln consensus.

7:35AM Celgene beats by $0.02, beats on revs (CELG) 54.58 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.56 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.54; revenues rose 16.8% year/year to $692 mln vs the $671.2 mln consensus. Co reports Q3 sales of Revlimid $450 mln vs. $429 mln consensus; Vidaza $103 mln vs. $108 mln consensus, Thalomid $110 mln vs. $102 mln consensus.

7:13AM Laboratory Corp beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides FY09 EPS above consensus (LH) 68.85 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.22 per share, $0.07 better thanthe First Call consensus of $1.15; revenues rose 4.4% year/year to $1.19 bln vs the $1.18 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $4.84-4.89 vs. $4.81 consensus; the Company expects revenue growth of approximately 4%, consensus 4.57%.

6:46AM J. Crew raises Q3 guidance above consensus (JCG) 37.74 : Co issues upside guidance for Q3 (Oct), sees EPS of $0.54-0.59 vs. $0.36 First Call consensus, prior guidance $0.30-0.33. The Company's third quarter fiscal 2009 expectations reflect a high single digit increase in comparable store sales; a low single digit increase in Direct sales; and a gross profit margin increase of approximately 500 basis points as compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2008 which was 41.6% of revenues. This compares to the Company's previous guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2009 of a mid-single digit decline in comparable store sales; a low to mid-single-digit decline in Direct sales; and a 100 basis point increase in gross profit margin.

6:36AM Dow Chemical beats by $0.14, beats on revs (DOW) 25.50 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.24 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the First Call consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 6.4% year/year to $12.05 bln vs the $11.85 bln consensus. Co said, "The economic outlook for the rest of 2009 appears to be stabilizing withstrong growth in Asia Pacific, especially China, and other emerging geographies. The global economy is now on firmer footing, and, in our view, the United States economy is beginning a slow and tenuous recovery, with unemployment continuing to be a drag on consumer spending. Therefore, our 2009/2010 operating plans do not count on material improvements in market conditions, and we remain tightly focused on those factors we can control, such as costs, capital and cash flow management. Dow has already begun to benefit from the smooth integration of Rohm and Haas and the decisive actions we took to accelerate our restructuring efforts and cost synergies. We have also made significant improvements to our balance sheet, strengthening our financial structure and providing more flexibility in how we execute any further divestitures, which will be made on a timely and strategic basis."

6:33AM Alexion Pharma beats by $0.08, beats on revs; raises non-GAAP EPS guidance and Soliris net product sales guidance (ALXN) 44.13 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.29 per share, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $0.21; revenues rose 34.1% year/year to $102.6 mln vs the $98.3 mln consensus. Full-year 2009 financial guidance for non-GAAP diluted earnings per share is being revised upward, from the previously announced range of $1.01 to $1.06, to a higher range of $1.15 to $1.18, not comaparable to the GAAP consensus of $0.76. Alexion is revising upward its previously announced guidance for worldwide Soliris net product sales, from a previous range of $368 to $378 million, now to a higher range of $383 to $385 million for the full-year 2009.

6:10AM Check Point Sftwr beats by $0.03, beats on revs (CHKP) 30.10 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.52 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.49; revenues rose 17.0% year/year to $233.6 mln vs the $230.7 mln consensus.

6:09AM Travelers beats by $0.30; raises FY09 EPS guidance (TRV) 48.02 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.61 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.30 better than the First Call consensus of $1.31. Co raises guidance for FY09, sees EPS of 5.30-5.50 vs. $5.28 consensus, up from previous guidance of $4.80-5.05. Book value for the quarter jumped 22% QoQ to $51.24 per share. The current quarter underwriting gain reflects a GAAP combined ratio, excluding net favorable prior year reserve development and catastrophe losses, of 92.5 percent, as compared to 91.8 percent in the prior year quarter. This increase of 0.7 points primarily resulted from reduced underwriting margins related to pricing and loss cost trends, higher non-catastrophe weather-related losses within Personal Insurance as well as the impact of the company's recently announced direct to consumer initiative. "These results were driven by underwriting profitability in each of our business segments and increased net investment income, as our non-fixed income portfolio yield improved to a positive level. "We were once again successful in achieving positive renewal rate changes across all of our business segments, although net written premiums were down modestly, largely attributable to declining economic activity in recent... With improved stability in the capital markets we deployed excess liquidity that we accumulated over the past several quarters. We repurchased $1 billion of common shares in the quarter in contrast to our past practice of reduced share repurchases during the catastrophe season. Given our strong earnings performance and cash position and more stable capital markets, we increased our regular quarterly dividend by 10 percent to $0.33 per share. In addition our Board of Directors has approved an additional $6.0 billion of common share repurchases."

6:08AM Potash beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus (POT)102.48 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.82 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.81; revenues fell 64.1% year/year to $1.1 bln vs the $1.04 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.65-0.85 vs. $1.18 consensus. N. American potash producer shipments improved from the previous quarter, but third-quarter volumes were still more than 50% below the same quarter in 2008 and year-to-date totals were nearly 70% lower than in the first nine months of last year. In July, India signed new contracts with global potash producers, which co believed would inspire buyer confidence in other markets. This failed to materialize, as potash buyers appeared to respond instead to their perception of market conditions and risks, including healthy producer inventories, lack of engagement by Chinese buyers and a late US harvest. Moreover, large inventory writedowns in nitrogen and phosphate taken by dealers over the past year limited the appetite for additional inventory risk. As a result, dealers and farmers continued to buy potash only on an as-needed basis, putting pressure on spot market pricing.In phosphate, US producer solid fertilizer domestic sales volumes moved closer to historical levels, while offshore volumes rose slightly as India continued to import significant quantities and shipments to Brazil increased in advance of its key planting season. In nitrogen, lower domestic natural gas costs allowed North American producers to be more competitive, contributing to a 24% decline in ammonia imports to the US compared to last year's third quarter. Lower winter wheat plantings and continued deferral by fertilizer buyers reduced urea demand and prices in the quarter. Co anticipates global potash demand in 2010 will approximate 50 million tonnes. Co now expects 2009 potash gross margin to fall within the range of $0.7-$0.9 billion and total shipments to be 3.0-3.2 million tonnes.With lower forecast potash volumes, POT now anticipates 2009 annual effective tax rate will be in the range of 10-12%, with the fourth quarter at approx 26-27%. Provincial mining and other taxes are forecast within a range of 3-4% of total potash gross margin in the year as a result of lower volumes and pricing.

3:10AM AU Optronics beats by $0.01, beats on revs (AUO) 9.82 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.26 per ADR, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.25; revenues rose 8.4% year/year to $3.5 bln vs the $3.21 bln consensus. Co reports operating margin of 6.8%.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Earnings - 21st Oct 2009

4:21PM Edwards Lifesci beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line; raises FY09 EPS guidance, sees revs above consensus (EW) 71.10 -0.53 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.71 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.70; revenues rose 7.3% year/year to $325.7 mln vs the $313.8 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.82-0.86, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.83 consensus. Co raises FY09 EPS guidance, issues upside FY09 rev guidance, sees EPS of $3.02-3.06, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.03 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $1.305-1.325 bln vs. $1.29 bln consensus. "In addition, Critical Care sales growth stepped up during the quarter. This quarter's results were also highlighted by strong international transcatheter valve sales growth and the recent approval of 2010 reimbursement in Germany. We also continued to make steady progress on U.S. approval and next generation systems. Underlying growth increased substantially from a first half rate of 2.0 percent, driven by strong sales from our FloTrac and pressure monitoring products."

4:15PM Amgen beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; guides FY09 EPS above consensus (AMGN) 59.40 +1.26 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.49 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.22 better than the First Call consensus of $1.27; revenues fell 1.6% year/year to $3.81 bln vs the $3.79 bln consensus. Co reported drug revs as follows: Enbrel $924 mln vs. $906 mln consensus; Neulasta $871 mln vs. $890 mln consensus; Aranesp $685 mln vs. $697 mln consensus; Epogen $663 mln vs. $645 mln consensus; Neupogen $339 mln vs. $327 mln. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $4.90-5.05 vs. $4.88 consensus; sees FY09 revs at the upper end of the $14.4-14.8 bln range vs. $14.7 bln consensus. The company still expects 2009 capital expenditures to be less than $600 mln. The company also announced that it has received a Complete Response Letter issued by the FDA for the BLA for Prolia in the treatment and prevention of bone loss due to hormone ablation therapy (HALT) in breast and prostate cancer patients. The Complete Response Letter on the Prolia HALT applications requested additional information regarding the safety of Prolia in patients with breast cancer receiving aromatase inhibitor therapy and patients with prostate cancer receiving androgen deprivation therapy. Specifically, the FDA has requested results from additional adequate and well-controlled clinical trials demonstrating that Prolia has no detrimental effects on either time-to-disease progression or overall survival.

4:09PM VMware beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (VMW) 44.93 +0.29 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.24 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.20; revenues rose 3.7% year/year to $489.8 mln vs the $474 mln consensus. VMW reports Q3 operating margin of 22.2% vs. 21.6% consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $540-560 vs. $523.00 mln consensus. Sees Q1 revs down sequentially (Q1 consensus is for $513 mln). "Our solid third quarter results were driven by strength in the US Federal sector, increased transaction volumes and particularly robust growth in our maintenance renewals... While the economic environment remains challenging, we have improved visibility into our business and believe that the next two quarters will follow seasonal patterns. We are planning fourth quarter revenues to be between $540 and $560 million, with the first quarter of 2010 down sequentially."

4:08PM Lam Research beats by $0.11, beats on revs (LRCX) 35.85 -1.15 : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.03 per share, $0.11 better thanthe First Call consensus of ($0.08); revenues rose 46.3% year/year to $318.5 mln vs the $287.5 mln consensus. Ongoing gross margin for the September 2009 quarter was $131.3 million or 41.2%, compared to ongoing gross margin of $67.8 million, or 31.1%, for the June 2009 quarter -- may not be comparable to 38.1% First Call consensus.

4:07PM Equinix beats by $0.17, beats on revs; guides FY09 revs above consensus (EQIX) 97.75 -0.44 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.47 per share, $0.17 better than the First Call consensus of $0.30; revenues rose 31.2% year/year to $227.6 mln vs the $224.1 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees FY09 revs of $875-880 mln vs. $871.98 mln consensus. Co says "Equinix delivered strong results in the third quarter, driven by solid demand and sound execution across all areas of the business... As we have continued our disciplined expansion strategy throughout the challenging macroeconomic climate of the past several quarters, we are well positioned to continue building upon our global market leadership position, and we continue to see a strong opportunity in front of us as the economy begins to recover." Capital expenditures in the third quarter were $88.7 mln, of which $14.7 mln was attributed to ongoing capital expenditures and $74.0 mln was attributed to expansion capital expenditures. Total year cash gross margins are expected to range between approximately 63% and 64%. Cash selling, general and administrative expenses are expected to be approx $160.0 mln. Adjusted EBITDA for the year is expected to be between $395.0 and $400.0 mln. Capital expenditures for 2009 are expected to be in the range of $390.0 to $400.0 mln, comprised of approx $60.0 mln of ongoing capital expenditures and $330.0 to $340.0 mln of expansion capital expenditures.

8:07AM Northrop Grumman beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus (NOC) 49.79 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.29 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the First Call consensus of $1.18; revenues rose 4.1% year/year to $8.73 bln vs the $8.58 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $5.00-5.15 vs. $4.85 consensus. Third quarter 2009 earnings included a net tax benefit of $75 million, or $0.23 per share, primarily for final settlement of the Internal Revenue Service's (IRS) examination of the company's 2001, 2002 and 2003 tax returns. In the third quarter of 2008 the company recognized net tax benefits totaling $21 million, or $0.06 per share.

8:05AM Freeport-McMoRan beats by $0.73, misses on revs; reinstates $0.60 per share annual dividend (FCX) 78.63 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.07 per share, $0.73 better than the First Call consensus of $1.34; revenues fell 10.2% year/year to $4.14 bln vs the $4.24 bln consensus. Consolidated sales from mines for third-quarter 2009 totaled 1.0 bln pounds of copper, 706 thousand ounces of gold and 16 mln pounds of molybdenum, compared with 1.0 bln pounds of copper, 307 thousand ounces of gold and 19 mln pounds of molybdenum for third-quarter 2008. Consolidated sales from mines for the year 2009 are expected to approximate 4.0 bln pounds of copper, 2.5 mln ounces of gold and 56 mln pounds of molybdenum, including 915 mln pounds of copper, 425 thousand ounces of gold and 14 mln pounds of molybdenumfor fourth-quarter 2009. Consolidated unit net cash costs (net of by-product credits and excluding Tenke Fungurume) averaged $0.50 per pound for third-quarter 2009, compared with $1.29 per pound for third-quarter 2008. Assuming average prices of $1,000 per ounce for gold and $10 per pound for molybdenum for the fourth quarter of 2009, consolidated unit net cash costs are estimated to average approximately $0.60 per pound for the year 2009. "Our third-quarter results reflect strong operating performance, high volumes from our Grasberg mine and improved commodity prices for our products - copper, gold and molybdenum. We are benefiting from improvements in our cost structure, particularly at our North America mines. We are positioned to pursue additional investments and growth opportunities within our existing asset base, when economies in the developed countries recover. Our strong performance in 2009 has enabled our Board to reinstate a cash dividend for our shareholders. We will continue to focus our cash flows on strengthening our balance sheet, investing in our future growth and providing cash returns to shareholders."

8:03AM Piper Jaffray beats by $0.07, beats on revs (PJC) 54.88 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.47 per share, $0.07 better than the First Call consensus of $0.40; revenues rose 62.8% year/year to $119.7 mln vs the $108.7 mln consensus.

7:34AM FLIR Systems beats by $0.03, beats on revs; anticipates FY09 EPS to be slightly above its recent outlook (FLIR) 28.95 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.38 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.35; revenues rose 3.2% year/year to $285.6 mln vs the $281.1 mln consensus. Backlog of firm orders for delivery within the next twelve months was approx $608 mln at September 30, 2009, an increase of $10 mln during the quarter. Backlog in the Government System's division was $487 mln, up $20 mln during the quarter due to strong U.S. demand. Backlog in the Commercial Vision Systems division was $93 mln, down $15 mln during the quarter due to a significant order cancellation resulting from a delay in project timing. Backlog in the Thermography division was $28 mln, up $5 mln during the quarter. Outlook: Based on the financial results for the quarter, and the outlook for the remainder of the year, co expects FY09 EPS to be slightly above the most recent outlook. Co also announces acquisition of OmniTech Partners for $42 mln in cash (immaterial to FLIR EPS in FY09 and FY10).

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Earnings - 20th Oct 2009

6:07PM Tupperware beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY10 EPS above consensus (TUP) 44.01 -0.26 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.54 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.42; revenues rose 0.2% year/year to $514 mln vs the $486.2 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $2.84-2.89 vs. $2.73 consensus; sees FY09 revs growth of 5-6%, which equates ~$2.27-2.29 bln vs. $2.06 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $3.33-3.43, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.20 consensus; co sees FY10 revs growth of 6-8% in local currency, and with a 6% benefit from foreign exchange is an increase of 12-14% reported.

4:34PM Cymer beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (CYMI) 38.85 -0.12 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.36 per share, $0.19 better than the First Call consensus of $0.17; revenues fell 16.5% year/year to $92.3 mln vs the $82.2 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs to be comparable to Q3 revs, which equates to ~92.3 mln vs. $90.62 mln consensus. Co said, "In Q3, we responded to increased demand that resulted in Q3revenue increasing almost 50%, as compared to the prior quarter. In Q4, we anticipate maintaining this increased level of demand for light sources and Installed Base Products."

4:33PM Walter Energy beats by $0.18, beats on revs (WLT) 65.87 -0.05 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.45 per share, $0.18 better than the First Call consensus of $0.27; revenues fell 9.9% year/year to $278.3 mln vs the $222.8 mln consensus.Co says "Our third quarter performance illustrates the strong demand for our high quality coking coal... We continue to see improving market conditions for our product and we are on track to achieve sales of approximately 3.5 mln tons in the second half. This performance supports our plan to produce and sell approximately 8 mln tons in 2010, with the startup of the Mine No. 7 East longwall in early January 2010." The Company expects to ship 126,000 tons of hard coking coal at 2008-2009 carryover pricing of approximately $315 per metric ton in the fourth quarter 2009. Coking coal production is expected to be between 1.4 and 1.5 mln tons in the fourth quarter, with production costs expected to average between $65 and $70 per ton. "We expect continued improvement in market conditions for the remainder of 2009, Moving into 2010, we are seeing increasing demand for premium mid- and low-vol coals from our key product destinations, as well as Asia, with port constraints in Australia continuing to make high-quality coking coals a scarce resource." Walter Coke is expecting improved sales and a return to profitability in the fourth quarter 2009, driven primarily by increased orders from the domestic steel industry. Capital expenditures were $14.9 mln in the third quarter, totaling $67.3 mln for the year. The Company expects full-year capital expenditures of approximately $85 mln. sales of approximately 3.5 mln tons in the second half. This performance supports our plan to produce and sell approximately 8 mln tons in 2010, with the startup of
the Mine No. 7 East longwall in early January 2010."

4:10PM Gilead Sciences beats by $0.11, beats on revs (GILD) 46.12 -0.69 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.78 per share, $0.11 better than the First Call consensus of $0.67; revenues rose 31.4% year/year to $1.8 bln vs the $1.75 bln consensus. 3Q Drug Sales and First Call Consensus: Truvada $620.6 mln vs. $625 mln consensus; $605.3 mln vs. $604 mln First Call Consensus; Viread $169.7 mln vs. $158 mln First Call Consensus; Amibsome $77.0 mln vs. $72 mln Consensus

4:09PM Seagate Tech beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus (STX) 15.55 +0.00 : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.58 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the First Call consensus of $0.47; revenues fell 12.2% year/year to $2.66 bln vs the $2.62 bln consensus. Seagate Tech reports gross margin 24.5% vs 23.3% consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $2.75-2.85 bln vs. $2.75 bln consensus. For the December quarter, the company is planning for the overall industry demand for disk drives to be 153-160 million units. Gross margin as a percent of revenue to be near the high end of the company's targeted range of 22-26% (consensus calls for 23.2%). During the first fiscal quarter, STX reduced short-term borrowings and long-term debt by approximately $465 mln primarily with the maturity of its $300 mln floating rate senior notes and by paying down its revolving credit facility by $150 mln. "At a time when economic conditions remained challenging we are very pleased with the company's financial performance, delivering strong revenues, margins and cash generation... The company has returned to its operating model well ahead of our expectations of six months ago and now expects to sustain gross margin of 22-26%. Although mission critical enterprise demand in particular has yet to recover to historical levels, we benefitted from our time-to-market product delivery to customers integrating our notebook, desktop and enterprise drives." While visibility has improved throughout the calendar year, the ongoing uncertainty in global economic conditions makes it difficult to predict product demand and other related matters, which makes it more likely that Seagate's actual results could differ materially from current expectations.

4:08PM Cree beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (CREE) 41.16 +0.05 : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.30 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $0.22; revenues rose 20.5% year/year to $169.1 mln vs the $164.5 mln consensus. Cree reports gross margin 43.6% vs 40% consensus and co guidance. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.28-0.30, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.23 consensus; sees Q2 revs of $180-190 mln vs. $173.18 mln consensus. Targeted non-GAAP earnings exclude expenses related to the amortization of acquired intangibles of $0.02 per diluted share, and stock-based compensation expense of $0.06 per diluted share. "We are benefitting from continued LED lighting adoption and high factory utilization and are well positioned for solid growth in Q2. As a result of the recent equity offering, we have the balance sheet to invest in the growth of our business as we look to continue to lead the LED lighting revolution."

4:08PM SanDisk beats by $0.49, beats on revs (SNDK) 21.47 +0.01 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.75 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.49 better than the First Call consensus of $0.26; revenues rose 13.8% year/year to $935.2 mln vs the $787.9 mln consensus. SanDisk reports gross margin 46.6% vs 31.3% consensus. Co says, "We are encouraged by improved industry fundamentals and our increasingly diversified global markets, which bode well for further growth in Q4 and in 2010."

8:12AM Peabody Energy beats by $0.26, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus (BTU) 43.37 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.49 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.26 better than the First Call consensus of $0.23; revenues rose 24.6% year/year to $1.67 bln vs the $1.42 bln consensus. Co issues raises/issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.60-1.80, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.48 consensus; co also raises FY09 EBITDA guidance to $1.2-1.3 bln vs the $1.14 bln consensus. Given the high rate of deliveries to satisfy U.S. customer commitments, the co is targeting '09 sales of approximately 190 mln tons in the United States and 21-23 mln tons in Australia. Total co sales are expected to be 235-245 mln tons, including Trading and Brokerage contributions. For 2010, growing demand in the Pacific is driving higher Australia sales projections of 24 to 27 mln tons, or 15% above 2009's targets, with minimal capital required. In the United States, BTU is targeting '10 volumes of 185 to 195 mln tons, in line with '09's expectations and 5-15 mln tons lower than 2008. Peabody's 2010 PRB volumes are expected to decline up to another 5 mln tons from 2009's estimated 138 mln tons, and approximately 20-25 mln tons below peak operating levels in late 2008. Third quarter 2009 sales volumes totaled 63.5 mln tons, compared with 65.6 mln tons in the prior year period. U.S. sales reflect planned Powder River Basin (PRB) reductions. Australia sales of 6.5 mln tons were 30% above the second quarter due to higher seaborne thermal volumes and record metallurgical coal shipments. Australian metallurgical coal exports were 2.7 mln tons, nearly triple the pace of 1H09. U.S. revenues per ton increased 11% over the third quarter of last year due to higher realized prices in both the Midwestern and Western regions. Peabody's third quarter realized revs for Australia averaged $82 per ton, including $125 per ton for seaborne metallurgical coal and $72 per ton for seaborne thermal coal. Compared with the second quarter of 2009, Australian realized prices increased 33% due to a larger mix of seaborne metallurgical coal. 3Q09's Australian revs per ton were below year-ago levels due to lower annual pricing for seaborne coal contracts that began April 1.

8:04AM Precision Castparts misses by $0.09, misses on revs (PCP) 104.72 : Reports Q2 (Sep) earnings of $1.54 per share, $0.09 worse than the First Call consensus of $1.63; revenues fell 27.6% year/year to $1.3 bln vs the $1.39 bln consensus. "From a top-line perspective, overall sales declines seem to be bottoming out in the second quarter. Aerospace destocking is slowing, and our schedules show that we are closing the gap between orders and aircraft build rates. A gradual ramp begins in the third quarter, although some of our customers appear to be holding off orders as they approach their fiscal year ends. By the fourth quarter, we start to see schedules firming up and aligning more closely with current aircraft build rates beginning in March and carrying through the first quarter of fiscal 2011 and beyond. In addition, oil and gas and chemical processing orders are getting some traction and showing gradual sales upside in the third and fourth fiscal quarters. As sales increase, we have every expectation of driving those volumes across our improved cost structure and of aggressively leveraging every opportunity for upside performance."

8:02AM Cirrus Logic beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs above consensus (CRUS) 5.86 : Reports Q2 (Sep) earnings of $0.11 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 4.5% year/year to $55.7 mln vs the $55.7 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $58-62 mln vs. $53.96 mln consensus. Gross margin is expected to be between 52 percent and 54 percent; and combined R&D and SG&A expenses are expected to range between $23 million and $25 million, which include approximately $2 million in share-based compensation and amortization of acquisition-related intangibles expenses. Gross margin for the quarter was 52 percent, down from 56 percent in the quarter a year ago and flat compared to 52 percent reported for the previous quarter.

7:38AM Caterpillar beats by $0.58, misses on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus; guides FY10 revs in-line (CAT) 57.85 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.64 per share, $0.58 better than the First Call consensus of $0.06, revenues fell 44% YoY to $7.3 bln vs $7.47 bln First Call consensus. Co issues guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.85-2.05 vs. $1.49 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $32-33 bln vs. $33.07 bln consensus. Co sees FY10 revs up 10-25% from midpoint of FY09 guidance; equates to ~$35.75-40.625 bln vs $33.14 bln First Call consensus, in part driven by the end of dealer inventory reductions which significantly impacted sales in 2009. "We are pleased with this quarter's profit given the severe economic environment and with our sales well below end-user demand as dealers continue to aggressively draw down inventories... During the quarter, our primary focus continued to be on trough management and operational execution. We lowered production as dealers continued to cut inventories, we reduced costs, maintained positive price realization, lowered inventory, delivered positive operating cash flow and improved our financial position... We believe the third quarter marked the low point for Caterpillar sales and revenues in what has been the toughest recession since the 1930s. We are seeing encouraging signs that indicate a recovery may be underway... However, the world economy is still facing significant challenges. There is uncertainty about the timing and strength of recovery... While 2010 will still be a difficult year, we expect improvement in our top line from the lows of 2009, and it's critical that we manage on the way up as well as we did in the face of declining volume. As a result, we've already started planning for an upturn. When it comes, it can come quickly, and we, our dealers and our suppliers will be prepared"

7:37AM BlackRock beats by $0.17, beats on revs (BLK) 230.43 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.10 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.17 better than the First Call consensus of $1.93; revenues fell 13.2% year/year to $1.14 bln vs the $1.13 bln consensus. Third quarter new business results reflected increasing demand for higher return investments, driving net inflows of $14.5 bln in equities, balanced, fixed income and alternative investments, and net outflows of $26.4 bln in cash management. "Improving investor sentiment was the most important factor in third quarter results. Clients are putting money back to work in the markets, driving inflows in equities and bonds, and outflows in money market funds industry-wide. This shift drove the rally in global stocks and tighter credit spreads, as well as a favorable revenue mix in net new business. Assets under management increased $61.6 bln to $1.435 trln at September 30, 2009. Net new business in long-dated investment products totaled $14.5 bln. In contrast, net outflows in cash management were $26.4 bln and distributions from advisory accounts totaled $4.6 bln. BlackRock Solutions business remained strong, with seven net new assignments added during the quarter. Year-over-year, AUM has increased $176.2 bln or 14%, including net new business of $133.4 bln, and BlackRock Solutions has added 56 net new assignments. Our pipeline of wins funded or to be funded totaled $42.5 bln as of October 15, 2009. "The BGI transaction remains on target for a December 1, 2009 closing."

7:03AM Pfizer beats by $0.03, beats on revs; raises FY09 guidance above consensus (PFE) 17.98 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.51 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.48; revenues fell 2.9% year/year to $11.62 bln vs the $11.41 bln consensus. Co raises guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $2.00-2.05 vs. $1.98 consensus, prior guidance $1.90-2.00; sees FY09 revs of $49-50 bln vs. $48.43 bln consensus, prior guidance $45-46 bln. Co said, "During the first nine months of 2009, we have continued to deliver on our 2009 financial commitments and our longer-term cost-reduction target. Completion of both the Wyeth acquisition and associated integration plans is a testament to the hard work and dedication of talented colleagues throughout the organization. Looking ahead, we anticipate that our broad portfolio of products and increased investment in high-growth opportunities will better position us to generate consistent earnings growth and continue to deliver on our commitments."

6:18AM Lexmark beats by $0.20, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus (LXK) 22.57 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.65 per share which excludes $0.52 per share for restructuring-related activities which includes $0.34 per share for additional restructuring charges the co is announcing today, $0.20 better than the First Call consensus of $0.45; revenues fell 15.3% year/year to $958 mln vs the $901.3 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.50-$0.60 vs. $0.47 consensus. The co also announces additional restructuring initiatives designed to streamline its world-wide organization to improve operating efficiencies and effectiveness. This October 2009 plan includes reductions primarily in the areas of manufacturing and supply chain, service delivery overhead, marketing and sales support, corporate overhead, and development. The company expects these actions to be principally complete by the end of the first quarter of 2011. These October 2009 actions are expected to impact about 825 positions worldwide and will result in total pre-tax charges of approximately $120 mln with approximately $33 mln incurred in the third quarter of 2009. Lexmark expects these October 2009 actions will generate savings of approximately $70 mln in 2010 and ongoing savings of $110 mln beginning in 2011 with approximately 60% impacting operating expense and 40%impacting cost of goods sold.

1:38AM Allegiant Travel beats by $0.05, beats on revs (ALGT) 39.63 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.68 per share, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of $0.63; revenues rose 13.9% year/year to $133.1 mln vs the $130.5 mln consensus. "Cost per passenger excluding fuel declined to $50.31 in the third quarter from $53.33 in the prior year, which understates the improvement since system load factor was 3.8% lower than last year. Please note these figures include bonus accrual, which has increased significantly in 2009 since it is tied to profitability and therefore further disguises underlying cost improvement. Excluding bonus accrual, cost per passenger excluding fuel declined to $4." Co reports load factor in 3Q of 89.9% 93.8% in 3Q08.