Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Earnings - 18th June 2008

6:30PM USANA raises Q2 EPS and revs above consensus (USNA) 25.99 +0.05 : Co raises Q2 EPS to $0.60-0.63 vs $ 0.48 consensus, up from $0.48-0.51; raises revs to $107-109 mln vs $103.9 consensus, up from $103-106 mln. Co says "the higher than expected net sales increase can primarily be attributed to better than expected results from promotional and incentive programs offered during Q2. The success of these programs has boosted results in both the North America and Asia Pacific regions. The expected increase to EPS is primarily due to higher than expected sales and decreased Selling General and Administrative expense."

5:02PM John Wiley reports Q4 EPS and revs above consensus (JW.A) 46.79 -0.15 : JW.A reports Q4 EPS of $0.49 vs $0.35 First Call consensus and revs of $433 mln vs $427.14 mln First Call consensus. On the Higher Education segment, online sales directly to students grew significantly during the year. Blackwell Q4 revs increased to $138 million from $106 million in the same period of the previous year. The improvement was principally driven by increased subscription revenue and higher backfile sales.

4:13PM Coventry Health Care issues quarterly and full year 2008 guidance well below consensus (CVH) 40.00 -0.97 : Co gives 2008 guidance below consensus, now sees sees Q2 EPS of $0.55-0.57 vs $1.04 First Call consensus. Sees Q3 EPS of $1.05-1.09 vs $1.22 First Call consensus. Co now sees FY08 EPS of $3.65-3.75 vs $4.43 First Call consensus, down from $4.44 prior guidance; sees FY08 consolidated revs of $11.8-12.045 bln vs $12.31 bln First Call consensus. Based upon a review of each line of business, the co has observed and quantified the following developments contributing to the revised expectations and guidance: 1) Medicare Advantage Medical Loss Ratio (M.L.R.): The co expects the 2008 Medicare Advantage medical loss ratio to be between 85.5% and 85.9%, an increase of approximately 300 to 340 bps from the Company's prior estimate. The driver of this change is the Company's Medicare Advantage Private Fee-for-Service business. The Company has received a much higher than expected level of PFFS claims related to prior periods, which is inconsistent with claims submission patterns of network-based Medicare Advantage products... 2) Commercial Group Risk M.L.R.: The commercial group risk M.L.R. is being pressured by higher than expected levels of outpatient utilization and, to a lesser extent, a higher than expected inpatient unit cost trend caused by an increased severity level of facility claims. The Company's revised 2008 health plan commercial group risk M.L.R. forecast is approximately 80.3% versus previous guidance of approximately 78.8%... 3) Other Modifications: The co is revising its revenue outlook from a midpoint of 23.9% growth over the prior year to a midpoint of 20.7%. The reduction in risk revenue guidance is primarily driven by the full year outlook on commercial group risk membership which is expected to be down by approximately 4.0% from prior year (although slightly up for the remainder of 2008 as compared to Q108), and an anticipation of Medicare Advantage membership growth in 2008 of approximately 90,000 members compared to a previous forecast for growth of 100,000 members. "We have implemented corrective actions that we anticipate will put us back on an acceptable EPS growth path for 2009 and beyond."

4:05PM Casella Waste beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY09 revs above consensus (CWST) 12.09 -0.42 : Reports Q4 (Apr) loss of $0.18 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.22); revenues rose 10.2% year/year to $139.6 mln vs the $137.7 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees FY09 revs of $610-628 mln vs. $605.67 mln consensus.

8:33AM General Mills guides Q4 & FY08 above consensus; guides FY09 in-line (GIS) 60.73 : Co issues upside guidance for Q4 (May), sees EPS of $0.73 vs. $0.68 First Call consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY08 (May), sees EPS of $3.52 vs. $3.48 consensus; sees FY08 (May) revs of $13.7 bln vs. $13.44 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY09 (May), sees EPS of $3.78-3.83 vs. $3.81 consensus.

7:58AM FedEx misses by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; guides FY09 EPS below consensus (FDX) 84.33 : Reports Q4 (May) earnings of $1.45 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 worse than the First Call consensus of $1.47; revenues rose 7.8% year/year to $9.87 bln vs the $9.6 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.80-1.00 vs. $1.27 consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $4.75-5.25 vs. $5.92 consensus. This guidance incorporates the current high fuel prices and the related impact on fuel surcharges, which are reducing demand for FedEx services and impacting yield across the company's transportation segments. This outlook assumes no additional increases to current fuel prices and no further weakening in the economy. Co said, "The operating environment for fiscal 2009 is expected to be very difficult due to the weak U.S. economy and extremely high fuel prices.. However, we will focus on reducing expenses and remaining cash flow positive, and will continue to take positive steps to improve the customer experience across our portfolio of services."

7:32AM Somanetics beats by $0.05, beats on revs; reaffirms FY08 guidance (SMTS) 20.55 : Reports Q2 (May) earnings of $0.21 per share, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of $0.16; revenues rose 39.3% year/year to $12.7 mln vs the $11 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY08, sees FY08 revs of $46.2-50 mln vs. $45.79 mln consensus; reaffirms Income before income taxes in the range of $15.3-17.5 mln.

Canadian Solar raises revenue forecast (CSIQ 47.00, +4.54, +10.7%) on Tuesday raised its 2008 revenue forecast to a range of $750 million to $870 million, from its previous view of $650 million to $750 million. The Jiangsu, China-based solar panel manufacturer cited sales of its e-Module products, which will be realized in the second half of the year, for the increase. Shares of Canadian Solar closed Monday at $42.46.

12:00AM Panera Bread raises Q208 PES guidance (PNRA) 45.56 : Co issues upside guidance for Q2 (Jun), sees EPS of $0.48-0.50 vs. $0.42 First Call consensus. The increase is driven by projected co-owned comparable bakery-cafe sales growth of 6.1% to 6.4% (versus its previously targeted range of 5% to 6%), and better than expected margin improvement on higher growth in gross profit per transaction. Panera also announces that with the continuing rise in gasoline prices, they expect an incremental $(0.02) to $(0.03) per diluted share of negative impact on the previously announced EPS target range for 2H08.

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