Earnings - 10th Dec 2008

5:19PM NCI Building Sys reports Q4; co expects to report a modest loss for Q1 of fiscal 2009 (NCS) 14.60 +0.11 : Reports Q4 (Nov) earnings of $1.26 per share, includes a charge for cost of goods sold related to an inventory write-down and other charges, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of $1.12; revenues rose 9.8% year/year to $508.9 mln vs the $490.1 mln consensus. Co says, "A combination of cost reduction initiatives taken from late October through mid-November, which included an ~20% reduction in NCI's workforce as well as four plant closings, are expected to result in annualized cost savings of approximately $34 million. The co will incur charges of ~$3.0 mln in Q1 of FY09 related to severance and plant closing costs... The seasonality that historically affects our Q1 results will be exacerbated in FY09 by the continued impact of the economic downturn on our markets and order push-outs in anticipation of steel price reductions. Based upon current projections of an ~40% sequential decline in volume of tonnage shipped, we expect to report a modest loss for Q1 of FY09, exclusive of special charges. EBITDA and cash flow from operations, however, is expected to be positive, benefiting from the shift in seasonality that occurred in fiscal 2008 as well as lower steel prices.

4:52PM Greif beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS below consensus (GEF) 29.60 +0.32 : Reports Q4 (Oct) earnings of $1.27 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $1.15; revenues rose 10.9% year/year to $978.4 mln vs the $956.6 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $3.25-3.75, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $4.40 consensus. Co says, "Accelerated GBS initiatives are being implemented in response to the current business environment. These initiatives include continuation of active portfolio management (e.g., 15 announced facility closings in fiscal 2008), further administrative excellence activities, a hiring and salary freeze, and curtailed discretionary spending. These actions are expected to result in an additional $50 mln of savings during fiscal 2009. The GBS and accelerated GBS initiatives are anticipated to result in a combined impact of ~$100 mln on operating profit during FY09."

3:45PM JA Solar lowers Q4 guidance, sees Q4 revs of ~$124 mln, down from $$\191.5-20.9 mln, vs $231 mln consensus (JASO) 2.94 -0.06 : Guidance for gross margin to be in the range of 5 to 7% and non-GAAP earnings per ADS to be approximately break-even remains the same. Co's target for total production output has been updated to be in the range of 250-260MW for 2008, from its earlier guidance of 310MW for 2008. The nameplate annual production guidance remains at 600MW for the end of this year. "Over the past few weeks, we have seen a dramatic slowdown in orders, which we believe is related to macro economic conditions. We remain positive about JA Solar's overall competitive position, and continue to expect profitable growth in 2009."

2:50PM Terra Nitrogen also pops as Cramer on CNBC says TNH is his favorite fertilizer stock, primarily because of its dividend (TNH) 98.88 +6.16 :

8:44AM Actuant lowers fiscal 2009 sales and earnings guidance (ATU) 15.78 : Co sees Q1 EPS of $0.44-$0.45 vs $0.48 consensus; sees revs of $375-$380 mln vs $412.9 mln consensus. The co sees FY09 EPS of $1.60-$1.80 vs $2.11 consensus; sees revs of $1.5-$1.55 bln vs $1.69 bln. "Over the past several months and particularly in November and December, we have seen business conditions worsen, driven by the global credit crisis and plunging consumer confidence. While we expected continued weakness in consumer facing businesses serving the DIY electrical, marine and recreational vehicle markets, we did not anticipate the magnitude and speed of the decline in these markets. We're also experiencing substantially weaker demand in the truck, automotive and off-road equipment markets, including Europe. In addition, our previous fiscal 2009 guidance was based on a US Dollar/Euro exchange rate of $1.45. With almost half of Actuant's revenue generated in Europe, the translation impact alone of the strengthening US Dollar, versus our prior guidance assumption, caused an approximate $80 mln reduction in forecasted fiscal 2009 sales. In response to these new developments, we have accelerated actions to reduce our cost structure, including additional facility consolidations and certain workforce reductions. These actions will result in severance and other restructuring costs of $10 to $15 mln during the balance of the year that were not previously included in our forecasted results."

1:22AM Agrium curtails production, provides guidance update (AGU) 27.49 : Co announces that it has shut-in production at its Fort Saskatchewan nitrogen facility and has further curtailed production at other major nitrogen and phosphate plants in N. America. The temporary curtailments are necessary due to a significant build in N. American fertilizer inventories and declining available storage capacity. Co comments that global nutrient and crop prices have weakened since early November when second half guidance was issued and deferral of wholesale nutrient purchases has been significant. This has resulted in further sales volume reductions and production curtailments that will affect earnings contributions from their Wholesale business unit. "The late North American harvest, coupled with credit restrictions from international buyers and continued market uncertainties arising from reductions in global crop and nutrient prices, has impacted fall nutrient applications" said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO. "We believe grain fundamentals are stronger than current prices would indicate and that global food demand is unlikely to be significantly affected by a slower global economic environment. Unprecedented reductions in fertilizer use this fall in both North America and globally has resulted in significant production curtailments and shutdowns and is expected to place extreme pressure on an already strained distribution system next spring. It is unclear whether distribution systems, particularly in North America, will be sufficient to meet spring demand; however, we anticipate that this will highlight the benefits of Agrium's extensive distribution network. Additionally, any reductions in crop inputs or seeded acreage will only put more upward pressure on crop prices and crop input demand in the future." Agrium reaffirms that it expects earnings for 2H08 to be within a guidance range of $3.30 to $4.00 per share. Reduced wholesale volumes and pricing and expected inventory valuation adjustments in our wholesale purchase for resale business could reduce results from operations by as much as 15% below the low end of the guidance range. This reduction is anticipated to be offset by non-cash gains relating to our foreign currency denominated working capital position.