Monday, October 11, 2010

Dilemma - everything makes sense in retrospect

We are at a classic stage, which I am sure if I were to look in retrospect a month from now, will be very easy to read but as of now, i.e., in current time and day, it is not so clear. Let me explain what my dilemma is - if one looks at the action lately, it looks choppy. The market appears to be overbought, is acting like it is overbought (based on market action, # of stocks above 50D EMA and candlestick patterns). However, if one looks at $NASI, $NAMO, and the MOSC indicators - all of them suggest that there is still some room left for the bull to take the prices up before the market is fully overbought. On the same token, one can interpret that the market has overcome its recent resistance and has entered into a no-resistance zone until $SPX sees 1210 (almost 50 points from here) but then there is a divergence in the price action and $NYHL - suggesting that the breadth is a tad weaker. Lastly, $VIX overreacted to the downside today and $USD looks ready to bounce... FXY looks toppy suggesting dollar may rally but then Tokyo has to rally in sympathy as well... Contrarily, FXE looks toppy suggesting that the correction in commodities & precious metals is not far from us. So how shall one interpret this? Does one say that the breath($NYHL) is likely to improve as we see the prices test previous highs OR that the market prices are already past the resistance on weaker breadth and is ready to go south? One month from now, its going to be real easy to see this and agree with either scenario because it will all be after the fact. Until then though, we wait for confirmation and avoid getting burnt!