Dubai it is... I was wondering if it was gonna be Greece!

It is a calm morning. I woke up a little late than usual since the "New Moon" saga lasted until 1AM last night with my wife. As usual, I grabbed my cereal bowl and made my way straight to my office to read the financial news and take a gauge on global markets. The first thing I read is all about Dubai being on thin ice financially. Wow! Until 2 days ago, there was nothing about Dubai in media and today that city-state is in dire straights all o a sudden? WoW! I figured we needed some catalyst, just something to roll over and I was hoping that it was either going to be Jamie replacing Timmy OR Greece defaulting on its debt.. But no, it turned out to be Dubai... I will take it anyway for a healthy, I mean 20% correction towards the 200EMAs...

I lost on some trades and got stopped out of my shorts yesterday because the market just showed crazy behavior on thin volume... not surprising, but still unsual... The dollar tanked, EUR and YEN popped higher like nobody's business and Gold is on steroids everyday lately, nothing new there.

Now, going into Friday and next week, I am happy that the uncertainty is KILLED! Bulltards are dead!!! Bears will rule the markets for a while( at least 2-3 weeks) now!!!

A fresh hunt for possible short candidates starts right now...

Cheers......

Here we go....

It seems like today is the day we've been waiting for... Dollar will strengthen ... bearish Oil report will cause that or vice versa... and we will need to see the stocks that raised their estimates higher this morning, e.g., XLNX, GIS etc. close in red... Besides, $VIX didn't close below 23, so we have a clear stop-loss if the thesis doesnt play out....

Cheers..

A gap up and close in red would be ideal...

Waiting for something like that to happen... is it this coming week that we form a intermediate top? Or is it the next one? I think it is this week for sure. The scenario may not play out just like what I have described in the title of the post but who knows it may be the Fed meeting that may cause a close in red and that may still be OK... lets see how this week unfolds....

Hold on to your horses bears..... we are going to get a chance to get fat again before the winter hibernation!!!

This is what I was waiting for...Cramer says....

“We know the pullbacks in this market are shallow,” Cramer said. “So I think it’s wrong to worry about a tidal wave sell-off capsizing this thing.” --- Source CNBC

No need to worry, the pullbacks are shallow, buy the dips and there should be no worry about a sell-off. This is exactly what I was waiting for. Now I feel more comfortable being short. :).

Lets see how it goes.

Today or sometime next week will mark as a top!

Some insider selling is witnessed in AMZN, MHS, STEC and looking at the tired nature of good-earning stocks and junk flying to moon, its obvious that this is not going to last long at all ... this party should be over in the next week or so.. Time to add to the existing short (painful positions) and keep adding atleast until we see a close above 1050 on $SPX, which is my stop loss point. A reversal today and a close near the lows or red would be very encouraging!

Approaching the near term top!!

Parabolic moves like these useless stocks is a typical indication that we are not far from the near-term top. There are tons and tons of stocks that have made parabolic moves like DDRX and that is just  NOT sustainable. Besides, take a look at $NASI, $NYSI, $NYA50R etc. and all of the technical indicators are screaming an extrememly overbought market. I would keep my eye on $VIX to spike to confirm rising fear/panic in the market so that all the people in bullish "green shoots" camp have to think twice about their opinions! 

Upcoming catalyst on May 4th: Stress Test results. "Buy the rumor, Sell the news" reaction is expected!! 

Long Puts : QAVRF, XLYRV, PXDRD , QAVQE