Friday, February 6, 2009

The Key catalyst now is the Stimulus plan next week!!

So, I am eating some crow lately, especially this morning!!  :). But, I am hanging on to my positions. Although we broke out of the bearish wedge pattern on SP500 to the upside, I think we will rally until we kiss the 50EMA and then will come the sell off (enter mega short at SPY = 87.61). If we break above that, I will be stopped out of all my positions. 

For today, these could be the two scenarios - Scenario 1: Since we started all excited this morning, traders may become nervous to be long when there is so much uncertainty next week. This may cause a reversal around 3PM. Scenario 2: If they do keep buying and if we do end up big on the positive side, the stimulus announcement will cause a sell-off (buy the rumour, sell the news trade). Lets see how the day progresses and I will make adjustments as either of the scenario unfolds. Meantime, just sit back, relax and watch the game. 

Pankaj

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