Out of STEC, ENER calls, entered NDAQ calls

Since the market gods granted my wish by going higher yesterday and today (at least the ones I owned, i.e., ENER, STEC), I am going to cash in my positions and enter into a better Risk-reward longs... I am long NDAQ call spread, long SRS call spread (hedge), long UNG call spread... I think we may continue rally even after the FOMC tommorow and may be the Friday's report will bring everything crashing down.. No one can say what exactly will be the path downwards but I feel that we eventually will resume to the downside and any pop to test 1100 on $SPX will be a gift from heavens...Chances are that we are going to see $SPX test 1100 sooner than I thought we would.... I am going to be positioned long in the meantime and will wait for FOMC announcement tomorrow before jumping full in, mostly on the long side (hopefully)... If we tank tomorrow (less likely), I will cash out and wait for the dust to clear and look for signals then to enter either short or long depending on what the $DXY does after the FOMC announcement.

PS: I think STEC could pop higher on earnings today but am not going to gamble on it.. I got the pop that I was looking for and am now happy with whatever I could get in profits.. :)

EDIT: 5PM: Lucky I was out of STEC calls... the POS stock is trading $7 down after hours on not-so-great guidance(soft revenue)! Its Massoud playing AAPL thinking he would sandbag earnings by guiding low but he forgot that AAPL ACTUALLY beats the low-guided earnings heftily and consistently... Phew!

AMZN - Jeff Bezos is selling it - Should you?

Jeff Bezos has been selling his shares in AMZN since Feb 15.  Does this signal that the best is over for AMZN in the near term or did he really need the money to buy a toothbrush? 

Pankaj

PCL - Ready to creak?

PCL is kissing its long term trendline from below. Options on this one are not liquid, the bid/ask gap is not favorable. I would sell 100 shares short here with a stop loss price of $38. Target exit - $32. 

Short Ideas

CSTR 

Long - QLRSF  - July 30 Put Contract @ 1.1/Contract 

Target exit - 2/Contract

Stop Loss - 0.5/Contract

AZO 

Long - 2 AZOUF - Sept 130 Put - @ 5/Contract

Short - 2 AZOUD - Sept 120 Put - @ 3.3/Contract 

Or Play the 150/140 Bear Put Spread. 

Target Exit - AZO touches 145

Stop Loss - Azo closes above 171 

NOTE: Please do your own due diligence before putting your trades/money in market. These trade ideas are for my record purpose only and not for recommendation to the general public. 

PCLN - Ideal Rising Wedge & Shooting Star!

PCLN is rising steadily in a rising wedge pattern, which is considered bearish in terms of technical analysis. Moreover, in terms of candlestick pattern studies, today's close is an ideal example of a shooting star pattern, which indicates tremendous supply.

Both these are bearish from technical POV but fundamentals of PCLN are sound. However, given that more than one technical indicators are bearish, I would consider this trade as a relatively safe one. I am looking forward to take a short position in PCLN tommorow.

Buy - PUZRR for $5/contract

Target Exit - $8/contract

Stop Loss: $4/Contract

Other short Ideas - GWW, PVH, SPH, ITC, ..... More to come later...MA GMCR GOOG(other shooting star)

Approaching the near term top!!

Parabolic moves like these useless stocks is a typical indication that we are not far from the near-term top. There are tons and tons of stocks that have made parabolic moves like DDRX and that is just  NOT sustainable. Besides, take a look at $NASI, $NYSI, $NYA50R etc. and all of the technical indicators are screaming an extrememly overbought market. I would keep my eye on $VIX to spike to confirm rising fear/panic in the market so that all the people in bullish "green shoots" camp have to think twice about their opinions! 

Upcoming catalyst on May 4th: Stress Test results. "Buy the rumor, Sell the news" reaction is expected!! 

Long Puts : QAVRF, XLYRV, PXDRD , QAVQE

Heading South?

Today was good, locked in some profits on RTH puts and $NDX puts...If we open higher tomorrow on TXN news, it will be a good entry on the short side. We need to pull back below 50DEMAs on $spx and that will confirm the downward pressure for sure. Meantime, I am playing it safe on both sides, e.g., I bought long dated calls on SUN and FRO today... Good question - Why SUN and FRO? ....I believe that Oil and Nat. Gas is done going down... no matter how bad the weekly inventory reports come, the price is holding up. So, by mid-summer, I believe that money will definitely flow from Financials and RTH into Energy again. I also bought some GMXR in my IRA account. I am building energy positions in small increments, and if the stocks that I mentioned come in more, I will buy more to average down my entry point.

Time to go short heavy!!

I am not painting another 2008 v.20 crash again like some bloggers out there but a healthy sized pullabck s coming our way. 90% of stocks trading the big board are above their 50EMA and this is good enough indicator that is signalling to me that a pullback is imminent. I accumulated some put contracts on Indices and RTH and if the market continues its grind above, I am going to add more to my position. 

 more later... 

Placing Bets against market now!

After FOMC, Treasuries are flying, markets are flying, gold is flying. I am sure though that the only thing that deserves to fly short term is treasuries! So market is bound to reverse yet again (up 150 right now) and close in red today - that would be awesome! Lets see! I am short HUGE - 50 Contracts on SPX and 40 on other equities!!

Update: 3:53 PM - The market held on so far - so I covered my 50contracts with a small profit. It seems we rally tommorow and then close down big on Friday.

Must close in RED today!!

We need to close in RED today across the board. With FOMC coming tommorow, this is a good day to take profits for the traders, and they will do that towards the end of the day.

The technicals are suggesting that the rally is overextended and needs a breakdown atleast to test the 740 area on $SPX.

Update after close: Seems Market is going to test 810 on $SPX after retracing somewhat tommorow morning. If we get a panicky sell-off tommorow after FOMC (a little unlikely scenario but you never know), then we go right back down to test 740. In midst of so much going on daily at Washington and Ben's 60 min. interview, I think that markets may stabalize a bit until mid-summer and then we will see a big sell-off depending the earnings and outlooks are dismal again. If not, $spx at 670 on March 6th may be the bottom that we may look back upon.

Reasons for my post earlier calling $spx to be at 600!!

I just saw this article today... Click here.. I had a post in January calling for $SPX to test $750 or even $600 and I still believe that by the year end, we will see these numbers on charts unless you believe in miracles or Washington (I am still skeptical that Washington can fix this mess completely or quickly). 

One more thing that's going to happen for sure - the  huge amounts of money that the fed is printing these days, it will somehow flood the markets at some point in future. When that happens, it will inflate everything (corporate earnings included) and gold will officially rally like crazy (potentially upto $2000/oz), unlike the current fake breakout from the penant formation. (click here for more info.)

I wish I could accurately time the coming fall in markets and rise in gold prices. 

Pankaj

The Key catalyst now is the Stimulus plan next week!!

So, I am eating some crow lately, especially this morning!!  :). But, I am hanging on to my positions. Although we broke out of the bearish wedge pattern on SP500 to the upside, I think we will rally until we kiss the 50EMA and then will come the sell off (enter mega short at SPY = 87.61). If we break above that, I will be stopped out of all my positions. 

For today, these could be the two scenarios - Scenario 1: Since we started all excited this morning, traders may become nervous to be long when there is so much uncertainty next week. This may cause a reversal around 3PM. Scenario 2: If they do keep buying and if we do end up big on the positive side, the stimulus announcement will cause a sell-off (buy the rumour, sell the news trade). Lets see how the day progresses and I will make adjustments as either of the scenario unfolds. Meantime, just sit back, relax and watch the game. 

Pankaj

Shorting heavily going into the close!!

Alright, I am taking the contrary trade!! The CNBC anchors are all excited and are pointing out how POT, AAPL, GOOG and RIMM are making multi-month highs and how BAC had its capitualtion today! The good news doesn't end there. There is a big stimulus coming next week, Chris Dodd is saying that BAC is not going to be nationalized and Goldman is saying that they intend to give the TARP money back ASAP. 

Wow!! Fascinating stuff!! I am sold that all things are going to get better, starting today! The problems are just going to go away by all these actions!! 

My trades - 

Short CWT, ABC(ABCOG -Mar 35 put), AEM (AEMOI, Mar 45 put), JACK, CMP(CMPNK, Feb 55 put), AMZN(ZQNNK- Feb 55 put) & LANC(LQSRG, Jun 35 put). 

My other short orders that didnt get filled - COCO CEPH ITMN NFLX 

My long orders that didnt get filled - DBC 

Lets see how my portfolio does tommorow. Remember, all the bad news is baked in the market and the market is soooooo ready to go higher!! :). 

Pankaj

Shorting Opportunity!!!

Today the market gapped up but I see NO catalyst that could be positive to push this bear market any higher. I may be completely wrong but I am shorting this market at this point (2:06PM EST) with a tight stop if in case the market continues its climb after the release of fed meeting minutes. 

Pankaj

S&P500 at $750 or even $600 is in the cards... It'll be time to go very short very soon!!

If my analysis serves me well(looking at $NASI etc.), we will rally this week and may be the next to touch the 50EMA on $spx one more time and at that time, I will go very short - shortest I can ever be!!!  In regards to the well-known stocks, my guess is GOOG has to see $216, AAPL must see $51 and POT must see $37 for example. I wrote this post on Monday and did not publish as I wanted to add more information to my call. There is no need to add it now as the market has clearly demonstrated where it is heading now ;). 

Pankaj